#3 on Kenpom

[OrangeJEM]

Behind Villanova??? Please explain.

 

[pfister1]

Well it's only natural they beat us by something like 16 head to head...right?

 

[Bornorange]

Our luck factor is just lousy.

 

[Cuse315Pat]

It's just because we played Colgate and Binghamton who are a combined like 3-28. And we haven't blown out many teams, we've got a lot of close single digit wins. All these statistical rankings take that kind of stuff into account. The only thing I really think matters at this point is we are 8-0 against tournament projected teams, which is best in the country as of right now. We aren't exactly winning many games in pretty fashion. But we're winning and playing smart in the final minutes. I'll take that experience over a #1 rating in KenPom/RPI/BPI etc.

 

[jncuse]

If we had 2 more points or allowed 2 less points, we would be ahead of Villanova.

The ranking system is based on all 18 games, not just 1 game. Its a system meant to rank 350 teams based on all your possessions furing the year, not taking a few games and deciding those are the most important to rank the top 5.

Most here can probably make good arguments for top 5, but nobody has the "eyes" to properly evaluate team 15 onward. We just don't see them enough. And that is what is this is system trying to do - an unbiased way to evaluate all teams.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Because Ken Pomeroy is bored and personally trolling this Board.

 

[jncuse]

It's just because we played Colgate and Binghamton who are a combined like 3-28. And we haven't blown out many teams, we've got a lot of close single digit wins. All these statistical rankings take that kind of stuff into account. The only thing I really think matters at this point is we are 8-0 against tournament projected teams, which is best in the country as of right now. We aren't exactly winning many games in pretty fashion. But we're winning and playing smart in the final minutes. I'll take that experience over a #1 rating in KenPom/RPI/BPI etc.

Playing Colgate and Binghamton in itself will not impact your KP rating, like it does the RPI. If you beat them by as much as is expected, your KP rating will stay the same.

BTW, who are your 8 projected teams right now? Beating a 14/15/16 seed is not really relevant because they are not really tournament level teams.

I have

Pitt
UNC
Cal
Baylor
Minnesota
Villanova


Are you including Indiana? They were looking on the right path after beating Wisconsin, but that loss yesterday was terrible.

 

[Cuse315Pat]

Playing Colgate and Binghamton in itself will not impact your KP rating, like it does the RPI. If you beat them by as much as is expected, your KP rating will stay the same.

BTW, who are your 8 projected teams right now? Beating a 14/15/16 seed is not really relevant because they are not really tournament level teams.

I have

Pitt
UNC
Cal
Baylor
Minnesota
Villanova

Are you including Indiana?

I know, each rating is different. RPI BPI Kenpom all use some similair and separate stats, that was my whole point. Like you said, giving up 2 less or scoring 2 more pts would have made the difference, I was kinda making the same point.

I am actually using Lunardi's resume tracker that he posted two days ago. He had us at 7-0 before beating Pitt. Let me try to find the article

 

[Dave85]

He's just mad we busted his bracket last year!

 

[Cuse315Pat]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-col...e-joe-lunardi-bracket-math-college-basketball

Here you go. Even though it's an insider article, you can see the top four resumes coming into this weekend.

 

[jncuse]

I am actually using Lunardi's resume tracker that he posted two days ago. He had us at 7-0 before beating Pitt. Let me try to find the article

Thanks. Must be including a team. like St. Francis.

But you are correct. At the end of the day, we have played enough good teams to control our own destiny about a #1 seed, in spite of the rankings which we may fall a few spots in. If we lose that #1 its only because we stumble on the road to end the schedule.

 

[Knicks411]

Was actually including St. Johns.

 

[Cuse315Pat]

Thanks. Must be including a team. like St. Francis.

But you are correct. At the end of the day, we have played enough good teams to control our own destiny about a #1 seed, in spite of the rankings which we may fall a few spots in. If we lose that #1 its only because we stumble on the road to end the schedule.

Very true. At some point we are going to most likely stumble, its been what, 35 years since a team went undefeated?

Anyways, I'll just paste the resume tracker here rather than the link I posted for better convenience.
Coming into this weekend, these were the four best listed resumes by Lunardi.

• Wisconsin Badgers, 8-1 (N-West Virginia, N-St. John's, Florida, N-Saint Louis, at Virginia, Marquette, Iowa, Illinois)
• Syracuse Orange, 7-0 (N-Minnesota, N-California, N-Baylor, Indiana, at St. John's, Villanova, North Carolina)
• Kansas Jayhawks, 7-4 (N-Duke, N-New Mexico, Georgetown, Toledo, at Oklahoma, Kansas State, at Iowa State)
• Michigan State Spartans, 6-1 (N-Kentucky, N-Oklahoma, at Texas, at Indiana, Ohio State, Minnesota)

 

[jncuse]

Was actually including St. Johns.

Lunardi had St. John's in the tournament? That is awful.

EDIT - maybe he is including all quality victories (and given its a top 100 road win, it still is OK for the resume)

 

[cusetown1]

He's mad we beat his darling Pitt team. This was a joke btw, probably should include that in my post.

 

[Knicks411]

Lunardi had St. John's in the tournament? That is awful.

EDIT - maybe he is including all quality victories (and given its a top 100 road win, it still is OK for the resume)

Not in the tournament; it was like teams in the hunt or something. I can;t imagine they are anywhere near the field right now at 0-5 in the league, but a win on the road against the 70th team, give or take, is definitely equal to a top 50 win at home, so sure, why not include it.

Btw, I dont think those 4 were his top 4 resumes, necessarily.

