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With all the excitement this offseason I couldn't resist watching our prime recruiting targets play a few full games, and I saw enough that surprised me that it feels worth sharing a few observations.
Justin Taylor
6'7 (according to his mom, and I believe her) 200 pounds.
Ideal position: Shooting Guard
Best skill: Shooting
Second best skill: Passing
The consensus on the board seems to be that Justin is a more athletic version of Buddy Boeheim. I never liked that comparison - its too much. And after watching him, I still feel like the comparison is too much. Think back to when Buddy put up 30+ against Virginia and San Diego St. in back to back games. Those were two top 10 defenses who knew Buddy was getting the ball, did a good job guarding him, but couldn't stop him because he was hitting really tough shots. Hitting tough shots when he is the focus of opposing D's is what makes Buddy special - and he did some of that in High School too. Justin doesn't have that skill. He's the best player on his team, and in the two games I watched against better competition, at the end of the games when they knew he was getting the ball both teams were able to shut him down consistently. This is not a knock on Justin, really, he's a good shooter, just not in the same class as Buddy. And while he is a good athlete, those highlights where he beats his man off the dribble and dunks on him are more the result of bad High School defenses than Justin's superior athleticism. Don't expect him to be dunking on many ACC caliber defenders. When Justin goes up against a really good defenders he actually looks a lot like Buddy. Dribbling the ball behind his back to deal with defenders crowding him, and using his body to shield the ball while taking fall away shots (its great that he already has these moves in his arsenal!).
Justin is big and strong, can handle contact, and has some crafty moves around the basket as well as a floater, which will serve him well against D's who are sure to want to crowd him. But my favorite part of Justin's game by far is how good a passer he is. Those who remember the 2010 team will remember how good Andy Rautins was. He averaged 15ppg on 40% shooting from 3, but he also averaged over 5 assists per game (one of the most in the league) and the combination of being able to stretch out defenses and also exploit that space with pin point passing was a devastating combination. In my opinion that's going to be Justin's biggest contribution to our team. On D, he's got some work to do to reach the level that college kids play (which is totally normal) but he's got real potential. I like him best at the top of the zone, but as a big strong 6'7 kid with some jumping ability he will look far more at home at the wing of the zone than any of the players you are most likely to want to compare him to.
Kamari Lands
6'8 195
Ideal Position: Forward
Best skill: Shooting
Second best skill: Passing
First and foremost Kamari is a bucket getter. It doesn't matter where he is on the court, if he's open he's going to make you pay. He's an elite shooter with range out to the NBA 3 point line, but if he sees an opening he is more than capable of attacking the basket. Mid range ... he's got that too. Even though Kamari is the 22nd ranked player in his class, he's only the 3rd highest ranked player on his own team. Its a very good team that has two top 10 ranked seven-footers, so they understandably focus on getting the ball inside. As a result Kamari doesn't have a lot of plays run for him, so he's an opportunistic scorer, taking chances when they come to him in the flow of the game. This is a mindset which I think will serve him very well at the next level. Add to all that scoring ability a good handle and a knack for finding open teammates, and as a junior in High School Kamari's offensive game is college ready right now. Defensively Kamari has some work to do. He needs to put on some muscle. He's 6'8, but you'd think he was shorter, he's not a physical presence on the court, and looks and plays more like a guard than a forward right now. Right now he'd probably be better at the top of the zone than the wing, but I'm hoping with two off-season's of weight training he will work his way up to being a proper forward because his skillset is more rare and valuable as a forward than it is as a guard.
Our last three commitments (Williams, Taylor, Lands) are all elite shooters. We should be excited about this. I think Taylor might actually be the worst shooter of the 3! That's how good these guys are. Its looking like when the staff is able to grab the players they want, they prioritize shooting, passing and size. I couldn't be more on board with this.
JJ Starling
6'4, 190
Ideal Position: Shooting guard
Best skill: Shooting
Second best skill: Scoring every other way
Take everything I said about Kamari being a bucket getter and apply it to JJ Starling! Those two players actually have really similar games. Kamari is 3 or 4 inches taller and is a bit better passer which you would think would make him a better player, but I got to watch them play each other (and guard each other) and I thought Starling was better (only very slightly better), mostly because he was more aggressive. This might be because he's a better scorer, or it might just be the result of JJ being the 1 or 2 option on his team while Kamari is the 3 or 4 option on his (much better) team. I'd have to watch them more to be sure.
