21 games to go

[rocfan44]

My thoughts are that the boys need to win 16 of the last 21 to probably get into the tournament. Even so, they may also need one or two in the ACCT. When you look at it that way, it seems inevitable that we most likely will be on the outside looking in this year.

 

[brian williams]

Agree.

 

[kirbivore]

Lehigh W
Cornell W
Georgia Tech W
UVA L
@Miami L
@Wake Forest W
Pitt W
FSU L
Clemson W
@Duke L
@Pitt W
@Wake L
@NC St L
L'ville L
@BC W
@VT L
BC W
@ND L
Duke L
@UNC L
Miami W

15-16 regular season

 

[jncuse]

I don't think we need to go 16-5 to make the tournament.

This is a discussion we have often had at this time of year when we struggle to various degrees in OOC and people tend to consistently overshoot what we need to do to get in the tournament at this time of the year. I can probably pull out similar discussions almost every year on this where I said we don't need to reach such a high target.

I think we need to go 14-7 to get on the bubble line (although not full confidence on that), and 15-6 to clear it. **** And that does consider the fact that the ACC is really stinky. And after the ACC likely goes 3-7 this weekend it becomes a little harder (i.e. little less confident about that 14-7 figure then before this weekend)

**** Note I am not making any conclusions on our ability to get to 14-7 or 15-6, just on what record we need to get in.

Whether its 14-7, 15-6, 16-5, my confidence level of achieving that record is low.

Will pull some Barttorvik NET projection / resume charts later to try to support my position.

 

[kirbivore]

I don't think we need to go 16-5 to make the tournament.

This is a discussion we have often had at this time of year when we struggle to various degrees in OOC and people tend to consistently overshoot what we need to do to get in the tournament at this time of the year. I can probably pull out similar discussions almost every year on this where I said we don't need to reach such a high target.

I think we need to go 14-7 to get on the bubble line (although not full confidence on that), and 15-6 to clear it. **** And that does consider the fact that the ACC is really stinky. And after the ACC likely goes 3-7 this weekend it becomes a little harder (i.e. little less confident about that 14-7 figure then before this weekend)

**** Note I am not making any conclusions on our ability to get to 14-7 or 15-6, just on what record we need to get in.

Whether its 14-7, 15-6, 16-5, my confidence level of achieving that record is low.

Will pull some Barttorvik NET projection / resume charts later to try to support my position.

The poor ACC performance is why I think there will be a 12-8 or 13-7 ACC record left out on Selection Sunday

 

[jncuse]

The poor ACC performance is why I think there will be a 12-8 or 13-7 ACC record left out on Selection Sunday

The OP had it 15-5 which I think is too high. My early read is that 13-7 puts us on the line (which could be good enough or not), and 14-6 puts us over. For me, it looked like 12-8 was in play before the Georgetown game -- but not anymore.

So yes there could conceivably be an ACC team that misses the tournament at 13-7. There will almost certainly be at least one team that gets to 12-8 that misses, unless the ACC is the most balanced league ever and there are no teams at 12-8 and 13-7. And that will not help any teams either.