2026 Bracketology

[Powellfan]

Others have made very intelligent Bracketology predictions, I think this is the first from a major outlet. Perhaps we can just put all the predictions in this thread?

Obviously a very favorable draw for the Orange.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) IVY/Princeton vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-AMERICA EAST/Vermont winner
(8) North Carolina vs. BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins

Annapolis, Md.
(5) ATLANTIC 10/Richmond vs. Penn State
(4) Duke vs. BIG EAST/Denver

Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
(6) Harvard vs. Army

Annapolis, Md.
(7) PATRIOT/Boston University vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart
(2) Syracuse vs. NEC/Robert Morris-COASTAL/Towson winner

Last three included: Army, Ohio State, Penn State
First three on the outside: Yale, Cornell, Saint Joseph’s

 

[DMVCuseLax]

Cuse would be in good position with this bracket.

 

[nocohalo]

NCAA RPI has Cuse at 2. https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/49262

 

[FloridaCuse]

NCAA RPI has Cuse at 2. https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/49262

Patrick Stevens includes that. Thanks for the website.

 

[Hawknate144]

Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) IVY/Princeton vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-AMERICA EAST/Vermont winner
(8) North Carolina vs. BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins

Annapolis, Md.
(5) ATLANTIC 10/Richmond vs. Penn State
(4) Duke vs. BIG EAST/Denver

Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
(6) Harvard vs. Army

Annapolis, Md.
(7) PATRIOT/Boston University vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart
(2) Syracuse vs. NEC/Robert Morris-COASTAL/Towson winner

Last three included: Army, Ohio State, Penn State
First three on the outside: Yale, Cornell, Saint Joseph’s

7 seed BU drawing Sacred Heart would be Crazy

 

[nyclax]

lol this would be a dream draw for the cuse. i am very skeptical that BU will be a seeded team...they may not make the field at all

 

[Hawknate144]

For how crazy my weekly brackets are, they are very normal compared to this

 

[nocohalo]

lol this would be a dream draw for the cuse. i am very skeptical that BU will be a seeded team...they may not make the field at all

Maybe not seeded but they have a very real chance of having 10 wins before the regular season and also have a home game against Harvard. If they win the PL without losing any other league games I can definitely see them as a seeded team with their RPI.

 

[FloridaCuse]

For completeness I'm reposting here Mark's first cut from last week. He says he'll do his next one next week.

 

[nyclax]

Maybe not seeded but they have a very real chance of having 10 wins before the regular season and also have a home game against Harvard. If they win the PL without losing any other league games I can definitely see them as a seeded team with their RPI.

the RPI is prob not staying there...outside of harvard their remaining games are against 38, 39, 47, 48, 55 rpi. lose to any of those teams and they will drop like an anchor...meanwhile beating them wont do much while other teams around them catch up in RPI from league play...

if they beat harvard, that changes the equation...

 

[FloridaCuse]

For completeness I'm reposting here Mark's first cut from last week. He says he'll do his next one next week.

Here's an abbreviated one Mark did for this week and shared with me.

 

[cuselaxss26]

Maby i’m missing something or i truely don’t know what or how rpi works. How is duke 4th with the schedule they played so far ?

 

[orange79]

Maby i’m missing something or i truely don’t know what or how rpi works. How is duke 4th with the schedule they played so far ?

The RPI formula is (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.5) + (OOWP * 0.25).

WP = winning percentage
OWP = opponent's winning percentage
OOWP = opponent's opponents winning percentage

My guess is that since 6 of Duke's 7 wins are against those teams with RPI's of 21 and higher (and hence, don't have great records), the OWP and OOWP numbers are dragging them down a bit. That will change when they get into the meat of their schedule.

 

[cuselaxss26]

The RPI formula is (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.5) + (OOWP * 0.25).

WP = winning percentage
OWP = opponent's winning percentage
OOWP = opponent's opponents winning percentage

My guess is that since 6 of Duke's 7 wins are against those teams with RPI's of 21 and higher (and hence, don't have great records), the OWP and OOWP numbers are dragging them down a bit. That will change when they get into the meat of their schedule.

yea i was more saying how are they 4th n not back further. I don’t get how they’re even at 4th with who they played. I assume they be 8-15 somewhere. Mean they have joes who’s got good rpi. But besides st joes their next best think 30s something.

 

[orange79]

yea i was more saying how are they 4th n not back further. I don’t get how they’re even at 4th with who they played. I assume they be 8-15 somewhere. Mean they have joes who’s got good rpi. But besides st joes their next best think 30s something.

