2026 Olympic Hockey

[jncuse]

(MOD - If you think this should be merged with other thread, than feel free to do it... I'm just thinking this particular event might generate enough interest on its own)

Some surprising results on Day 1.

Slovakia beat Finland.
Sweden beat Italy, but by a score of only 5-2. And the Italians do not have good players. I'm thinking the gambling line was probably something like Sweden -7 (I'm guessing).

The expectation was that Canada, US, Sweden, Finland would get the 4 bye's after preliminaries, but that may not happen. The other problem with Finland losing is it could damage their seed, resulting in them being a seed around 7 or 8.

And if you are Canada or the USA and are the #1 or #2 seed after the preliminaries, you were hoping not to get Finland in the quarterfinals. And if they are a #7 or #8 seed you are going to get them.

 

[jncuse]

Canada vs US.
Canada has the gamebreakers offensively (not that US is bad)... but the US has better D and better goaltending.

I do wonder if Canada made a mistake by taking the exact same eight D as the four nations. They went with familiarity and what worked instead of taking who are playing best now... I thought a few could have been flipped out ... Parayko and Harley have not been great. They also don't have a great second D for the power play.

The US does have a lot of guys who are having somewhat underwhelming seasons though (some due to injury others just performance declines). But the Olympics, especially a short format, can change things.

 

[jncuse]

The US does have one advantage over Canada. Luck of the draw - 3 weak opponents for US vs 2 for Canada. US does have inside edge on the #1 seed, which should help matchup wise when it gets to the quarterfinals and semi-finals.

The downside is they will have played nobody before their first meaningful quarterfinal game.

 

[jncuse]

Binnington was great towards the end of the Four Nations, and in particular the final US game (struggled a bit early).

He has been even worse this year with St Louis... not even their primary starter and an .864 save%. Terrible stuff.

Yes he was great in the 4 Nations Final, but Canada has to go with Logan Thompson or Adin Hill before him.

Goal is a glaring hole for Canada, but maybe like last year we get a big performance in the key game.

 

[OburgOrange]

Canada’s goaltending and D will decide how far they go

 

[Chip]

USA getting the screw job in this hockey game so far.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[BuffOrange]

I'm no expert but how is Caufield not on the team? The local show in Buffalo I listen to was saying the 1980 Herb Brooks quote of "I want the right players, not the best" philosophy has done more harm than good since then. That sounds right to me.

USA getting the screw job in this hockey game so far.

Offsides challenge, the dumbest rule in all sports bar none. Nobody hates fans more than hockey.

 

[jncuse]

Choas in the Sweden/Finland/Slovakia group, means that Sweden is likely headed to be the #7 seed once the quarter-finals start.

Which means they would face either Canada or the US in the quarterfinals, depending who is the #2 seed.

The race for the #1 seed between Canada and US will be critical to avoid playing Sweden. US and Canada will be looking to pump their remaining opponents.

Canada is +9 after two games with France left.
US is +4, with Denmark and Germany left.

France is a bit easier than Germany (I think), so it will be important for the US to win by at least 6 goals today against Denmark, to at least have the differential lead heading into Sunday's last games.

 

[jncuse]

The one advantage for the 2 seed is they would likely get the easier semi final matchup if they beat Sweden in the quarters.

But I still don’t think that fully makes up for being the ones that faces Sweden in the quarters.

I think this Canada fan was a little too quick to lock us into the 1 and US in the 2. We do have the advantage right now, but it could go either way. But his post does demonstrate path for 1 and 2 seed.