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[QUOTE="fieldystick, post: 4642965, member: 8152"]
22 Duke wins: 7/13/17/17/20 - 1 top 10, 5 top 20

Loyola wins would be: top 5 / borderline top 5 / borderline top 10. Zero guarantee that Georgetown is top 10. Best case is top 5/top 5/top 10, but it's not a lock. Going to be tough to find any other top 20 win for Loyola.

As for losses, I think it's just as likely that they end up with 4 bad losses as 2 bad losses. Army could very well not get back in, and they have to lose to someone in the PLT, who also might not get/be in the top 20. 3 bad losses feels most likely to me.

Loyola's RPI is going to be markedly worse than Duke 2022 RPI. Their SOS is currently slightly worse than 2022 Duke SOS (4 spots worse), but I wouldn't be surprised to see this drift further away as some of the power conference teams have their weaker opponents drop of out of their 10 factored in games.

It felt to me like the only reason that anyone argued Duke into the field last year was the RPI number beside their name. I was never impressed by their case and it made me sick feeling like I had to veer toward them at the end (because it seemed like what the committee was going to do based on historical precedent). I had Loyola seeded 2 weeks ago, so my entire problem with their case is their recent bad losses being too much to overcome with what they have left on their schedule - not anything inherent with what they had done up until that point.
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