6.7% 3-point shooting: What were the odds???!!!

[OrlandoCuse]

We shot like crap...absolute crap. I guess the overall number was 1-29 outside the paint. I don't have stats inside and outside the paint, but I do have stats on our 3-point shooting trends this year.

Anyway, long story (and a lot of math) short, I did some calculations to figure out the approximate probability of us shooting 6.7% (1-15) from 3 in a game:

Basically, the probability of that occurring was .0087 (0.87%, slightly less than a 1 percent chance of happening; approx -2.38 deviations from the mean on a normal distribution for you fellow stat/math geeks).

In gambler's terms, the odds of it happening were 1 in 115.

In sport's fan terms, it was a once in every four seasons performance.

Rest easy, Orangenation, it is highly improbable that we shoot that bad again this season.

 

[HoustonCuse]

What mean/std dev are you using for the 3-pt shooting? I think 0.0087 is more like a 3 sigma number than 2.38 isn't it?

 

[orangefan13]

well we shot above 60% from 3 against uconn the game before :noidea:

 

[jekelish]

What mean/std dev are you using for the 3-pt shooting? I think 0.0087 is more like a 3 sigma number than 2.38 isn't it?

 

[OrlandoCuse]

What mean/std dev are you using for the 3-pt shooting? I think 0.0087 is more like a 3 sigma number than 2.38 isn't it?

Using only per game 3point shooting average (not including tonight's game), our mean was 35.56% with a standard deviation of 11.56%. +/-0.0013 is the 3 standard deviation cutoff on a normal distribution (z table).

 

[OrlandoCuse]

well we shot above 60% from 3 against uconn the game before :noidea:

The probability of shooting that well is actually very close to shooting as poorly as we did tonight: 0.99%. In layman's terms, one out of every 101 games.

If you believe these things average out, taking our 10-16 performance and adding it with the 1-15 performance, we get 11-31 for 35.5%, which is basically our 3 point shooting average. Go figure!

 

[br801]

We shot like crap...absolute crap. I guess the overall number was 1-29 outside the paint. I don't have stats inside and outside the paint, but I do have stats on our 3-point shooting trends this year.

Anyway, long story (and a lot of math) short, I did some calculations to figure out the approximate probability of us shooting 6.7% (1-15) from 3 in a game:

Basically, the probability of that occurring was .0087 (0.87%, slightly less than a 1 percent chance of happening; approx -2.38 deviations from the mean on a normal distribution for you fellow stat/math geeks).

In gambler's terms, the odds of it happening were 1 in 115.

In sport's fan terms, it was a once in every four seasons performance.

Rest easy, Orangenation, it is highly improbable that we shoot that bad again this season.

Yeah, now tell me the odds of shooting 1-29 outside the paint and winning.

 

[DNABB5]

Well this post is timely...

I was watching the game at Buffalo Wild Wings on a 2hour lunch and they have those monday trivia nights...

"Who was the Alpha Beta with his arm sleeve cut out in revenge of the Nerds?"

I knew it was Ogre in a half tick and, while sitting at the bar, repeated his classic line above.

 

[BleedsOrange44]

It was the second worst three-point shooting performance in the last 15 years. It was the first win for Syracuse with only one made three-pointer since 1/23/10 against Marquette. They went 1-8 in that game and won 76-71. It was the first such win on the road since 1/30/08 at DePaul, where the Orange won 60-55 despite going 1-13 from the outside.

 

[swish7]

well we shot above 60% from 3 against uconn the game before :noidea:

Well we shot 20% in the 7 games prior to that. It seems the outliers are the 40%+ games

 

[AZOrange]

What was Triche's percentage of hitting the rim? yikes!

 

[HoustonCuse]

Using only per game 3point shooting average (not including tonight's game), our mean was 35.56% with a standard deviation of 11.56%. +/-0.0013 is the 3 standard deviation cutoff on a normal distribution (z table).

Occurs to me that this shooting may not be a normal distribution. Have you fitted the data to see what distribution it best maps to?

 

[SoBeCuse]

Well this post is timely...

I was watching the game at Buffalo Wild Wings on a 2hour lunch and they have those monday trivia nights...

"Who was the Alpha Beta with his arm sleeve cut out in revenge of the Nerds?"

I knew it was Ogre in a half tick and, while sitting at the bar, repeated his classic line above.

He's awesome but for some reason his role in Bloodsport sticks out more. He plays Ray Jackson, the guy who gets stomped on by Chong Li. Nonsense, obviously...

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Occurs to me that this shooting may not be a normal distribution. Have you fitted the data to see what distribution it best maps to?

It's normal.

 

[cap2nine]

From a college basketball analyst stand point and not a mathematical stand point, I'd be very inclined to just throw the 1 for 15 performance out the window along with the 10 of 16 performance against UConn. Those are the types of games and stats that skew averages but may not give a clear picture of how efficient (or inefficient) the team actually is. Like most of the fans that post here, I have watched every second and every shot of every SU game this year, oftentimes more than once. The truth is this team is a mediocre (at best) long-range shooting group. The real strength, offensively, for this team is getting to and finishing around the rim. Obviously we can't play the entire game getting out in transition and finishing off of turnovers. But if you look at our half-court sets, we are far more effective and successful when driving to the basket and working within 15 feet. At 2 am, I'm not about to work the math for the past 27 games but based on calculations from earlier points during this season, I've found that we are roughly twice as efficient inside the arc as we are from outside. 20 2-pointers beats 10 3-pointers every time.