9 for 2

[jncuse]

For now ... Rhode Island must win tomorrow over Davidson.

Using the baseline assumption that if you are over 95% on the matrix you are clear (which has always been the case) this is where the bubble stands based on matrix rankings.

St. Mary's - 66% *
Arizona St - 42%
-------------------------
Louisville - 39%
Syracuse - 22%
Oklahoma St - 17%
Middle Tennessee St 14%
Baylor 12%
Marquette 10%
Notre Dame 4%

** - Don't get too overwhelmed by the 66%. Mid majors around that % or higher have often been screwed, while I don't remember a P5 team valued by the matrix not get in. For example --
St. Bonaventure 85% in 2016.
St. Mary's 65% in 2016
San Diego St 56% in 2016
Colorado St 91% in 2015
Temple 89% in 2015

Point is -- when they have many P5 Schools to choose from its mid-major that tends to get locked out.

 

[orangenirvana]

For now ... Rhode Island must win tomorrow over Davidson.

Using the baseline assumption that if you are over 95% on the matrix you are clear (which has always been the case) this is where the bubble stands) based on matrix rankings.

(%'s are per representations in the matrix, not any probability by me)


St. Mary's - 66% *
Arizona St - 42%
-------------------------
Louisville - 39%
Syracuse - 22%
Oklahoma St - 17%
Middle Tennessee St 14%
Baylor 12%
Marquette 10%
Notre Dame 4%

** - Don't get too overwhelmed by the 66%. Mid majors around that % or higher have often been screwed, while I don't remember a P5 team valued by the matrix not get in. For example --
St. Bonaventure 85% in 2016.
St. Mary's 65% in 2016
San Diego St 56% in 2016
Colorado St 91% in 2015
Temple 89% in 2015

Point is -- when they have many P5 Schools to choose from its mid-major that tends to get locked out.

What was Saint Bonaventure's percentage in the matrix going into today?

 

[blue&orange]

For now ... Rhode Island must win tomorrow over Davidson.

Using the baseline assumption that if you are over 95% on the matrix you are clear (which has always been the case) this is where the bubble stands) based on matrix rankings.

(%'s are per representations in the matrix, not any probability by me)


St. Mary's - 66% *
Arizona St - 42%
-------------------------
Louisville - 39%
Syracuse - 22%
Oklahoma St - 17%
Middle Tennessee St 14%
Baylor 12%
Marquette 10%
Notre Dame 4%

** - Don't get too overwhelmed by the 66%. Mid majors around that % or higher have often been screwed, while I don't remember a P5 team valued by the matrix not get in. For example --
St. Bonaventure 85% in 2016.
St. Mary's 65% in 2016
San Diego St 56% in 2016
Colorado St 91% in 2015
Temple 89% in 2015

Point is -- when they have many P5 Schools to choose from its mid-major that tends to get locked out.

This is spot on. I think Az St. and Louisville are 50-50 and one will make it while the other will not. St. Mary’s is interesting. People that have us in, generally have them out. If we see their name on the selection show it might be over at that point. If Rhody chokes tomorrow we are toast. Go Rams!

 

[jncuse]

What was Saint Bonaventure's percentage in the matrix going into today?

99% of the people had them in, but about 18% of them had them as an 11 seed. So it's possible they can have slippage of 10% or a little more after today. So perhaps they need to be included in the above.

 

[Chris02M]

This is spot on. I think Az St. and Louisville are 50-50 and one will make it while the other will not. St. Mary’s is interesting. People that have us in, generally have them out. If we see their name on the selection show it might be over at that point. If Rhody chokes tomorrow we are toast. Go Rams!

if louisville gets in we better be in too

 

[pearl31]

if louisville gets in we better be in too

Yep.
I will not be upset at all if we are left out... unless louisville gets in

 

[jncuse]

The only one I would not accept is Notre Dame.

 

[MSOrange]

Yep.
I will not be upset at all if we are left out... unless louisville gets in

St Mary's would kind of annoy me also.

 

[Chris02M]

i will be taking another scrub of the entire field this evening though im pretty sure it will come down to last 2 spots(1 if davidson wins tommorrow. if you go to realtime rpi and look at our current rpi i think we get in

 

[Brooky03]

Why are we forced to talk about crappy St. Mary's every year?