Bellarmine and Utah are in the mid-20's. Not great, I grant you. But higher than one would think.

 

[MD Cuse Fan]

Minor note but the south quarterfinal site is at Delaware this year not Annapolis as is listed.

 

[DomeHolmes]

lol this would be a dream draw for the cuse. i am very skeptical that BU will be a seeded team...they may not make the field at all

If BU loses to Harvard, and Army to UNC (both likely) the Patriot will likely be a one bid conference. No more opportunities for big wins.

Same with Big east. Cuse and Duke may make them a one bid league this weekend as well. They definitely will be if both lose.

Of the non power 3 I think only Richmond had a good enough resume to make it without winning their tourney. Still has ND though.

In the BIG, UMD, Butgers, Hop and Michigan have a combined zero top 20 wins. Ohio State weak schedule. Penn st 2 bad losses. May be tough to get 3 in.

 

[DomeHolmes]

yea i was more saying how are they 4th n not back further. I don’t get how they’re even at 4th with who they played. I assume they be 8-15 somewhere. Mean they have joes who’s got good rpi. But besides st joes their next best think 30s something.

The teams they beat are just above average on the whole. Same with Richmond. Very similar profiles. Mostly, No losses really helps regardless of who you play, (see sacred heart).

BU and Hop are opposite. Extremely hard OOC on the whole, so their opponents win % of about 70% counts 50% of RPI.

A simplification is 1000% winning vs .500 teams gives you the same RPI as as .667 winning percentage playing other .667 teams. Essentially how Duke and Richmond are doing it vs how BU and Hop are doing it.

Some of these teams plus St Joes, Rutgers etc run the risk of no quality wins on the resume despite good RPI. The committee has shown with Army that RPI alone does not get you in.

We already have 6 top 20 (poll) wins. Princeton has 5. UNC and ND and PSU 3 each. No one else has more than two. RPI right now does not mean much for anyone except for these five teams.

 

[wgdsr]

The teams they beat are just above average on the whole. Same with Richmond. Very similar profiles. Mostly, No losses really helps regardless of who you play, (see sacred heart).

BU and Hop are opposite. Extremely hard OOC on the whole, so their opponents win % of about 70% counts 50% of RPI.

A simplification is 1000% winning vs .500 teams gives you the same RPI as as .667 winning percentage playing other .667 teams. Essentially how Duke and Richmond are doing it vs how BU and Hop are doing it.

Some of these teams plus St Joes, Rutgers etc run the risk of no quality wins on the resume despite good RPI. The committee has shown with Army that RPI alone does not get you in.

We already have 6 top 20 (poll) wins. Princeton has 5. UNC and ND and PSU 3 each. No one else has more than two. RPI right now does not mean much for anyone except for these five teams.

yes, though army hasn't been inside the rpi window. all evidence points to you have to have a committee that values how the rules are actually written (which is rare) or you have to get inside that window.

 

[wgdsr]

If BU loses to Harvard, and Army to UNC (both likely) the Patriot will likely be a one bid conference. No more opportunities for big wins.

Same with Big east. Cuse and Duke may make them a one bid league this weekend as well. They definitely will be if both lose.

Of the non power 3 I think only Richmond had a good enough resume to make it without winning their tourney. Still has ND though.

In the BIG, UMD, Butgers, Hop and Michigan have a combined zero top 20 wins. Ohio State weak schedule. Penn st 2 bad losses. May be tough to get 3 in.

what's important 1st and foremost for all conferences and certainly the big east and pl as conferences that annually try to be the 4th league that may catch a stray is conference record. of course it'll ultimately matter what kind of quality backs those games and records for positioning of that conference ooc record.

the big east is 17-26, 9 games below .500. that's no bueno. they are gonna be 1 bid, just like last year with a similar record. g'town finished 10-4? ish AND won their conference tourney and finished 16 rpi.

pl record is actually looking pretty good. 29-17 and they've played some good conferences. bu and navy, army any of whom might be in 1/2 way decent spots for rpi if they can run thru the conference. most recently, bu or army have been right outside the cutline (and i didn't check those years' ooc record, but i doubt it's as good as this year's).

if uva finishes anywhere near .500 (certainly not a guarantee), they're gonna be a top 20 win. same with navy if they finish on an upswing.

fwiw, cuse looks like they have 3 sure fire top 20 wins thus far. st joe's is only gonna maybe sneak in if they go undefeated except for richmond. denver probably can only take 1 more loss, and that's unlikely. penn has a very difficult ooc schedule, they're going to need to finish .500 or more likely slightly above to be top 20.