6 games is our magic number

[RF2044]

I qualify this post by acknowledging that with our OOC record / lack of road wins, it is extremely unlikely that we make the NCAA tournament.

But evening up our record at 4-4 in conference, we still have an admittedly tiny shot. I think we need to win 6 more games. We get Pitt / Clemson on the road, but they both suck. Can't afford to stub our toe against either of them. We play GT twice. Can we find two more additional wins somewhere else?

And even if we somehow claw our way to six regular season wins, we'd still need to tack on another win or two in the ACCT.

Again, very unlikely that we'll be able to dig our way out of the massive hole we've created for ourselves, but if we somehow are able to gut out 6 [or even better, 7] more wins, things might get interesting...

Would be fun to watch Lunardi's head explode if we somehow snuck in.

 

[Brooky03]

I think we have to win the ACCT at this point.

 

[TheGov3304]

The win that we will have over FSU on Saturday will definitely help.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Again, very unlikely that we'll be able to dig our way out of the massive hole we've created for ourselves, but if we somehow are able to gut out 6 [or even better, 7] more wins, things might get interesting...

No doubt there is a lot that has to happen for us to finish with 10 wins in conference and then possibly one or two in the ACCT. Then does the NCAA have a conversation regarding last years run to the Final Four or do they totally disregard that. Some people were upset we were chosen last year. Does our performance last year help us?

 

[Cusefan0307]

I think we need 7 and one ACCT win. Don't think it'll happen, but we've turned things around before.

 

[orangenirvana]

I think the team needs 7-3 these final 10 regular season games. Then at least one, maybe two ACCT victories to finish 21-13.

 

[jordoo]

I will first qualify this by saying I don't see us making the tourney.

The problem is we have looked like a completely different team on the road than at home. Any road win in conference would be a big deal IMO. Then you look at the home schedule and we still have FSU, UVA, Lville, Duke and finally Tech. After the Tech home game our most winnable games left on the schedule are road games and again we have played very poorly on the road.

I'm figuring Saturday against FSU is a loss, I just don't see it. We would have to play so much better than we did in our other home games because FSU is on a completely different level than Miami, Pitt, BC and Wake. After that its on the road to NcSt then home to face UVA. I will only start to believe if we win 2 of the next 3.

 

[orangenirvana]

I think we have to win the ACCT at this point.

Really? Win 11 straight going into the ACCT (22-9, 14-4 in ACC) and they wouldn't be a lock?

 

[thenug211]

I qualify this post by acknowledging that with our OOC record / lack of road wins, it is extremely unlikely that we make the NCAA tournament.

But evening up our record at 4-4 in conference, we still have an admittedly tiny shot. I think we need to win 6 more games. We get Pitt / Clemson on the road, but they both suck. Can't afford to stub our toe against either of them. We play GT twice. Can we find two more additional wins somewhere else?

Can we tack on another win or two in the ACCT?

Again, very unlikely that we'll be able to dig our way out of the massive hole we've created for ourselves, but if we somehow are able to gut out 6 [or even better, 7] more wins, things might get interesting...

Would be fun to watch Lunardi's head explode if we somehow snuck in.

I think we need 7 to get on the bubble before the ACC Tournament

Next Four are FSU(H), NCST (A), Virginia (H), Clemson (A)-We have to take 3 of these games. One major upset at home and beat the two teams below us in the standings on the road. Unfortunately, we haven't beaten anyone on the road this year. Maybe we take both at home and win one on the road.

Following four are Pitt (A), L'Ville (H), GTECH (A), Duke (H)- We have to take three of these as well. Pitt is not playing well and we took it to them in the dome. Beat Tech on the road in a septic arena. Beat either the Cards or Duke sans K at home

Final Two-Beat Georgia Tech at Home and Lose to L'Ville on the road

11-7 in the ACC and 19-12 overall...now please have my head checked.

 

[jordoo]

Really? Win 11 straight going into the ACCT (22-9, 14-4 in ACC) and they wouldn't be a lock?

Yes that would make us a lock because it would include wins against FSU, UVA, Lville x2 and Duke, although that's not going to happen.

 

[jordoo]

I think we need 7 to get on the bubble before the ACC Tournament

Next Four are FSU(H), NCST (A), Virginia (H), Clemson (A)-We have to take 3 of these games. One major upset at home and beat the two teams below us in the standings on the road. Unfortunately, we haven't beaten anyone on the road this year. Maybe we take both at home and win one on the road.

Following four are Pitt (A), L'Ville (H), GTECH (A), Duke (H)- We have to take three of these as well. Pitt is not playing well and we took it to them in the dome. Beat Tech on the road in a septic arena. Beat either the Cards or Duke sans K at home

Final Two-Beat Georgia Tech at Home and Lose to L'Ville on the road

11-7 in the ACC and 19-12 overall...now please have my head checked.

Right and its very hard to see this happening. The way the schedule is laid out the rest of the way we have to beat teams we have no business beating to get any sort if momentum.

 

[sabach]

I think we have to win the ACCT at this point.

 

[orangenirvana]

I think we need 7 to get on the bubble before the ACC Tournament

Next Four are FSU(H), NCST (A), Virginia (H), Clemson (A)-We have to take 3 of these games. One major upset at home and beat the two teams below us in the standings on the road.

If SU plays as well Saturday as they played last night (a little better on offense) then we have a chance - one would think FSU is due for a clunker.

 

[orangenirvana]

Yes that would make us a lock because it would include wins against FSU, UVA, Lville x2 and Duke, although that's not going to happen.

Of course it's not going to happen.

But this thread isn't about what will happen. It's about what could happen.

 

[Alsacs]

We need to be 20-11 in the regular season and win atleast 1 ACCT game.

I just want a winning record.