Like Kamari, JJ is ready to step onto a college court right now and start scoring on all three levels. Nothing else about his game is overly impressive. He can handle the ball really well for a shooting guard, but maybe not quite good enough for a point guard (it would be fine 90% of the time, but he will struggle against the best pressure D, I know this because he struggled when #1 ranked PG Kennedy Chandler pressed him). His D is fine but nothing special, and he's not much of a facilitator by point guard standards. As a shooting guard I would take Starling above all others. He's got some point skills which you probably want, and he's a stone cold assassin scoring the ball, which you definitely want. As a point guard its a tougher choice. Honestly, it feels like a multiple choice test where all the answers are correct, but in recruiting, as in all areas of life, I'll say tie goes to the Syracuse native.
Quadir Copeland
6'6 195 (6'8 according to his dad who I definitely do not believe - Quadir is 6'5 or 6'6 but he is very long)
Ideal position: Point Guard
Best skill: Passing
Second best skill: Pull up jumper from 3
Maybe this is a hot take, but I firmly believe its true ... Quadir has the highest upside of any player we are recruiting, and its not particularly close. If you are reading this I'm going to assume you've already watched his highlights, and thought, just like I do, that his highlight reel looks like the highlight reel of a top 10 or 15 player. So why is he ranked 88th? I'll tell you exactly why. He doesn't play defense. I don't mean he tries to play defense and is bad at it. I don't mean he half-asses it on D. I mean he literally doesn't play any D. He runs down to that end of the court and just stands there with his arms at his side not even pretending to guard anybody. I've never seen anything like it. Its so blatant that I can only imagine its done with the blessing of his coach, which tells me that its probably a conditioning issue. In the two games I watched, Quadir played the entire game without sitting, and accounted for about 50 of his teams 70 points (on average) counting his scoring and assists. And these aren't cheap assists, these are beating his man off the dribble, forcing a double team, splitting it, and finding an open teammate for a lay up Magic Johnson style assists. So he takes on a huge offensive burden and he doesn't sit. His team isn't very good without him, and wouldn't function very well without him. I can only imagine that Quadir saving his energy on the defensive side of the ball is the game plan.
The three or four times a game Quadir does get active on D is when he sees a chance to grab a steal. And when he tries for one he usually gets it. He's very long, and a great athlete. Other than conditioning there is no reason to think he can't be a good defensive player. And if conditioning is the issue he's headed to IMG academy where every player gets a nutritionist and is put through NBA style work outs every day, so conditioning won't be an issue for long. This is part of the reason I think Quadir has the most upside of any of the guys we are recruiting. The other bigger reason is because he's pretty much the perfect offensive weapon. It all starts with his pull up 3 point shot from the top of the key. Its deadly. If you give him space to try to stop him from driving past you, he'll take it every time, and he hardly misses it (not sure he's a great shooter from other areas but he doesn't need to be). So defenders have to play up on him, which is when he's going to blow by you and use his size and length to finish unless you bring a help defender over. But when you do bring in a help defender, he's going to find the open man because he's one of the best passers I've ever seen. Like Kareem's skyhook, there is no good defense for what he does.
Many on the board seem to think Quadir is a passionate player filled with fire, but I see a kid who gets bored sometimes because the game of basketball comes very very easily to him. More than anything I'll be interested in how he treats games with IMG against better competition. If he takes every possession seriously and shows the necessary conditioning, the sky is the limit for this kid, including being a very high draft pick after having a Magic Johnson type freshman year.
Chance Westry
6'5, 195
Ideal position: Point Guard
Best skill: Defense
Second best skill: Passing
If you had to choose one of these players to start for Syracuse tomorrow, Chance is the guy you'd choose. He is the only guy on this list that is already playing college quality defense, and I fully expect him to be an elite defensive presence at the next level. Chance's last High School team featured the #1 ranked point guard in the country (who was also a grade above him) so Chance had to wait his turn at PG and play shooting guard instead. He's not a shooting guard. I believe SU can, and in fact already has, done better than Chance at the shooting guard position. He can shoot the ball a little. He can drive to the basket and score a little. But he's not a great scorer in the half court, and he's practically invisible when he's off the ball. In comparison to Starling and Copeland who are offensive forces of nature, Chance is rather limited scoring the ball. Which is why I think that even though he's the best player right now, and has the highest floor, he actually has the lowest ceiling of the three. Make no mistake, that doesn't mean he's not going to become a very good college player. I think all three of these guys are going to be very good. Chance is going to be an elite defender, and a very good facilitator. He is good at using his athleticism to get to the spots on the floor he want's to be, and while he's not elite at putting the ball in the basket, he's a fantastic passer and fantastic and facilitating teammates scoring.
