2018 Syracuse football predictions: Will Orange make a bowl game?

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Trueblue25]

Well, Brent, to be more competitive with FSU than last season would mean beating them. Pull the trigger

 

[Trueblue25]

Nate Mink predicting two 1,000 yard rushers?? Pure chaos in this article.

 

[TheCusian]

Well, Brent, to be more competitive with FSU than last season would mean beating them. Pull the trigger

I have Brent on a real life version of the "ignore user" function on this site

 

[Consigliere]

Interesting that Mink and Bailey, who spend the most time inside the program, have the highest expectations. Both are very high on the offensive and defensive lines supporting their optimisim.

I'm going to be "that guy" for a change. Anything short of six wins will be a disappointment this year. The master plan is for a national-level breakout in 2019 (9+ wins) but we need to take the first step forward starting Friday night. Another 4 win season will lead to some intensive soul searching in the off season throughout the program.

Making it tougher, I don't really buy in to the "weaker schedule than 2017 argument either". Yes, I expect the SOS metrics to bear that out over the course of the year but that may not relate to week-by-week improvements in results. We need to flip two comparative games that we lost last year to wins this year and rationale analysis says we have to flip 3 since repeating an upset of Clemson in Death Valley would be earth shaking. Other than the seven ACC opponents that we played last year and will again this year:

Wagner replaces CCSU - won last year and will win this year.
UConn replaces Central Michigan - won last year and will win this year
@Notre Dame replaces @LSU - lost last year and a potential flip IF we stay healthy and IF the team grows through the season and IF we play our A game but I don't necessarily look at it as an "easier" game than we considered @ LSU to be a year ago today.
@ WMU replaces MTSU - lost last year and our best chance at a flip OOC and IMO a "must" right out of the box. Yes Western Michigan is a solid mid major. Yes, the coaches familiarity with the Syracuse program adds some intrigue. But if we are who we think we are this game should not be in question. And with our razor thin margin for error a loss may well put us in a hole in the quest for six that we may not be equipped to recover from.
North Carolina replaces @ Miami - lost last year and our best chance for a flip in conference. Getting a much less accomplished opponent in the Dome is the one place the schedule gods definitely favor us.

In terms of the seven common opponents the only one that will be appreciably weaker will be Louisville. Even without Lamar Jackson this is still a very talented team. But having them at home and with the key losses they incurred makes a win more likely that last year.

The remaining six games all look tougher "on paper" to me. BC, WFU, Pitt, FSU, and Clemson retain much of their core, all four programs are on an upswing and four of the five go from home to road games. N.C. State lost a lot on defense but the stability and depth in that program has improved markedly over the last few years and they return 9 of 11 starters on offense. Looks like an October shootout in the Dome. In short repeating two wins from this group will be a challenge. We likely will need 3 to go bowling.

 

[TheCusian]

Interesting that Mink and Bailey, who spend the most time inside the program, have the highest expectations. Both are very high on the offensive and defensive lines supporting their optimisim.

I'm going to be "that guy" for a change. Anything short of six wins will be a disappointment this year. The master plan is for a national-level breakout in 2019 (9+ wins) but we need to take the first step forward starting Friday night. Another 4 win season will lead to some intensive soul searching in the off season throughout the program.

Making it tougher, I don't really buy in to the "weaker schedule than 2017 argument either". Yes, I expect the SOS metrics to bear that out over the course of the year but that may not relate to week-by-week improvements in results. We need to flip two comparative games that we lost last year to wins this year and rationale analysis says we have to flip 3 since repeating an upset of Clemson in Death Valley would be earth shaking. Other than the seven ACC opponents that we played last year and will again this year:

Wagner replaces CCSU - won last year and will win this year.
UConn replaces Central Michigan - won last year and will win this year
@Notre Dame replaces @LSU - lost last year and a potential flip IF we stay healthy and IF the team grows through the season and IF we play our A game but I don't necessarily look at it as an "easier" game than we considered @ LSU to be a year ago today.
@ WMU replaces MTSU - lost last year and our best chance at a flip OOC and IMO a "must" right out of the box. Yes Western Michigan is a solid mid major. Yes, the coaches familiarity with the Syracuse program adds some intrigue. But if we are who we think we are this game should not be in question. And with our razor thin margin for error a loss may well put us in a hole in the quest for six that we may not be equipped to recover from.
North Carolina replaces @ Miami - lost last year and our best chance for a flip in conference. Getting a much less accomplished opponent in the Dome is the one place the schedule gods definitely favor us.

