4 x 16, how it could shake out...

[A Clockwork Orange]

If universities are looking to go to a 4 x 16 set up with the "best" 64 teams available, they're almost there. Here' what the landscape looks like right now:

SEC
13 teams
Big 10
12 teams
ACC
14 teams
PAC 12
12 teams

That leaves 13 teams to still join.

Here's the breakdown of teams still looking to join one of these leagues (I'm going to limit this to teams and conferences that have a realistic chance to join one of the "Big 4":

Big East
Rutgers
West Virginia
Louisville
UConn
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU

Big 12
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Mizzou
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech

Mountain West
(crossed out members are leaving the conference for the Big East)
Air Force
Boise State
Colorado State
New Mexico
San Diego State
TCU
UNLV
Wyoming
(future members)
Fresno State
Nevada
Hawaii

WAC
(crossed out members are leaving the conference for the MWC)
Fresno State
Hawaii
Idaho
Louisiana Tech
Nevada
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Utah State
(future members)
UT San Antonio
Texas State

Conference USA
UAB
UCF
ECU
Marshall
Memphis
Southern Miss.
Houston
Rice
SMU
UTEP
Tulane
Tulsa

Independents
Notre Dame
BYU

Others
Army
Navy

That leaves 49 teams for 13 spots. Let's assume no one from the WAC will go anywhere. That gets us down to 42 teams. Let's also assume no one from CUSA save the outside possibility of UCF gets in. That gets us to 31. I'm also going to assume no one from the MWC goes anywhere, except for the possibility of Boise State. That gets us to 22 teams for 13 spots. I will also assume that Army and Navy will be left out. So now we're down to 20. Here are those teams:

Big East
Rutgers
West Virginia
Louisville
UConn
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU

Big 12
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Mizzou
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech

Mountain West

Boise State

Conference USA
UCF

Independents
Notre Dame
BYU

So let's say the Pac 12 does take Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech.

Lets also say Rutgers and UConn go to the ACC (maybe Notre Dame here, I just don't think Notre Dame will do it.

And I'll make the leap based on rumor that the SEC takes WVU.

That gets the SEC to 14, the ACC to 16 and the Pac 12 to 16. It leaves the SEC with two spots, and the Big 10 with 3.

So we have five spots for these teams:

Big East
Louisville
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU

Big 12
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Mizzou

Mountain West

Boise State

Conference USA
UCF

Independents
Notre Dame
BYU

I think it makes sense that the Big 10 will get Notre Dame (someone will at some point). Mizzou, and Iowa State are naturals for the Big 10.

So now the only conference we have is the SEC. The SEC has these choices at this point:

Big East
Louisville
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU

Big 12
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State

Mountain West

Boise State

Conference USA
UCF

Independents
BYU

I can see TCU in the SEC, but no one else. I think all this points to the fact that one of the Big 4 conferences will still be raided (ACC seems the most likely culprit). It also means there are a lot of teams spread across the country with some great tradition in all sports that could potentially be left out in the cold.

What it comes down to is what the SEC will do. That conference stirs the drink. If the Pac 12 does get the four Big 12 teams, it will be interesting to see what the SEC does at that point.

This also makes abundantly clear that Notre Dame has two choices at this point: The ACC or the Big 10.

So basically there are 10 teams out there that should REALLY be sweating bullets right now. They are:

Louisville
USF
Cincy
TCU
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State
Boise State
UCF
BYU

NOW, a 5x14 set up means six extra slots, who knows, maybe that's where we're headed although all the history on this subject has always been 4x16. It's going to be an interesting next couple of years.

 

[All4SU]

Those teams, and six others will make up a 5th 16-team conference, and try like hell to get recognition.

 

[rrlbees]

Actually until very recent talk, most of the history has been talk of 5x16 or 5x14. Superconference talk has gone on for over a decade.

Sent from my DROIDX

 

[VaSaltine]

good analysis

 

[OrangeXtreme]

5 x 14 = 70 teams.

That's all current 68 BCS teams, plus 2 wildcards. Everyone finds a home.

5 x 16 = 80. That's fully 2/3 of all FBS teams. Wow! You're either in or you're out.

 

[SaltineWarrior]

I see 5x16 being a real possibility. Way too many schools that matter will be on the sidelines with just 4x16. I really think Louisville gets an SEC invite because they have a great basketball tradition (something the SEC could use some help ) and a natural rival with UK. And Kansas has an even better basketball tradition and a solid football tradition that even if hey are left out of the 4x16 model, they almost have to be involved in some way with whatever teams make up the "best of the rest."

