2026 Bracketology

[mark79]

UVA is fascinating. A few weeks ago I thought people had overreacted as they had a lot of young talent that was eventually gonna come together and it has. Now, however, it's almost flipped to the other extreme. I have no issue with them being in right now, bubble isn't overly strong and that ND win is gonna carry a lot of cache. They have also taken care of business against the mid majors save for Towson.

The real test for them is the next three weeks, 2 of the 3 games on the road and a team in Duke they haven't beaten in the regular season for literally two decades. I think they just need to win one of the three and hammer Drexel and they are in.

If your Syracuse, UVA winning this week would be a good outcome. It almost guarantees that SU makes the ACC tourney unless you believe Duke is gonna beat ND and UNC and SU is gonna lose the three remaining ACC games (unlikely but possible). I am really curious to see how UVA looks this weekend. I think that offense legit but I also think ND's offense is overrated and I want to see how that defense handles Duke's weapons. A win would be very impressive.

Living in Charlottesville, I follow UVa Lacrosse quite closely and attend most of their home games. If they were to beat ND and Duke back to back they’d have a pretty good case. Not sure I see them beating Duke away from home. That Duke team gave Syracuse all it could handle.

 

[wgdsr]

Wild to see UVA in but the numbers are what they are.

Still crazy to see Hopkins seeded (I know the numbers are currently in their favor) after this past weekend and with the doubts I have about how they'll finish the season.

B10 down to 2. As noted that's the conference that will suffer most from any potential bid thievery.

Curious how the committee may try to spread the ACC out. In this one there's a whole pod 4/5 without an ACC team. In fact, 4/5 in the bottom half of the bracket. That feels crazy to me, I'd think the committee would try to split them up more but I recognize that they are not obligated to.

That top half is (all things considered) pretty favorable for Princeton.

why is it wild to see uva in?

 

[Lax Mouse]

why is it wild to see uva in?

Just because of how the season started, not because of how it's turned out.

They're definitely fighting their way back in!

 

[wgdsr]

Just because of how the season started, not because of how it's turned out.

They're definitely fighting their way back in!

ha! it's definitely not over. some teams need more wins. uva is one of them.

 

[DomeHolmes]

Newest Nathan Bracket, a little late Thai week due to HW.

1. Syracuse vs Winner of LIU and Albany
2. UNC vs Winner of Towson vs Jacksonville
3. Princeton vs Sacred Heart
4. Richmond vs Georgetown
5. Harvard vs Army
6. Duke vs Yale
7. Cornell vs Penn State
8. Ohio State vs Notre Dame(once again)

First 3 teams out are Boston U, Maryland and Rutgers.

Ohio state 8 seed?
Yale in?
Army in?
BU first out?

Some reaches here I think

 

[Hawknate144]

Ohio state 8 seed?
Yale in?
Army in?
BU first out?

Some reaches here I think

This is probably true, that's just how the RPI SOR shakes out based on my predictions, also in real life Yale wouldn't make it because they failed to make the Ivy Tournament, which hilariously.helped them as it allowed Penn to fall behind them.

I make no claims that this is accurate,.it's just the algorithm.

BU also wasn't the first one out, I just listed them weird. Also just realized that BU wouldn't actually be first 3 out because I thought it was above .500 to get an at large bid, you just have to be at .500, meaning UVA, Hopkins and Penn would all be eligible and ahead of them. In that case it's Maryland, Hopkins, Penn.

The way the model works the BU win against Army more than Balances out losing to Colgate and none of their other losses or projected losses subtract much at all. Strength of Schedule is the name of the game when you work with RPI

 

[Hawknate144]

RPI SOR is not what the committee uses, but it's the closest thing public ally available, so that's why I use it.