A Clockwork Orange
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- Aug 14, 2011
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If universities are looking to go to a 4 x 16 set up with the "best" 64 teams available, they're almost there. Here' what the landscape looks like right now:
SEC
13 teams
Big 10
12 teams
ACC
14 teams
PAC 12
12 teams
That leaves 13 teams to still join.
Here's the breakdown of teams still looking to join one of these leagues (I'm going to limit this to teams and conferences that have a realistic chance to join one of the "Big 4":
Big East
Rutgers
West Virginia
Louisville
UConn
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU
Big 12
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Mizzou
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
Mountain West
(crossed out members are leaving the conference for the Big East)
Air Force
Boise State
Colorado State
New Mexico
San Diego State
TCU
UNLV
Wyoming
(future members)
Fresno State
Nevada
Hawaii
WAC
(crossed out members are leaving the conference for the MWC)
Fresno State
Hawaii
Idaho
Louisiana Tech
Nevada
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Utah State
(future members)
UT San Antonio
Texas State
Conference USA
UAB
UCF
ECU
Marshall
Memphis
Southern Miss.
Houston
Rice
SMU
UTEP
Tulane
Tulsa
Independents
Notre Dame
BYU
Others
Army
Navy
That leaves 49 teams for 13 spots. Let's assume no one from the WAC will go anywhere. That gets us down to 42 teams. Let's also assume no one from CUSA save the outside possibility of UCF gets in. That gets us to 31. I'm also going to assume no one from the MWC goes anywhere, except for the possibility of Boise State. That gets us to 22 teams for 13 spots. I will also assume that Army and Navy will be left out. So now we're down to 20. Here are those teams:
Big East
Rutgers
West Virginia
Louisville
UConn
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU
Big 12
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Mizzou
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
Mountain West
Boise State
Conference USA
UCF
Independents
Notre Dame
BYU
So let's say the Pac 12 does take Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech.
Lets also say Rutgers and UConn go to the ACC (maybe Notre Dame here, I just don't think Notre Dame will do it.
And I'll make the leap based on rumor that the SEC takes WVU.
That gets the SEC to 14, the ACC to 16 and the Pac 12 to 16. It leaves the SEC with two spots, and the Big 10 with 3.
So we have five spots for these teams:
Big East
Louisville
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU
Big 12
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Mizzou
Mountain West
Boise State
Conference USA
UCF
Independents
Notre Dame
BYU
I think it makes sense that the Big 10 will get Notre Dame (someone will at some point). Mizzou, and Iowa State are naturals for the Big 10.
So now the only conference we have is the SEC. The SEC has these choices at this point:
Big East
Louisville
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU
Big 12
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State
Mountain West
Boise State
Conference USA
UCF
Independents
BYU
I can see TCU in the SEC, but no one else. I think all this points to the fact that one of the Big 4 conferences will still be raided (ACC seems the most likely culprit). It also means there are a lot of teams spread across the country with some great tradition in all sports that could potentially be left out in the cold.
What it comes down to is what the SEC will do. That conference stirs the drink. If the Pac 12 does get the four Big 12 teams, it will be interesting to see what the SEC does at that point.
This also makes abundantly clear that Notre Dame has two choices at this point: The ACC or the Big 10.
So basically there are 10 teams out there that should REALLY be sweating bullets right now. They are:
Louisville
USF
Cincy
TCU
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State
Boise State
UCF
BYU
NOW, a 5x14 set up means six extra slots, who knows, maybe that's where we're headed although all the history on this subject has always been 4x16. It's going to be an interesting next couple of years.
SEC
13 teams
Big 10
12 teams
ACC
14 teams
PAC 12
12 teams
That leaves 13 teams to still join.
Here's the breakdown of teams still looking to join one of these leagues (I'm going to limit this to teams and conferences that have a realistic chance to join one of the "Big 4":
Big East
Rutgers
West Virginia
Louisville
UConn
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU
Big 12
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Mizzou
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
Mountain West
(crossed out members are leaving the conference for the Big East)
Air Force
Boise State
Colorado State
New Mexico
San Diego State
UNLV
Wyoming
(future members)
Fresno State
Nevada
Hawaii
WAC
(crossed out members are leaving the conference for the MWC)
Idaho
Louisiana Tech
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Utah State
(future members)
UT San Antonio
Texas State
Conference USA
UAB
UCF
ECU
Marshall
Memphis
Southern Miss.
Houston
Rice
SMU
UTEP
Tulane
Tulsa
Independents
Notre Dame
BYU
Others
Army
Navy
That leaves 49 teams for 13 spots. Let's assume no one from the WAC will go anywhere. That gets us down to 42 teams. Let's also assume no one from CUSA save the outside possibility of UCF gets in. That gets us to 31. I'm also going to assume no one from the MWC goes anywhere, except for the possibility of Boise State. That gets us to 22 teams for 13 spots. I will also assume that Army and Navy will be left out. So now we're down to 20. Here are those teams:
Big East
Rutgers
West Virginia
Louisville
UConn
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU
Big 12
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Mizzou
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
Mountain West
Boise State
Conference USA
UCF
Independents
Notre Dame
BYU
So let's say the Pac 12 does take Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech.
Lets also say Rutgers and UConn go to the ACC (maybe Notre Dame here, I just don't think Notre Dame will do it.
And I'll make the leap based on rumor that the SEC takes WVU.
That gets the SEC to 14, the ACC to 16 and the Pac 12 to 16. It leaves the SEC with two spots, and the Big 10 with 3.
So we have five spots for these teams:
Big East
Louisville
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU
Big 12
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Mizzou
Mountain West
Boise State
Conference USA
UCF
Independents
Notre Dame
BYU
I think it makes sense that the Big 10 will get Notre Dame (someone will at some point). Mizzou, and Iowa State are naturals for the Big 10.
So now the only conference we have is the SEC. The SEC has these choices at this point:
Big East
Louisville
USF
Cincy
(future members)
TCU
Big 12
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State
Mountain West
Boise State
Conference USA
UCF
Independents
BYU
I can see TCU in the SEC, but no one else. I think all this points to the fact that one of the Big 4 conferences will still be raided (ACC seems the most likely culprit). It also means there are a lot of teams spread across the country with some great tradition in all sports that could potentially be left out in the cold.
What it comes down to is what the SEC will do. That conference stirs the drink. If the Pac 12 does get the four Big 12 teams, it will be interesting to see what the SEC does at that point.
This also makes abundantly clear that Notre Dame has two choices at this point: The ACC or the Big 10.
So basically there are 10 teams out there that should REALLY be sweating bullets right now. They are:
Louisville
USF
Cincy
TCU
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State
Boise State
UCF
BYU
NOW, a 5x14 set up means six extra slots, who knows, maybe that's where we're headed although all the history on this subject has always been 4x16. It's going to be an interesting next couple of years.