7 point favorites tomorrow | Syracusefan.com

7 point favorites tomorrow

Depends who you quote.

"The Pick!
The Pitt Panthers have been a strong board value on the road with 9 payouts in their last 12 away tilts as 5 out of their last 8 away games have gone under the total. The Syracuse Orange have paid out on 5 out of their last 6 home games with 10 out of their last 13 home games going under the total. The Pitt Panthers have covered 15 out of their last 19 games against Syracuse with 3 out of the last 5 meetings in this head to head series going over the total. Pittsburgh has covered 8 out of their last 9 visits to Syracuse with 6 out of their last 9 games at Syracuse going under the total. We’ll call for the Pitt Panthers and under the total in this one! " - Betphoenix
 
Doug Gottlieb makes Pitt his upset special for the weekend on his cable show Lead Off. He thinks Pitt has Cuse's number and they have had success in the Dome so they go in with no fear. Didn't take DG long to jump off the bandwagon did it? His hottie side-kick, Allie, just shook her head and kinda rolled her eyes.
 
Down to 5.5 at most books. Should be around 3 in my opinion
 
690West said:
Down to 5.5 at most books. Should be around 3 in my opinion
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I said 4. Shocked it was 7
 
I need to find an online book that i can easily transfer money too(and who is reputable for payouts also). If anyone knows one, feel free to PM me if youd rather not post publicly. Thanks in advance, I've been wanting action for awhile now
 
CaptainJ said:
I need to find an online book that i can easily transfer money too(and who is reputable for payouts also). If anyone knows one, feel free to PM me if youd rather not post publicly. Thanks in advance, I've been wanting action for awhile now
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I echo that...
 
Madbiker said:
Doug Gottlieb makes Pitt his upset special for the weekend on his cable show Lead Off. He thinks Pitt has Cuse's number and they have had success in the Dome so they go in with no fear. Didn't take DG long to jump off the bandwagon did it? His hottie side-kick, Allie, just shook her head and kinda rolled her eyes.
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I dont think Doug was ever on the bandwagon. I think some of these people(the better ones) may have some idea of the perception they give off, and will take action to adjust it from time to time. I mean, I wouldnt doubt some of them get some side pay from vegas.
 
CaptainJ said:
I need to find an online book that i can easily transfer money too(and who is reputable for payouts also). If anyone knows one, feel free to PM me if youd rather not post publicly. Thanks in advance, I've been wanting action for awhile now
Expand...
top bet
 
Madbiker said:
Doug Gottlieb makes Pitt his upset special for the weekend on his cable show Lead Off. He thinks Pitt has Cuse's number and they have had success in the Dome so they go in with no fear. Didn't take DG long to jump off the bandwagon did it? His hottie side-kick, Allie, just shook her head and kinda rolled her eyes.
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allie-laforce-cbs-15.jpg
 
cusetown1 said:
I feel they set it high for a reason.
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Their only reason would be to attract action.

Tell me you understand.

They are uninterested in picking winners and losers. They want to balance betting on both sides. That's their "NO RISK" position.

They don't care who wins. This is not their guess on the relative strengths of the teams. They set and adjust the line to balance the action.
 
Townie72 said:
Their only reason would be to attract action.

Tell me you understand.

They are uninterested in picking winners and losers. They want to balance betting on both sides. That's their "NO RISK" position.

They don't care who wins. This is not their guess on the relative strengths of the teams. They set and adjust the line to balance the action.
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I totally understand. But they do have a few games they want the public to take the bait. Just a theory I have.
 
cusetown1 said:
I totally understand. But they do have a few games they want the public to take the bait. Just a theory I have.
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The only way your theory could be true is if they were also betting. They are not.
 
Townie72 said:
Their only reason would be to attract action.

Tell me you understand.

They are uninterested in picking winners and losers. They want to balance betting on both sides. That's their "NO RISK" position.

They don't care who wins. This is not their guess on the relative strengths of the teams. They set and adjust the line to balance the action.
Expand...

I disagree. While the general rule is to balance the books 50-50, when the oddsmakers feel they have a better than normal understanding of the game in question coupled with proven examples of human biases (e.g. teams like Notre Dame), they will skew the odds knowing that the action is betting with their hearts and not inclined to switch sides. So, rather that attracting action, they are simply weighting the odds more heavily against you.

Let's say the "true odds" say a team is a 7 point favorite. That is, completely objective bookmakers without a dog in the fight say its -7. For some teams, the books will never balance at -7. If Vegas can entice those people to pay a loyalty premium that is significant enough, they would likely accept the risk that the books are unbalanced.
 
Townie72 said:
Their only reason would be to attract action.

Tell me you understand.

They are uninterested in picking winners and losers. They want to balance betting on both sides. That's their "NO RISK" position.

They don't care who wins. This is not their guess on the relative strengths of the teams. They set and adjust the line to balance the action.
Expand...
Vegas cares a lot about who wins. Betting rarely comes out even and they don't like to move lines much. Vegas books took a huge bath on the nfl last season.
 
PoppyHart said:
I disagree. While the general rule is to balance the books 50-50, when the oddsmakers feel they have a better than normal understanding of the game in question coupled with proven examples of human biases (e.g. teams like Notre Dame), they will skew the odds knowing that the action is betting with their hearts and not inclined to switch sides. So, rather that attracting action, they are simply weighting the odds more heavily against you.

Let's say the "true odds" say a team is a 7 point favorite. That is, completely objective bookmakers without a dog in the fight say its -7. For some teams, the books will never balance at -7. If Vegas can entice those people to pay a loyalty premium that is significant enough, they would likely accept the risk that the books are unbalanced.
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They do it all the time. There's always heavier action on favorites and popular teams.
 
AZOrange said:
They do it all the time. There's always heavier action on favorites and popular teams.
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Right, so in my example above, they set the line at -10 knowing the ratio of bets won't really budge and they trust that their info is better than that of the common folk.

I'd be surprised if every major casino didn't employ someone with an advanced degree in behavioral economics.
 
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