Kyle Filipowski
6'11 230
Ideal position: Center
Best skill: Defense
Second best skill: Ball Handling
Lets start with the elephant in the room. Flip is the size of Kevin Durant in high school (plus 30 pounds) and he has Kevin Durant's skillset. So why is he the 84th ranked prospect instead of the #1 ranked prospect? I dont have a ton of faith in the guys who do the rankings, but nobody is dim enough to miss on this kid. He absolutely jumps off the screen when you watch him. A near 7 footer handling the ball, dribbling through his legs like a guard, and shooting 3's ... its just not possible that the scouts failed to notice him. The only explanation is that while he has a variety of impressive skills, they are not translating into consistent production yet. If he was averaging, 25 & 10, for example, he'd surely be the #1 or #2 prospect in the country. His averages have to be considerably lower than that.
I was only able to find one full game of his, and it could have just been a bad game, but it certainly provided evidence of my theory that Flip's skills are not yet honed to the point where he can use them to put up consistent high level production. In this game he scored three baskets which were all uncontested dunks. He missed on every 3 he took, and was unable to convert on any of the post up opportunities he had despite being much taller than the guy guarding him. He is an ambitious passer, which I like, but he turned the ball over FAR too often to be given free reign with the ball in a college game. On the plus side, he hit all his free throws.
Defensively I actually like Flip a lot. He's incredibly agile for a guy his size and would do very well on the wing of the zone. That's probably his best defensive position, but I think he'd be a bigger difference maker overall as a center, where he can pull opposing team's shot blockers away from the basket on offense. This is not a Marek Dolezaj at center situation. He's already 6'11, 230 ... the size we are hoping Jesse Edwards is coming into this season after several years on a college weight training program, and a summer training with the Dutch national team.
I wouldn't expect Flip to come in and average double figures in points as a freshman. That doesn't mean we shouldn't want him. Don't underestimate how valuable being able to pull opposing team's shot blockers away from the basket without having to sacrifice any size on defense is. And what if everything does fall into place for him eventually? Sign me up for a few years of fantasizing we end up getting a poor man's Kevin Durant any day!
Justin Taylor
6'7 (according to his mom, and I believe her) 200 pounds.
Ideal position: Shooting Guard
Best skill: Shooting
Second best skill: Passing
The consensus on the board seems to be that Justin is a more athletic version of Buddy Boeheim. I never liked that comparison - its too much. And after watching him, I still feel like the comparison is too much. Think back to when Buddy put up 30+ against Virginia and San Diego St. in back to back games. Those were two top 10 defenses who knew Buddy was getting the ball, did a good job guarding him, but couldn't stop him because he was hitting really tough shots. Hitting tough shots when he is the focus of opposing D's is what makes Buddy special - and he did some of that in High School too. Justin doesn't have that skill. He's the best player on his team, and in the two games I watched against better competition, at the end of the games when they knew he was getting the ball both teams were able to shut him down consistently. This is not a knock on Justin, really, he's a good shooter, just not in the same class as Buddy. And while he is a good athlete, those highlights where he beats his man off the dribble and dunks on him are more the result of bad High School defenses than Justin's superior athleticism. Don't expect him to be dunking on many ACC caliber defenders. When Justin goes up against a really good defenders he actually looks a lot like Buddy. Dribbling the ball behind his back to deal with defenders crowding him, and using his body to shield the ball while taking fall away shots (its great that he already has these moves in his arsenal!).
Justin is big and strong, can handle contact, and has some crafty moves around the basket as well as a floater, which will serve him well against D's who are sure to want to crowd him. But my favorite part of Justin's game by far is how good a passer he is. Those who remember the 2010 team will remember how good Andy Rautins was. He averaged 15ppg on 40% shooting from 3, but he also averaged over 5 assists per game (one of the most in the league) and the combination of being able to stretch out defenses and also exploit that space with pin point passing was a devastating combination. In my opinion that's going to be Justin's biggest contribution to our team. On D, he's got some work to do to reach the level that college kids play (which is totally normal) but he's got real potential. I like him best at the top of the zone, but as a big strong 6'7 kid with some jumping ability he will look far more at home at the wing of the zone than any of the players you are most likely to want to compare him to.
