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Message: [QUOTE="Townie72, post: 893864, member: 780"] You appear to be making the same mistake. It's never about what the oddsmakers think will happen. It's always about what they think the betting public thinks ... and then they adjust the line as the bets come in to get the action equal on both sides of the bet. The oddsmakers don't have an opinion on the relative strengths and weaknesses of teams and the likely margin of victory. Its all about what they think bettors think the winner and the winner's margin of victory will be. Because they understand the behavior of Bettors and Bettor psychology, they factor that into the line they set. If ND has a pool of Bettors who "overvalue" ND than the books will incorporate that into their thinking. [/QUOTE]