Orangezoo
In the wind
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 41,016
- Like
- 96,001
Ok since this topic is belabored to death with everyone so assured of their points I wanted to take a look at some things I'm sure SWC probably already has and it didn't get the attention or bump it deserves in making arguments.
That said I looked at Ken Pom ratings, Post Season Results and number of players on the roster who played an NBA game be it drafted or not.
Three assumptions were added
1) this year's team having three guys who will see NBA minutes at some point
2) Any player of that level even playing a game represents a talent level even for practice given they are counted every year they are on the roster. Talent is talent.
3) Players who left after via Txfr( BJ and Kadary) were included for the year they were here.
So I used the categories of post season performance from 2002 to this past year into 4 buckets. No tournament for SU, First or second round loss, Reached Sweet 16, Reached Past the Sweet 16. Here are the numbers.
No Tournament:
Median Ken Pom was 51, Average 49.
Median NBA players was 3, Average 2.8
1st/2nd Round loss:
Median Ken Pom was 18, Average 14
Median NBA players was 4, Average 3.6
Reached Sweet 16:
Median Ken Pom was 30, Average 26
Median NBA players was 3, Average 3
Went past Sweet 16:
Median Ken Pom was 7, Average 12
Median NBA Players was 3.5, Average 3.75
Other notes:
Ken Pom Data only shows back to 02. If I had 20 more years of it I absolutely would have added it.
The deviation in these numbers is not wild. The teams that went past the sweet 16 were Elite as teams not necessarily because of how many guys they had in the league.
The range in Ken Pom numbers was 3 to 56. 2002 year was the 56 and 2010 was the 3.
The overall Median in Ken Pom over 19 yrs was 39. The average over that time period was 31.
The top NBA player years were 6 in 2012, 5 in 2010 and 5 in 2014. The 3 FFs had 2, 4 and 3 respectively.
2002-2008 had a Ken Pom Average of 35 ( of course including the Title and the BET magic) There were 3 missed tourneys and 2 early tourney exits)
2015 - 2021 had a Ken Pom Average of 44. There were 3 missed tourneys including the suspension and CoVid along with one early exit.
2009- 2014 was the most elite run of seasons and likely compares only to the mid/late 80s through early nineties. The average ken Pom was 10.
General conclusion: I looked at Sagarin and Bartoviik too. Both are friendlier to recent seasons so I went with the most conservative analytics guy given the sentiment of late. You could argue that is negative bias but I think when you look at this the main driver in all of this is regular season rankings and regular season records. It may benefit to analyze schedule difficulty more too as one could argue that we had benefits there in the past. Post season results and metrics tell a tale that is far less spread out than simply number of wins and Poll rankings.
There is obviously more data out there but I think it's fair to say that opinions are biased outside of the data and the anecdotal day to day leads to bias over the holistic picture.
That said I looked at Ken Pom ratings, Post Season Results and number of players on the roster who played an NBA game be it drafted or not.
Three assumptions were added
1) this year's team having three guys who will see NBA minutes at some point
2) Any player of that level even playing a game represents a talent level even for practice given they are counted every year they are on the roster. Talent is talent.
3) Players who left after via Txfr( BJ and Kadary) were included for the year they were here.
So I used the categories of post season performance from 2002 to this past year into 4 buckets. No tournament for SU, First or second round loss, Reached Sweet 16, Reached Past the Sweet 16. Here are the numbers.
No Tournament:
Median Ken Pom was 51, Average 49.
Median NBA players was 3, Average 2.8
1st/2nd Round loss:
Median Ken Pom was 18, Average 14
Median NBA players was 4, Average 3.6
Reached Sweet 16:
Median Ken Pom was 30, Average 26
Median NBA players was 3, Average 3
Went past Sweet 16:
Median Ken Pom was 7, Average 12
Median NBA Players was 3.5, Average 3.75
Other notes:
Ken Pom Data only shows back to 02. If I had 20 more years of it I absolutely would have added it.
The deviation in these numbers is not wild. The teams that went past the sweet 16 were Elite as teams not necessarily because of how many guys they had in the league.
The range in Ken Pom numbers was 3 to 56. 2002 year was the 56 and 2010 was the 3.
The overall Median in Ken Pom over 19 yrs was 39. The average over that time period was 31.
The top NBA player years were 6 in 2012, 5 in 2010 and 5 in 2014. The 3 FFs had 2, 4 and 3 respectively.
2002-2008 had a Ken Pom Average of 35 ( of course including the Title and the BET magic) There were 3 missed tourneys and 2 early tourney exits)
2015 - 2021 had a Ken Pom Average of 44. There were 3 missed tourneys including the suspension and CoVid along with one early exit.
2009- 2014 was the most elite run of seasons and likely compares only to the mid/late 80s through early nineties. The average ken Pom was 10.
General conclusion: I looked at Sagarin and Bartoviik too. Both are friendlier to recent seasons so I went with the most conservative analytics guy given the sentiment of late. You could argue that is negative bias but I think when you look at this the main driver in all of this is regular season rankings and regular season records. It may benefit to analyze schedule difficulty more too as one could argue that we had benefits there in the past. Post season results and metrics tell a tale that is far less spread out than simply number of wins and Poll rankings.
There is obviously more data out there but I think it's fair to say that opinions are biased outside of the data and the anecdotal day to day leads to bias over the holistic picture.