 

[Chris02M]

Why are we forced to talk about crappy St. Mary's every year?

because they cant beat gonzaga when it counts

 

[Alsacs]

For now ... Rhode Island must win tomorrow over Davidson.

Using the baseline assumption that if you are over 95% on the matrix you are clear (which has always been the case) this is where the bubble stands based on matrix rankings.

St. Mary's - 66% *
Arizona St - 42%
-------------------------
Louisville - 39%
Syracuse - 22%
Oklahoma St - 17%
Middle Tennessee St 14%
Baylor 12%
Marquette 10%
Notre Dame 4%

** - Don't get too overwhelmed by the 66%. Mid majors around that % or higher have often been screwed, while I don't remember a P5 team valued by the matrix not get in. For example --
St. Bonaventure 85% in 2016.
St. Mary's 65% in 2016
San Diego St 56% in 2016
Colorado St 91% in 2015
Temple 89% in 2015

Point is -- when they have many P5 Schools to choose from its mid-major that tends to get locked out.

How is USC seen as a lock?
They only played the Arizona schools once. They lost both.
They got swept by UCLA.

They dominated Oregon 3 times and swept Utah.
Wow.
They split with Stanford.

Their nonconference is Middle Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

Their resume is weak when I study it.

The PAC-12 sucks as a conference.

I feel like if they lose to Arizona tonight they are out.

Are you not even putting them with these other 9?

 

[Sherman20]

For now ... Rhode Island must win tomorrow over Davidson.

Using the baseline assumption that if you are over 95% on the matrix you are clear (which has always been the case) this is where the bubble stands based on matrix rankings.

St. Mary's - 66% *
Arizona St - 42%
-------------------------
Louisville - 39%
Syracuse - 22%
Oklahoma St - 17%
Middle Tennessee St 14%
Baylor 12%
Marquette 10%
Notre Dame 4%

** - Don't get too overwhelmed by the 66%. Mid majors around that % or higher have often been screwed, while I don't remember a P5 team valued by the matrix not get in. For example --
St. Bonaventure 85% in 2016.
St. Mary's 65% in 2016
San Diego St 56% in 2016
Colorado St 91% in 2015
Temple 89% in 2015

Point is -- when they have many P5 Schools to choose from its mid-major that tends to get locked out.

The committee has to take into account ASU’s complete collapse over the past 2-3 months. The Kansas and Xavier wins were over THREE months ago—late November and early December. Teams have figured them out. They have no inside play. In the three months since then, they’ve beaten exactly two other possible tourney teams—USC and UCLA. Both of those games came at home, and both of those teams are squarely on the bubble. Sorry, but ASU has to be out. Oklahoma is a bit different. They were at least losing to good teams during their slide. But they could be out too.

It’s absurd if Louisville gets in. And St Mary’s resume is thoroughly pedestrian. No way. I’m more impressed with OK State’s resurgence, though their RPI and NCSOS numbers are atrocious. USC doesn’t have many impressive wins either.

I think it could be Syracuse, Marquette and Okie State contending for those last 2 spots.

 

[cuseinseattle]

How is USC seen as a lock?
They only played the Arizona schools once. They lost both.
They got swept by UCLA.

They dominated Oregon 3 times and swept Utah.
Wow.
They split with Stanford.

Their nonconference is Middle Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

Their resume is weak when I study it.

The PAC-12 sucks as a conference.

I feel like if they lose to Arizona tonight they are out.

Are you not even putting them with these other 9?

They also lost to Mike Hopkins at home. Sobecuse probably has some thoughts on this

 

[jncuse]

How is USC seen as a lock?
They only played the Arizona schools once. They lost both.
They got swept by UCLA.

They dominated Oregon 3 times and swept Utah.
Wow.
They split with Stanford.

Their nonconference is Middle Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

Their resume is weak when I study it.

The PAC-12 sucks as a conference.

I feel like if they lose to Arizona tonight they are out.

Are you not even putting them with these other 9?

As stated at top of my post "Using the baseline assumption that if you are over 95% on the matrix you are clear (which has always been the case) this is where the bubble stands based on matrix rankings."

You can certainly disagree with the assumption, but that is why they are not on my list. This is also done to show that we still have hope.

But I certainly don't disagree with anything you say. If you want to make it 10/3 or 11/4 and show we even more hope, that I am glad to accept that.

 

[dan7800]

We're not getting in.

 

[rocfan44]

We're not getting in.

Who invited Mr. Positivity to the party?

