19-10 (10-8) against the 20th hardest schedule

[JustPherU]

This is a fun sub thread… i would say anywhere from 4 to 7. If the path was Wake, Duke then UNC I would say as high as 4 given two wins over a 1 seed(or two seed).

Move to a top 16 team in the country?

 

[djcon57]

25-10? Have to think we beat at least one of UNC or Duke. I’ll say a 6 or 7.

Yep, I'll go 7

 

[Orangezoo]

Move to a top 16 team in the country?

Depends on the committee and how they value the records in each quadrant. For instance that would mean we go from 2 to 6 quad 1 wins possibly 7 depending on NC State. UNC by comparison has 7 quad 1 wins right now.

Also would depend on how teams in that range do in their conference tourneys. I said 4 to 7 for a reason given there are other factors.

 

[JustPherU]

Depends on the committee and how they value the records in each quadrant. For instance that would mean we go from 2 to 6 quad 1 wins possibly 7 depending on NC State. UNC by comparison has 7 quad 1 wins right now.

Also would depend on how teams in that range do in their conference tourneys. I said 4 to 7 for a reason given there are other factors.

Some of you have a lot more confidence than myself, I think we need to make the ACC Championship just to get in the tournament

 

[Orangezoo]

Some of you have a lot more confidence than myself, I think we need to make the ACC Championship just to get in the tournament

I wouldn’t call it confidence it’s more about scenario and who we play. Beating the top 2 teams in conference both top 12, including a likely 1 seed for the second time along with another tourney team in Wake would position us well in terms of overall resume and quadrant 1/2 wins. So it depends on how everything is looked at. If you are thinking it’s Net or bust than yeah sure maybe as low as a 9/10 but it’s hard for me to think that is the literal outcome given many teams with higher nets are going to sniff the tourney.

 

[JustPherU]

I wouldn’t call it confidence it’s more about scenario and who we play. Beating the top 2 teams in conference both top 12, including a likely 1 seed for the second time along with another tourney team in Wake would position us well in terms of overall resume and quadrant 1/2 wins. So it depends on how everything is looked at. If you are thinking it’s Net or bust than yeah sure maybe as low as a 9/10 but it’s hard for me to think that is the literal outcome given many teams with higher nets are going to sniff the tourney.

Hopefully we can win out and we will get the answer

 

[Orangezoo]

Hopefully we can win out and we will get the answer

From your keyboard to…

 

[storange]

IMO net sucks and. Kencrap bites worse, and I have one of the greatest minds of the last half century backing me on that !

 

[zilo]

I hate to say this, and please roast me later if I'm wrong...but I have a good feeling we are beating both lville and Clemson. Despite the NCst and ND second halfs, this team has looked different recently. Better ball movement, shooting, a pep in their step if you will. Hell, even JT has been playing his best all year and getting involved. I think we'll win out and win at least 1 in the acct.

 

[CorduroyG]

Some of you have a lot more confidence than myself, I think we need to make the ACC Championship just to get in the tournament

Depends on the last 2 games. If we win them both then just 1 acc tourny win may be enough, 2 would be a lock.

If we lose 1 of them i think we’ll need to win acc tourny. Clemson is gonna be a massive game, assuming we beat louisville.

 

[Scooch]

It’s weird to see our overall and conference record, coupled with SOS, and think we’re not even on the bubble.

But we’ve had a weird season. No stubbing of toes against mid major OOC, but horrific blowouts against ranked teams. Holding serve against ACC peers, but no signature wins… and then UNC happened.

The current 3 game win streak is great, but it’s not like we’re killing it over the last 10.

I agree with others though, win the last 2 (no easy feat) and then we can get serious about bubble talk. Win 1 in the ACCT and it’s be ridiculous if we get left out.

 

[Millhouse]

It’s weird to see our overall and conference record, coupled with SOS, and think we’re not even on the bubble.

But we’ve had a weird season. No stubbing of toes against mid major OOC, but horrific blowouts against ranked teams. Holding serve against ACC peers, but no signature wins… and then UNC happened.

The current 3 game win streak is great, but it’s not like we’re killing it over the last 10.