Kamari Lands
6'8 195
Ideal Position: Forward
Best skill: Shooting
Second best skill: Passing
First and foremost Kamari is a bucket getter. It doesn't matter where he is on the court, if he's open he's going to make you pay. He's an elite shooter with range out to the NBA 3 point line, but if he sees an opening he is more than capable of attacking the basket. Mid range ... he's got that too. Even though Kamari is the 22nd ranked player in his class, he's only the 3rd highest ranked player on his own team. Its a very good team that has two top 10 ranked seven-footers, so they understandably focus on getting the ball inside. As a result Kamari doesn't have a lot of plays run for him, so he's an opportunistic scorer, taking chances when they come to him in the flow of the game. This is a mindset which I think will serve him very well at the next level. Add to all that scoring ability a good handle and a knack for finding open teammates, and as a junior in High School Kamari's offensive game is college ready right now. Defensively Kamari has some work to do. He needs to put on some muscle. He's 6'8, but you'd think he was shorter, he's not a physical presence on the court, and looks and plays more like a guard than a forward right now. Right now he'd probably be better at the top of the zone than the wing, but I'm hoping with two off-season's of weight training he will work his way up to being a proper forward because his skillset is more rare and valuable as a forward than it is as a guard.
Our last three commitments (Williams, Taylor, Lands) are all elite shooters. We should be excited about this. I think Taylor might actually be the worst shooter of the 3! That's how good these guys are. Its looking like when the staff is able to grab the players they want, they prioritize shooting, passing and size. I couldn't be more on board with this.
JJ Starling
6'4, 190
Ideal Position: Shooting guard
Best skill: Shooting
Second best skill: Scoring every other way
Take everything I said about Kamari being a bucket getter and apply it to JJ Starling! Those two players actually have really similar games. Kamari is 3 or 4 inches taller and is a bit better passer which you would think would make him a better player, but I got to watch them play each other (and guard each other) and I thought Starling was better (only very slightly better), mostly because he was more aggressive. This might be because he's a better scorer, or it might just be the result of JJ being the 1 or 2 option on his team while Kamari is the 3 or 4 option on his (much better) team. I'd have to watch them more to be sure.
Like Kamari, JJ is ready to step onto a college court right now and start scoring on all three levels. Nothing else about his game is overly impressive. He can handle the ball really well for a shooting guard, but maybe not quite good enough for a point guard (it would be fine 90% of the time, but he will struggle against the best pressure D, I know this because he struggled when #1 ranked PG Kennedy Chandler pressed him). His D is fine but nothing special, and he's not much of a facilitator by point guard standards. As a shooting guard I would take Starling above all others. He's got some point skills which you probably want, and he's a stone cold assassin scoring the ball, which you definitely want. As a point guard its a tougher choice. Honestly, it feels like a multiple choice test where all the answers are correct, but in recruiting, as in all areas of life, I'll say tie goes to the Syracuse native.
Quadir Copeland
6'6 195 (6'8 according to his dad who I definitely do not believe - Quadir is 6'5 or 6'6 but he is very long)
Ideal position: Point Guard
Best skill: Passing
Second best skill: Pull up jumper from 3
Maybe this is a hot take, but I firmly believe its true ... Quadir has the highest upside of any player we are recruiting, and its not particularly close. If you are reading this I'm going to assume you've already watched his highlights, and thought, just like I do, that his highlight reel looks like the highlight reel of a top 10 or 15 player. So why is he ranked 88th? I'll tell you exactly why. He doesn't play defense. I don't mean he tries to play defense and is bad at it. I don't mean he half-asses it on D. I mean he literally doesn't play any D. He runs down to that end of the court and just stands there with his arms at his side not even pretending to guard anybody. I've never seen anything like it. Its so blatant that I can only imagine its done with the blessing of his coach, which tells me that its probably a conditioning issue. In the two games I watched, Quadir played the entire game without sitting, and accounted for about 50 of his teams 70 points (on average) counting his scoring and assists. And these aren't cheap assists, these are beating his man off the dribble, forcing a double team, splitting it, and finding an open teammate for a lay up Magic Johnson style assists. So he takes on a huge offensive burden and he doesn't sit. His team isn't very good without him, and wouldn't function very well without him. I can only imagine that Quadir saving his energy on the defensive side of the ball is the game plan.
