-1.5 point dogs for tomorrow

[Knicks411]

My guess on 2014 and 2015, was that there a mix of great teams and really bad teams -- the variance was higher than normal, because about a 1/4 of the league could not win at home or on the road.

That was the first thing I thought, but does that make sense? If anything, you would think that would be even less of the issue with more teams right? When Duke/Carolina were 15% of the league, when they were dominant, you'd expect that to hurt the home win%, right? But I dunno.

2014 had BC, which won 4 games, and Va tech, which won 2, 2015 had Va tech win 2 and Ga tech win 3. Obviously they aren't winning a lot of games anywhere. But in 2016 you had BC walk the table (0-18) and Wake only won 2 league games. Less dominance at the top though.

Probably just a fluke thing I would have to guess. BC won 4 league games in 2014, like I said; but 3 of them on the road. We lost 4 games all year that season, but 2 of them were at home.

 

[jncuse]

That was the first thing I thought, but does that make sense? If anything, you would think that would be even less of the issue with more teams right? When Duke/Carolina were 15% of the league, when they were dominant, you'd expect that to hurt the home win%, right? But I dunno.

2014 had BC, which won 4 games, and Va tech, which won 2, 2015 had Va tech win 2 and Ga tech win 3. Obviously they aren't winning a lot of games anywhere. But in 2016 you had BC walk the table (0-18) and Wake only won 2 league games. Less dominance at the top though.

Probably just a fluke thing I would have to guess. BC won 4 league games in 2014, like I said; but 3 of them on the road. We lost 4 games all year that season, but 2 of them were at home.

You are probably right - an anomaly not related to the quality of the teams. But I find this year, with only one really bad team it's hard to win on the road.

 

[AZcuse77]

Duke has lost 4 conference games outright the past year and a half at Home. They are 9-12 against the spread this year alone. I'm not sure what the home/road splits are, but I doubt they cover much at home. Casual bettors usually lose a lot of their bets because they tend to follow popular opinion doesn't have a very good track record in Vegas.

Notre Dame is the complete Opposite. They've covered about 60-65 percent this year. The devil is in the details (or in this case, the math).

In general I was more looking at initial lines vs where it moves from betting public... though Vegas will try to predict this to some degree as well expecting the public to bet Duke more often with the goal being 50 / 5o money on each side.

Notre Dame was projected middle of the pack while Duke was projected to win the ACC, so clearly based on their teams results Notre Dame would have covered more often than Duke since those expectations change gradually... but in general I would think Notre Dame has one of the quietest / least intimidating stadiums (with a good underrated smart team playing in it). You are correct that at least the last few years based on that historical link I posted, Notre Dame has been better than average differential at home... the data would have to go back much more than a few years to not be impacted by individual teams/players and be just based on the stadium. Duke has been just slightly above the average differential at Cameron the last few years.

Even then, it'd be somewhat of a "moving target" as for example everyone thinking our current student fan base being so much worse 'these days' in games like FSU vs 'back in the day' (whether its true or not, though chanting overrated to start the second half was a pretty damning Exhibit A).

 

[Knicks411]

You are probably right - an anomaly not related to the quality of the teams. But I find this year, with only one really bad team it's hard to win on the road.

2003 was the highest home court win%, the last place team was Florida State, who was 14-15 overall, 4-12 in conf play. They were #77 in Ken pom. Technically the worst team was Clemson, 105 in KP, 5-11 overall.

it wasn't a great year for the league, there were 9 teams in the league, only 4 of them made the tournament. Wake was 21st in KP, Duke was 6, Maryland was 13. So your theory makes sense there. No one is really bad, and one possibly great team (Duke), who had a good KP rating, but lost 5 games in the league.

Florida State was 4-4 at home, 0-8 on the road. Clemson was 4-4 at home, 1-7 on the road. Those were the worst teams in the league. Duke was 8-0 at home, but only 3-5 on the road. Etc.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Seeing Cuse -1 some places.

 

[Scotch]

Seeing Cuse -1 some places.

wow, thought it would be more. Vegas likes us more than our record would indicate.

 

[jncuse]

I was just about to post that we have become the favourites at -1. +1.5 was the expected opening line -- surprised to see all the money coming in our way.

Probably had a lot to do with my $800,000 bet for tonight.

 

[jncuse]

I was surprised to see the GTech at Clemson line at -10.5, I saw KP does have say it would be around -9, so it generally makes sense, I am just surprised to see it moved up.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

I'm not sure I get you here. Syracuse was the best road team in the history of the Big East. Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but this year's team has clearly been worse on the road than an aggregate of Syracuse teams from the past 30-40 years. They are also much worse then their home selves in this season. Maybe they have turned things around and it was just too visible due to the nature of their previous 2 away opponents, but they need to prove it tonight. It is why tonight's game is so critical - it can show if they've gotten themselves together or not.

I'm 100 percent agreeing with you . I'm saying this years team has nothing in common with previous years teams with regards to ability to play on the road . I don't think for example that they should have a tight betting line because SU teams of the past have been road warriors

 

[Fly Rodder]

... Probably had a lot to do with my $800,000 bet for tonight.

So, uh, lunch is on you tomorrow?