I agree with others though, win the last 2 (no easy feat) and then we can get serious about bubble talk. Win 1 in the ACCT and it’s be ridiculous if we get left out.

How many bubble teams have ever had signature wins though

 

[Scooch]

How many bubble teams have ever had signature wins though

Many?

 

[pwong]

Many?

Some bubble teams have multiple Q1A wins (ex: Prov, Seton Hall)

 

[NKR1978]

How many bubble teams have ever had signature wins though

2007 - Georgetown in the Dome.
2008 - Georgetown again in the Dome
2016 - @ Duke, Battle 4 Atlantis
2017 - 6 FSU, 9 Virginia, 10 Duke
2018 - 18 Clemson
2019 - @ 16 OSU; 18 Louisville

Here are some signature wins by our bubble teams over the years.

 

[Cusefan0307]

How many bubble teams have ever had signature wins though

In 06-07 we beat Villanova, Georgetown and Marquette on the road while going 21-10 in the regular season and still missed the tourney. Marquette and Georgetown were both in the top 25 that year. Nova was a 9 seed.

 

[JustPherU]

I hate to say this, and please roast me later if I'm wrong...but I have a good feeling we are beating both lville and Clemson. Despite the NCst and ND second halfs, this team has looked different recently. Better ball movement, shooting, a pep in their step if you will. Hell, even JT has been playing his best all year and getting involved. I think we'll win out and win at least 1 in the acct.

Everything looks great when shots fall, but our problem is we have to shoot great to win because of the lack of defense.Its just the reality of the situation, our defense leaves a lot to be desired.

 

[Cusefan0307]

One thing to notice is there's a few big 12 teams that have a similar resume to our 2007 team. A terrible OOC schedule coupled with some really good wins in conference. In 2007 we were penalized because we didn't play anyone. Curious if the same still applies in 2024.

 

[blust2i3d4]

It’s weird to see our overall and conference record, coupled with SOS, and think we’re not even on the bubble.

Blame it on massive amount of OOC losses by Florida State, Louisville, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. Especially losses to non-P6 schools. Big 12 schools don't do that, so they can maintain high NET ratings for almost every school in Big 12.

 

[GoSU96]

The argument is that we lack the blow out victory and we won many games because of luck.

That’s a stupid argument

 

[GoSU96]

It’s weird to see our overall and conference record, coupled with SOS, and think we’re not even on the bubble.

But we’ve had a weird season. No stubbing of toes against mid major OOC, but horrific blowouts against ranked teams. Holding serve against ACC peers, but no signature wins… and then UNC happened.

The current 3 game win streak is great, but it’s not like we’re killing it over the last 10.

I agree with others though, win the last 2 (no easy feat) and then we can get serious about bubble talk. Win 1 in the ACCT and it’s be ridiculous if we get left out.

I looked at the ncaa site, where SU is vs major conference teams with comparable records is stark. Q3 losses might explain some, but 40 spots?

 

[Scooch]

I looked at the ncaa site, where SU is vs major conference teams with comparable records is stark. Q3 losses might explain some, but 40 spots?

I won’t even pretend to understand NET. It’s a complete mystery to me.

By most every metric I’ve seen used for decades to evaluate tourney worthiness, we should be squarely “on the Boeheim” right now.

 

[bnoro]

The argument is that we lack the blow out victory and we won many games because of luck.

If you are citing KenPom's "luck" data point, you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how that is used.

Luck in KenPom isn't factored into any calculation of his ranking. It just ranks a team exceeding or not living up to his ranking's expectations.

 

[MikeSU02]

I won’t even pretend to understand NET. It’s a complete mystery to me.

By most every metric I’ve seen used for decades to evaluate tourney worthiness, we should be squarely “on the Boeheim” right now.

This is my feeling as well. I would say 'bubble trending to being in, pending we don't have a bad loss before the end of the year'.

But instead we are like 85th in something and the Big Whatever is the greatest conference in the history of college basketball.

 

[NKR1978]

If you are citing KenPom's "luck" data point, you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how that is used.

Luck in KenPom isn't factored into any calculation of his ranking. It just ranks a team exceeding or not living up to his ranking's expectations.

Calling that "luck" is so messed up. "Could my rankings be wrong, nope, they're just lucky."