 

[jncuse]

We're not getting in.

Based on the odds we probably will not, but it's far from conclusive.

 

[Briancuse]

Based on the odds we probably will not, but it's far from conclusive.

What's your gut feeling right now

 

[Alsacs]

As stated at top of my post "Using the baseline assumption that if you are over 95% on the matrix you are clear (which has always been the case) this is where the bubble stands based on matrix rankings."

You can certainly disagree with the assumption, but that is why they are not on my list. This is also done to show that we still have hope.

If you want to make it 10/3 or 11/4 and show we even more hope, that I am glad to accept that.

I trust you man.
You use logic in everything you say pretty much.
I just don’t get the uniminity that USC gets.
I just think their resume is ridliciously thin. To be seen as a lock.

They finished 2nd in the PAC-12 because they played a weaker conference schedule.
They didn’t beat any of the other PAC-12 teams in the field or bubble.
Arizona, UCLA, Arizona State the Trojans have gone 0-4 against them.

Their nonconference isn’t loaded either. I don’t get it.

I mean Syracuse’s schedule is MILES better.
We might have lost 7 games to Kansas, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke.

That is 7 of our 13 losses.
To teams that are 1/2 seeds.

I don’t get it. The more I research the more I see we should be in easy.
Even though our team isn’t that good.

 

[Dinkyspond]

I know the committee takes into account who's back and healthy (Colson i.e.) but do they take into account who's nursing injuries? They could say Syracuse doesn't get in because they have only 4 healthy players. Chewie, Sidibe have knee problems and Moyer is probably still having problems with the high ankle sprain. Is bad health taken into consideration?

 

[rocfan44]

The committee always said that out of conference scheduling was important. What does Syracuse do? They up their non conference SOS to 13 and go 11-2. They are one missed layup away from being 12-1 with again the 13th best NC SOS in the country. The committee also says win on the road/neutral courts. What does Syracuse do? They go out and go 6-8. I think if you are looking at the total body of work, they fit the bill and deserve the bid.

 

[Chris02M]

after a complete scrub of my 36 at large choices, i have us safely in at #44 on my seed list(1 ahead of the last at large pending davidson result tomorrow)


seed list:
1- Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier or North Carolina
2- North Carolina or Xavier, Duke, Purdue, Cincinnati
3- Michigan, Tennessee, Auburn, Wichita St
4- Michigan St, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Arizona
5- Gonzaga, Clemson, Kentucky, Houston
6- Ohio State, Florida, Miami, Arkansas
7- Texas A+M, Tcu, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall
8- Missouri, Nevada, NC State, Providence
9-Rhode Island, Butler, Florida State,Kansas State
10-Saint Bonaventure, Creighton, Ucla, Texas
11-Alabama, Oklahoma,St Marys, Syracuse, Usc, *

first 4 out: Arizona State, Oklahoma State Middle Tennessee, Louisville
next 4 out: Notre Dame, Marquette, Baylor, Davidson


i always wait until all auto bids from lower conferences are done to rank those teams so those are on the list for tommorrow

 

[pearl31]

after a complete scrub of my 36 at large choices, i have us safely in at #44 on my seed list(1 ahead of the last at large pending davidson result tomorrow)


seed list:
1- Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier or North Carolina
2- North Carolina or Xavier, Duke, Purdue, Cincinnati
3- Michigan, Tennessee, Auburn, Wichita St
4- Michigan St, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Arizona
5- Gonzaga, Clemson, Kentucky, Houston
6- Ohio State, Florida, Miami, Arkansas
7- Texas A+M, Tcu, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall
8- Missouri, Nevada, NC State, Providence
9-Rhode Island, Butler, Florida State,Kansas State
10-Saint Bonaventure, Creighton, Ucla, Texas
11-Alabama, Oklahoma, Usc, Syracuse, Oklahoma St*

first 4 out: Arizona State*, Middle Tennessee, Louisville, St Mary's
next 4 out: Notre Dame, Marquette, Baylor, Davidson


i always wait until all auto bids from lower conferences are done to rank those teams so those are on the list for tommorrow

i am going to sleep on asu vs osu for last spot as its really close in my current evaluation

You better be ready to run for the hills tomorrow night if we're left out - folks on here be comin' with torches and pitchforks!

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Between ND/Lville/Cuse, I think ND is the only one that gets in. Committee will give them a pass because of Colsen.