The three or four times a game Quadir does get active on D is when he sees a chance to grab a steal. And when he tries for one he usually gets it. He's very long, and a great athlete. Other than conditioning there is no reason to think he can't be a good defensive player. And if conditioning is the issue he's headed to IMG academy where every player gets a nutritionist and is put through NBA style work outs every day, so conditioning won't be an issue for long. This is part of the reason I think Quadir has the most upside of any of the guys we are recruiting. The other bigger reason is because he's pretty much the perfect offensive weapon. It all starts with his pull up 3 point shot from the top of the key. Its deadly. If you give him space to try to stop him from driving past you, he'll take it every time, and he hardly misses it (not sure he's a great shooter from other areas but he doesn't need to be). So defenders have to play up on him, which is when he's going to blow by you and use his size and length to finish unless you bring a help defender over. But when you do bring in a help defender, he's going to find the open man because he's one of the best passers I've ever seen. Like Kareem's skyhook, there is no good defense for what he does.
Many on the board seem to think Quadir is a passionate player filled with fire, but I see a kid who gets bored sometimes because the game of basketball comes very very easily to him. More than anything I'll be interested in how he treats games with IMG against better competition. If he takes every possession seriously and shows the necessary conditioning, the sky is the limit for this kid, including being a very high draft pick after having a Magic Johnson type freshman year.
Chance Westry
6'5, 195
Ideal position: Point Guard
Best skill: Defense
Second best skill: Passing
If you had to choose one of these players to start for Syracuse tomorrow, Chance is the guy you'd choose. He is the only guy on this list that is already playing college quality defense, and I fully expect him to be an elite defensive presence at the next level. Chance's last High School team featured the #1 ranked point guard in the country (who was also a grade above him) so Chance had to wait his turn at PG and play shooting guard instead. He's not a shooting guard. I believe SU can, and in fact already has, done better than Chance at the shooting guard position. He can shoot the ball a little. He can drive to the basket and score a little. But he's not a great scorer in the half court, and he's practically invisible when he's off the ball. In comparison to Starling and Copeland who are offensive forces of nature, Chance is rather limited scoring the ball. Which is why I think that even though he's the best player right now, and has the highest floor, he actually has the lowest ceiling of the three. Make no mistake, that doesn't mean he's not going to become a very good college player. I think all three of these guys are going to be very good. Chance is going to be an elite defender, and a very good facilitator. He is good at using his athleticism to get to the spots on the floor he want's to be, and while he's not elite at putting the ball in the basket, he's a fantastic passer and fantastic and facilitating teammates scoring.
Kyle Filipowski
6'11 230
Ideal position: Center
Best skill: Defense
Second best skill: Ball Handling
Lets start with the elephant in the room. Flip is the size of Kevin Durant in high school (plus 30 pounds) and he has Kevin Durant's skillset. So why is he the 84th ranked prospect instead of the #1 ranked prospect? I dont have a ton of faith in the guys who do the rankings, but nobody is dim enough to miss on this kid. He absolutely jumps off the screen when you watch him. A near 7 footer handling the ball, dribbling through his legs like a guard, and shooting 3's ... its just not possible that the scouts failed to notice him. The only explanation is that while he has a variety of impressive skills, they are not translating into consistent production yet. If he was averaging, 25 & 10, for example, he'd surely be the #1 or #2 prospect in the country. His averages have to be considerably lower than that.
I was only able to find one full game of his, and it could have just been a bad game, but it certainly provided evidence of my theory that Flip's skills are not yet honed to the point where he can use them to put up consistent high level production. In this game he scored three baskets which were all uncontested dunks. He missed on every 3 he took, and was unable to convert on any of the post up opportunities he had despite being much taller than the guy guarding him. He is an ambitious passer, which I like, but he turned the ball over FAR too often to be given free reign with the ball in a college game. On the plus side, he hit all his free throws.
Defensively I actually like Flip a lot. He's incredibly agile for a guy his size and would do very well on the wing of the zone. That's probably his best defensive position, but I think he'd be a bigger difference maker overall as a center, where he can pull opposing team's shot blockers away from the basket on offense. This is not a Marek Dolezaj at center situation. He's already 6'11, 230 ... the size we are hoping Jesse Edwards is coming into this season after several years on a college weight training program, and a summer training with the Dutch national team.
I wouldn't expect Flip to come in and average double figures in points as a freshman. That doesn't mean we shouldn't want him. Don't underestimate how valuable being able to pull opposing team's shot blockers away from the basket without having to sacrifice any size on defense is. And what if everything does fall into place for him eventually? Sign me up for a few years of fantasizing we end up getting a poor man's Kevin Durant any day!
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