Just look at a few of the records already posted by selected teams against their fellow tournament contenders (quality wins in parenthesis with "N" meaning neutral court):

 

[Cuse315Pat]

Not in the tournament; it was like teams in the hunt or something. I can;t imagine they are anywhere near the field right now at 0-5 in the league, but a win on the road against the 70th team, give or take, is definitely equal to a top 50 win at home, so sure, why not include it.

Btw, I dont think those 4 were his top 4 resumes, necessarily.

Eh you may be right. The headline reads "Wisconsin, Syracuse among teams with best résumés midway through season" I actually thought it said are teams. Hard to tell by the wording there.

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah, the reason I say that is he has Arizona #1 overall and I would have to think his #1 overall team has one of the top 4 resumes. But it wasn't totally clear

 

[Timonen]

It's just because we played Colgate and Binghamton who are a combined like 3-28. And we haven't blown out many teams, we've got a lot of close single digit wins. All these statistical rankings take that kind of stuff into account. The only thing I really think matters at this point is we are 8-0 against tournament projected teams, which is best in the country as of right now. We aren't exactly winning many games in pretty fashion. But we're winning and playing smart in the final minutes. I'll take that experience over a #1 rating in KenPom/RPI/BPI etc.

Their rating system is a fancy statistical model. It's REAL easy to include criteria along the lines of "if team A is rated behind Team B by <5 slots, has equal or greater the number of wins AND has beaten Team B, move Team B behind Team A." Got forbid you statistically include a touch of common sense.

 

[Cuse315Pat]

Their rating system is a fancy statistical model. It's REAL easy to include criteria along the lines of "if team A is rated behind Team B by <5 slots, has equal or greater the number of wins AND has beaten Team B, move Team B behind Team A." Got forbid you statistically include a touch of common sense.

Got forbid I use common sense? lol. I'm pretty sure our SOS and such would be higher if we we hadn't played two teams who have 28 losses combined or so. That was my common sense point. As well as my point of us having so many single digit wins. Like I said, if we blew out every team we played by 25 pts, our margin of victory would be 25, changing each and every ratings system.
Nor was I only speaking on the term of one single rating system, which you would have noticed if you tried. Also, common sense would tell you the only way you could be an undisputed #1 ranking is if you were #1 in every statistical rating, which is never going to happen. Each has it's flaws, which is why they keep creating new formulas. God* forbid I HAVE to make more sense.
It's like someone else stated - if we had given up a couple less points or scored a couple more points, we would be ahead of Nova in the Ken Pom rating. But the original post makes it seem like there's no way we are behind them.
I was simply trying to point out that teams with the #1 Ken Pom don't win national titles every year and such. There's a reason they have BPI, RPI, SOS, Ken Pom, That Sagirus thing, and many others. Those who created these formulas will tell you, they aren't perfect. Otherwise there wouldn't be more than one of them. Ya know?

 

[Cuse315Pat]

My other point was what many would agree about. We are playing tournament type games right now and grinding out wins in the end, which gives us experience that matters more than statistics. Otherwise, we mine as well hand Kansas or Zona the NC title right now since statistics and ratings apparently mean everything.

Perfect example - Not only is Nova ahead of us in Ken Pom, Pitt is still ahead of us in BPI. Also, Pitt has a better SOS than us. Statistically, they are better than us and higher rated. But guess what? We somehow beat them?

 

[Timonen]

Got forbid I use common sense? lol. I'm pretty sure our SOS and such would be higher if we we hadn't played two teams who have 28 losses combined or so. That was my common sense point. As well as my point of us having so many single digit wins. Like I said, if we blew out every team we played by 25 pts, our margin of victory would be 25, changing each and every ratings system.
Nor was I only speaking on the term of one single rating system, which you would have noticed if you tried. Also, common sense would tell you the only way you could be an undisputed #1 ranking is if you were #1 in every statistical rating, which is never going to happen. Each has it's flaws, which is why they keep creating new formulas. God* forbid I HAVE to make more sense.
It's like someone else stated - if we had given up a couple less points or scored a couple more points, we would be ahead of Nova in the Ken Pom rating. But the original post makes it seem like there's no way we are behind them.
I was simply trying to point out that teams with the #1 Ken Pom don't win national titles every year and such. There's a reason they have BPI, RPI, SOS, Ken Pom, That Sagirus thing, and many others. Those who created these formulas will tell you, they aren't perfect. Otherwise there wouldn't be more than one of them. Ya know?

Huh? I'm not even talking about you or whether our placement is incorrect. I'm talking about kenpom's model parameters and whether they make sense relative to reality. Nova over us is not reflective of reality...and that would be easy to account for with a simple tweak.

Relax

 

[Cuse315Pat]

Huh? I'm not even talking about you or whether our placement is incorrect. I'm talking about kenpom's model parameters and whether they make sense relative to reality. Nova over us is not reflective of reality...and that would be easy to account for with a simple tweak.

Relax

Ahh, well you quoted me saying god forbid I used common sense lol I figured you were being serious

 

[orangefan13]

We have only had 2 games in doubt the last 2 minutes, st francis and pitt.

Forget all this win margin garbage every team is blemished outside of Syracuse AZ, and Witchita state.

zona has three games that they only won by 2 or 4, so why are they any more unanimous than us?

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Huh? I'm not even talking about you or whether our placement is incorrect. I'm talking about kenpom's model parameters and whether they make sense relative to reality. Nova over us is not reflective of reality...and that would be easy to account for with a simple tweak.

Relax

That would just be an arbitrary fix, the point of his system is the Pyth score, not where teams are ranked numerically. And the difference between SU and Nova based on Pyth is almost nothing. Essentially if SU and Nova played 1000 times on a neutral court Nova would be expected to win 505 and SU 495.