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

Actually until very recent talk, most of the history has been talk of 5x16 or 5x14. Superconference talk has gone on for over a decade.

Sent from my DROIDX

Athlon had a cover article probably 16, 17 years ago that talked about the coming of the superconferences. It's been around for a very long time, but most of what I see currently and historically trends towards the 4 x 16 model.

 

[Cusey]

I see 5x16 being a real possibility. Way too many schools that matter will be on the sidelines with just 4x16. I really think Louisville gets an SEC invite because they have a great basketball tradition (something the SEC could use some help ) and a natural rival with UK. And Kansas has an even better basketball tradition and a solid football tradition that even if hey are left out of the 4x16 model, they almost have to be involved in some way with whatever teams make up the "best of the rest."

Yep. The more I look at this, the more convinced I am that we'll almost have to wind up with 5x16.

 

[StillJimPA]

If universities are looking to go to a 4 x 16 set up with the "best" 64 teams available, they're almost there. Here' what the landscape looks like right now:

SEC
13 teams
Big 10
12 teamsu
ACC
14 teams

A very good analysis, but I would offer a couple of alternatives.. Kansas is a better choice for the big 10 than Iowa State.

An interesting couple of years? Think in terms of weeks......single digits
PAC 12
12 teams

That leaves 13 teams to still join.

Here's the breakdown of teams still looking to join one of these leagues (I'm going to limit this to teams and conferences that have a realistic chance to join one of the "Big 4":

Big East
Rutgers
West Virginia
Louisville
UConn
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU

Big 12
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Mizzou
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech

Mountain West
(crossed out members are leaving the conference for the Big East)
Air Force
Boise State
Colorado State
New Mexico
San Diego State
TCU
UNLV
Wyoming
(future members)
Fresno State
Nevada
Hawaii

WAC
(crossed out members are leaving the conference for the MWC)
Fresno State
Hawaii
Idaho
Louisiana Tech
Nevada
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Utah State
(future members)
UT San Antonio
Texas State

Conference USA
UAB
UCF
ECU
Marshall
Memphis
Southern Miss.
Houston
Rice
SMU
UTEP
Tulane
Tulsa

Independents
Notre Dame
BYU

Others
Army
Navy

That leaves 49 teams for 13 spots. Let's assume no one from the WAC will go anywhere. That gets us down to 42 teams. Let's also assume no one from CUSA save the outside possibility of UCF gets in. That gets us to 31. I'm also going to assume no one from the MWC goes anywhere, except for the possibility of Boise State. That gets us to 22 teams for 13 spots. I will also assume that Army and Navy will be left out. So now we're down to 20. Here are those teams:

Big East
Rutgers
West Virginia
Louisville
UConn
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU

Big 12
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Mizzou
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech

Mountain West

Boise State

Conference USA
UCF

Independents
Notre Dame
BYU

So let's say the Pac 12 does take Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech.

Lets also say Rutgers and UConn go to the ACC (maybe Notre Dame here, I just don't think Notre Dame will do it.

And I'll make the leap based on rumor that the SEC takes WVU.

That gets the SEC to 14, the ACC to 16 and the Pac 12 to 16. It leaves the SEC with two spots, and the Big 10 with 3.

So we have five spots for these teams:

Big East
Louisville
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU

Big 12
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Mizzou

Mountain West

Boise State

Conference USA
UCF

Independents
Notre Dame
BYU

I think it makes sense that the Big 10 will get Notre Dame (someone will at some point). Mizzou, and Iowa State are naturals for the Big 10.

So now the only conference we have is the SEC. The SEC has these choices at this point:

Big East
Louisville
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU

Big 12
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State

Mountain West

Boise State

Conference USA
UCF

Independents
BYU

I can see TCU in the SEC, but no one else. I think all this points to the fact that one of the Big 4 conferences will still be raided (ACC seems the most likely culprit). It also means there are a lot of teams spread across the country with some great tradition in all sports that could potentially be left out in the cold.

What it comes down to is what the SEC will do. That conference stirs the drink. If the Pac 12 does get the four Big 12 teams, it will be interesting to see what the SEC does at that point.

This also makes abundantly clear that Notre Dame has two choices at this point: The ACC or the Big 10.

So basically there are 10 teams out there that should REALLY be sweating bullets right now. They are:

Louisville
USF
Cincy
TCU
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State
Boise State
UCF
BYU

NOW, a 5x14 set up means six extra slots, who knows, maybe that's where we're headed although all the history on this subject has always been 4x16. It's going to be an interesting next couple of years.