2021 Defense - Closer Look

[JJReddawg]

With everyone talking up Tony White and stating we had a top defense this year, I wanted to take a deeper dive into the numbers. The “top” defense is largely based on the yards per game, but I feel that may have been largely based on our poor special teams play giving opponents a short field. The numbers below are from Teamrankings.com, which doesn’t factor in FCS opponents. I put the 2021 stats as well the best (or second best) year under Babers.

Yards per Game
2021 - 349.9 y/g (34th)
2018 - 438.1 y/g (91st)

Points per Game
2021 - 26.5 p/g (58th)
2018 - 28.4 p/g (69th)

Points per Play
2021 - 0.391 p/p (72nd)
2018 - 0.371 p/p (58th)

Opp. Red Zone Scoring %
2021 - 86.05% (88th)
2018 - 76.60 (19th)

Opp. Completion %
2021 - 66.35% (111th)
2019 - 54.36% (16th)

Sacks per Game
2021 - 2.5 sacks/g (43rd)
2018 - 3.4 sacks/g (5th)

Takeaways per Game
2021 - 0.5 per game (129th)
2018 - 2.3 per game (4th) (2.2 in both 2019 & 2020)

 

[TheCusian]

With everyone talking up Tony White and stating we had a top defense this year, I wanted to take a deeper dive into the numbers. The “top” defense is largely based on the yards per game, but I feel that may have been largely based on our poor special teams play giving opponents a short field. The numbers below are from Teamrankings.com, which doesn’t factor in FCS opponents. I put the 2021 stats as well the best (or second best) year under Babers.

Yards per Game
2021 - 349.9 y/g (34th)
2018 - 438.1 y/g (91st)

Points per Game
2021 - 26.5 p/g (58th)
2018 - 28.4 p/g (69th)

Points per Play
2021 - 0.391 p/p (72nd)
2018 - 0.371 p/p (58th)

Opp. Red Zone Scoring %
2021 - 86.05% (88th)
2018 - 76.60 (19th)

Opp. Completion %
2021 - 66.35% (111th)
2019 - 54.36% (16th)

Sacks per Game
2021 - 2.5 sacks/g (43rd)
2018 - 3.4 sacks/g (5th)

Takeaways per Game
2021 - 0.5 per game (129th)
2018 - 2.3 per game (4th) (2.2 in both 2019 & 2020)

Yikes. Good work.

 

[JRHEETER]

With everyone talking up Tony White and stating we had a top defense this year, I wanted to take a deeper dive into the numbers. The “top” defense is largely based on the yards per game, but I feel that may have been largely based on our poor special teams play giving opponents a short field. The numbers below are from Teamrankings.com, which doesn’t factor in FCS opponents. I put the 2021 stats as well the best (or second best) year under Babers.

Yards per Game
2021 - 349.9 y/g (34th)
2018 - 438.1 y/g (91st)

Points per Game
2021 - 26.5 p/g (58th)
2018 - 28.4 p/g (69th)

Points per Play
2021 - 0.391 p/p (72nd)
2018 - 0.371 p/p (58th)

Opp. Red Zone Scoring %
2021 - 86.05% (88th)
2018 - 76.60 (19th)

Opp. Completion %
2021 - 66.35% (111th)
2019 - 54.36% (16th)

Sacks per Game
2021 - 2.5 sacks/g (43rd)
2018 - 3.4 sacks/g (5th)

Takeaways per Game
2021 - 0.5 per game (129th)
2018 - 2.3 per game (4th) (2.2 in both 2019 & 2020)

Trust me I don’t disagree but when you look at the NCAA page it lists us at #22 for total defense.

NCAA College Football FBS current team Stats | NCAA.com

Discover the current NCAA FBS Football leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.

www.ncaa.com

 

[JJReddawg]

Trust me I don’t disagree but when you look at the NCAA page it lists us at #22 for total defense.

NCAA College Football FBS current team Stats | NCAA.com

Discover the current NCAA FBS Football leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.

www.ncaa.com

That’s Total Defense in Yards/Game, which includes the Albany game. Teamrankings.com doesn’t factor any FCS opponents into their statistics. Which (generally speaking) takes a fluff game out and gives you the true stats based solely on FBS opponents.

College Football Stats - College FB Team Opponent Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com

College Football opponent yards per game, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

 

[JRHEETER]

That’s Total Defense in Yards/Game, which includes the Albany game. Teamrankings.com doesn’t factor any FCS opponents into their statistics. Which (generally speaking) takes a fluff game out and gives you the true stats based solely on FBS opponents.

College Football Stats - College FB Team Opponent Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com

College Football opponent yards per game, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

Makes more sense then

 

[goofnoff]

There's a variable that doesn't show in these stats. The time your defense is on the field because your offense is always three and out. How do you factor that in?

 

[upperdeck]

if the offense had not faltered the D probably 5-10 min less per game and even occasionally from ahead. who knows where the stats would have led us.. the 2018 team got 2 more TOs per game. thats a huge difference in flipping the field and stopping drives..

 

[CbusCuse]

I dont understand what points per play tells us. A points per possession would tell us much more.

 

[CbusCuse]

I think a few of those categories are ones we knew the 2018 team was really good at. Sacks and turnovers. The 2021 defense was still better overall.

A couple other categories for 2021 defense:

3rd down conversion defense we were 46th.
Rushing yds per game we were 26th.

Pretty good overall.

 

[Xanadu]

I dont understand what points per play tells us. A points per possession would tell us much more.

A lot of big plays, chunk plays, short field possessions, and a high TD to FG %

 

[sufandu]

We were solid at a number of positions this year but it seems like teams were able to take advantage of the hole at safety. Hopefully that is solidified with our incoming transfers and hopefully we don't see a drop at the dline with the all of the graduations there.

 

[PhatOrange]

This D would’ve been historically good if our offense had had a pulse.

 

[Louie and Bouie]

Overall, based upon my review of statistics, the 2021 Defense was middle of the pack in Division I football (60 range). Not great, not horrible. Ranking against other P5 teams we were probably in the lower half nationally.

A lot of the total per game numbers represented above are low because the play count per game was way down based upon our run based offense. Shorter games (less plays) tend to yield lower points and yards. Logically, the less plays run per game results in the lower statistical numbers. Just one of the reasons that Total Defense has become an antiquated measuring stick. Really hard to measure 2021 against some of Babers other teams that ran at a much higher pace of play.

Although any statistical measure or formula can get nitpicked in isolation there are analytical measurements attempting to rank/compare defensive efficiency that, imo, are much better measures for those looking for comparison.

For those interested in a deeper dive into defensive efficiency there are many well thought out advanced statistical sites out there. I currently recommend Football Outsiders DFEI (defensive efficiency measurement) as a good tool. I think that you can peruse without cost still although I have a subscription so not certain on that point.

I do like Tony White as a DC and the scheme he has employed so not trying to rain on the parade. I think its a good scheme for a school like ours that struggles to recruit consistently on the DL. I also like to look for any hope in an improving football program (especially in the off-season). I do believe we need to get better than 2021 on both sides of the ball to accomplish what we want as fans for the program and not just the offensive side.