 

[PhatOrange]

we just have to keep winning period, that's a given. But people who are saying no way are not looking at the rest of the landscape. they have to fill the brackets with someone.

 

[longtimefan]

On a little tangent--

If SU and Mich St end up with the same record at the end of the season, will they be be treated the same by the committee?

 

[SoBeCuse]

Optimistic take:

FSU is an absolute must. With the assumption of rational coaching we have a decent chance there with Hamilton being the coach over there. Going with a W. No chance in hell we are beating Louisville and Virginia with our backcourt. Virginia, Perrantes, Shayok, and co. are going to have a little extra something for us and it won't be pretty. Another blowout, possibly three there with UL on the resume.

Big talent gap IMO between SU and NC St in their favor but they are so up and down and it is a home game. They are talented but those Cat Barber/TJ Warren teams are much better. W.

Clemson we squeak one out. Hopefully the team learns from the tough UVA defense and it prepares them for Clemson's. First road win!

Pitt has folded it seems. We sweep them. W

Duke is down but it is still Duke. They have multiple shooters and Jefferson is healthy now. Roberson needs to match him. It took everything we had last year and Jefferson was out. Hopefully our perimeter D plays inspired on ball. A very cautious W.

GTech I think we split and win the H meeting. They are much improved under Pastner. He has underacheived big time but his infusion of energy to their program is probably just what they need compared to Gregory.

I have us 11-7 at best. I think a deep run into the ACC Tourney must happen to get in. Maybe to the title game. Whole resume will be scrutinized. There still was NOTHING done in the OOC part of the schedule. I have a feeling that our computer numbers are better than the actual product on the floor so I think that could benefit us. Our KenPom numbers aren't that bad right now. They sort of defy logic right now, IMO. But, committee members attend games around the country as well. The team often looks lifeless, like they don't know what the hell they are doing, and they have quit in certain games. Hopefully they haven't witnessed too many of those in person. I have a feeling both Pitt AND Miami will be NIT teams when it all plays out. There will be MANY blowout losses on our resume. That matters. There already is and I am pretty certain barring some miracle that the two to UL and one UVA will be really ugly. For these reasons I think we still would need to go on a pretty big run in the ACC Tourney. No idea how many but one or two ain't gonna cut it. Whole body of work needs to be considered. It can be done!

 

[Funk Doc]

On a positive note...we still have a bunch of opportunities to get some quality wins! On the downside...there's a reason our record is what it is! To paraphrase Herman Edwards...we are who we think we are!

 

[Jasoncuse]

We haven't beaten a Tourney team yet, so if we are to actually make a run, we have to start knocking off top teams.

Have to win some of the FSU, UVA, Duke, L'ville games...

 

[shandeezy7]

On a little tangent--

If SU and Mich St end up with the same record at the end of the season, will they be be treated the same by the committee?

Good question, although right now MSU has 2 bad losses, while we have 4.

 

[CorduroyG]

we need to win all our home games. we're a different team at home. thats our best chance. and steal a road game or 2.

 

[jncuse]

I am going to stick by 7 more wins (and no bad losses in the ACC tourney) as my best guess. Interestingly 10-8 is now getting us up to an RPI of about 75 which is getting much closer to the lowest number ever to get an at large-- it was projected in the mid 80's about 10 days ago. While individual RPI never means much, I still think there is a threshold maximum, even subconsciously. I don't think it has ever been above 75 for an at-large, and I doubt they would have let us in with an 80+ RPI. The entire premise as to why we would get in with a 60ish RPI is that we inherently have to get a fair number of top 50 wins.

I was responding to someone last night about Clemson being in (or nearly in) on Joe Lunardi's latest projection, and when I looked at the resumes of the last teams out on the bracket matrix as compared to some of the bubbling ACC teams, I was stunned by how bad they look right now.

I will try to find that thread.

 

[Marsh01]

I qualify this post by acknowledging that with our OOC record / lack of road wins, it is extremely unlikely that we make the NCAA tournament.

But evening up our record at 4-4 in conference, we still have an admittedly tiny shot. I think we need to win 6 more games. We get Pitt / Clemson on the road, but they both suck. Can't afford to stub our toe against either of them. We play GT twice. Can we find two more additional wins somewhere else?

And even if we somehow claw our way to six regular season wins, we'd still need to tack on another win or two in the ACCT.

Again, very unlikely that we'll be able to dig our way out of the massive hole we've created for ourselves, but if we somehow are able to gut out 6 [or even better, 7] more wins, things might get interesting...

Would be fun to watch Lunardi's head explode if we somehow snuck in.

if those 6 wins are Duke, FSU, Virginia, Louisville (twice..sigh) and Clemson we are golden.

 

[jncuse]

This was not considering Syracuse, but was something I posted last night in response to Clemson still being in so many brackets:

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

The top non ACC teams on the outside of the bubble right now according to the matrix

Wichita St: 16-4, 16-0 vs sub 100 teams, 0-4 vs top 100 teams

Rhode Island : 12-6, 1-6 vs top 100 teams (win vs Cincy)

Michigan : 13-7. 3-6 vs top 100 (2 nice neutral court wins over SMU and Marquette),

Georgia : 11-7, 4 top 100 wins (2 Road), no top 50 wins, 2 sub 100 losses on the road

As a comparison

Clemson - 11-8, 4 top 100 wins, 3 top 50 wins (2 away), 2 sub 100 losses on the road

Pitt - 12-8, 6 top 100 wins, 2 top 50 wins (1 road), Neutral Win against #52 RPI, 2 sub 100 losses.

It's slim pickings. But the ACC teams clearly accomplished the most OOC. which is why they are in right now despite the record. It is also why I think there are good chances one ACC team will get in with a 7-11 conference record this year. (As an aside that will be a team that accomplished something OOC unlike us)