In terms of the seven common opponents the only one that will be appreciably weaker will be Louisville. Even without Lamar Jackson this is still a very talented team. But having them at home and with the key losses they incurred makes a win more likely that last year.

The remaining six games all look tougher "on paper" to me. BC, WFU, Pitt, FSU, and Clemson retain much of their core, all four programs are on an upswing and four of the five go from home to road games. N.C. State lost a lot on defense but the stability and depth in that program has improved markedly over the last few years and they return 9 of 11 starters on offense. Looks like an October shootout in the Dome. In short repeating two wins from this group will be a challenge. We likely will need 3 to go bowling.

Wake is replacing their QB with a true freshman (at least until Hinton is back) - but either way - they won't be the same as the team we saw last year.

NC State's losses on D make them way more gettable at home.

The difference between UNC and Miami is huge, IMO.

 

[Trueblue25]

I have Brent on a real life version of the "ignore user" function on this site

I like Brent, however his explanation for the incoming L to FSU has been found wanting.

 

[TheCusian]

I like Brent, however his explanation for the incoming L to FSU has been found wanting.

I used to. But it's things like that they slowly ate away at my soul

 

[rrlbees]

Beat WMU, yes. Lose to WMU, no.

Huge, huge game.

 

[Consigliere]

Wake is replacing their QB with a true freshman (at least until Hinton is back) - but either way - they won't be the same as the team we saw last year.

NC State's losses on D make them way more gettable at home.

The difference between UNC and Miami is huge, IMO.

Agree on N.C. State and UNC. Colored them orange in my analysis as the most likely flips.

Wake did lose Wolford which is big, but they return 9 of 11 on offense including the entire OL and 7 of 11 on defense. Combine that with the change in venue doesn't necessarily spell an easier game to me.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I have Brent on a real life version of the "ignore user" function on this site

I’ll take Brent over Carlson or Bailey.

 

[007]

I’ll take Brent over Carlson or Bailey.

FWIW, I think that Jason Murray is, by far, the most knowledgeable of the 4.

 

[AAM62]

Yes.

That is all.

 

[cuse10]

7-5

 

[TheCusian]

Agree on N.C. State and UNC. Colored them orange in my analysis as the most likely flips.

Wake did lose Wolford which is big, but they return 9 of 11 on offense including the entire OL and 7 of 11 on defense. Combine that with the change in venue doesn't necessarily spell an easier game to me.

Maybe. I have a tendency to default to “who has the better QB” - and if the other guy is a freshman and ours is a senior...

 

[MSOrange]

I’ll take Brent over Carlson or Bailey.

I get how you feel about Bailey but I actually have really gotten to like Carlson. Think he does an excellent job on the stories that involve a lot of research like that series about the Dome renovation and I like both his basketball and football writing. He doesn't phone in it at all. Just imho

 

[Chris02M]

6-6 to 8-4 depending on injuries and 1 wr stepping up

 

[pacusewife]

*sigh* Life was so much easier when we could all agree that Bud is the worst.

 

[HtownOrange]

If we get two 1,000 yard rushers, there will be twice as much in the air. At least one receiver will break through with LBs playing closer to the line to slow the run and the DBs stretched thin, Babers will have an extra receiver in the opposition defensive backfield at least 50% of the time. The whole Babers' scheme is to create advantages wherever possible.

Just a guess, but I would not be surprised with a decent to good running game. A decent running game gets 2-4 more wins.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

6 wins, go to a bowl, mission accomplished.

 

[Finwad32]

Yes... must...

 

[SUFaninNJ]

I'm going with 5-7. I've overestimated win totals way too many times in the past. I'm just a bit gun shy.