A couple of observations now that we're past the quarter pole [long]

[RF2044]

I wasn't at the Alcorn game which seems to have been the lightening rod, but I was there yesterday. I had no problems with the effort. I thought it was outstanding save a couple of isolated instances which occur every game on every team.

Lemoyne says hello.

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Forget about Alcorn State [which I partially chalk up to not playing for a week and going through the motions somewhat after a frustrating loss]--did you have a problem with the effort during the Temple game, when we were getting killed on the glass and beaten to every loose ball? I sure did.

 

[Knicks411]

You've qualified it sufficiently, but it is important to keep in mind that last year's numbers were compiled against a full season's worth of competition, which included the #16 SOS, a very tough conference slate, and a run to the elite 8.

This year's numbers might be comparable thus far, but have been amassed against largely inferior opposition. If these numbers hold up over the course of the season, we'll be in good shape. But I don't think it is an accurate interpretation to look at this year's limited subset of data and formulate conclusions about how effective we are defensively / forcing TOs / rebounding compared to last year.

Yup, definitely. The overall number is adjusted, so I feel more comfortable comparing those, but the raw numbers you need to take with a grain of salt to be sure.

Unfortunately Pomeroy doesn't have the non conference numbers broken out, but he does have the conference numbers as a subset of the overall numbers. For the rebounding, for whatever its worth, the offensive rebounding was very similar in conference play (allowed opponents to get 39.9% of their misses) and overall (allowed opponents to get 39.2% of misses. But do keep in mind that would include the BET as well as the NCAA tournament, so it's not a straight apples to apples comparison).

I think that the defensive rebounding to this point has been so much better than last year, even accounting for the competition, that it's fair to say that I think we will be a fairly significantly better defensive rebounding team this year than last year. Our TO rate is slightly better this year than last; it seems reasonable to conclude that we won't force as many TO in conference play as we have so far in non-conference play, but I bet the TO numbers are pretty comparable to last year.

Basically, to make a long story short, I think we will have a better defense this year than last year. We may not finish second in the country in defensive efficiency, but I think somewhere in the top 10 or perhaps the top 5 even is reasonable. I do expect the offense to be worse than last year though.

 

[RF2044]

Basically, to make a long story short, I think we will have a better defense this year than last year. We may not finish second in the country in defensive efficiency, but I think somewhere in the top 10 or perhaps the top 5 even is reasonable.

Wow--I'll take that bet. Fab was a dominant defender who also drew a ton of chargers. He clearly had developmental deficiencies in other aspects of his game, but he was a such a factor defensively for us last year--his absence can't be overstated. And unlike you, I'm not convinced that this year's steals / turnover numbers will remain on par with last year's pace once they face tougher competition. Hope they do, though!

 

[Gabjon]

This is where I jump in and point out that the defense has better efficiency numbers than we've ever had before. Of course it's early, and the competition hasn't been great (though the numbers are adjusted). The last 3 years we ranked 17th, 16th, and 18th in defensive efficiency. We're 2nd right now. (of course this is also where I point out this is the worst offense we've had since 2008)

Not to sound like glass empty guy but I think our defensive numbers are inflated based on a weak schedule and an outdoor game in the wind, but for our offensive numbers to be so low at this stage of the season is not good at all. Basically our defense doesn't pass the eye test right now so our offense better be good this year. This is another reason why I think the guys who haven't been scoring well (efficiently) won't be getting much PT from this point on.

I can't wait to see how we play tomorrow and how we are played tomorrow. (scheme wise) Of course the Knicks game tonight with Amare's season premiere is will have to hold me until then

 

[Knicks411]

Actually, the San Diego State point is a good one that I didn't really think about too much. Not that they are a great offensive team (61st in the country this year) but our numbers are probably inflated a little bit by playing them in a situation where it was going to be hard for anyone to score.

The TO numbers will probably fall off a little, but I bet not a ton. (For instance right now we have a TO% of 25.6% on the defensive end. Going through the box scores real quick, in the pre conference last year we were around 27%, which came down to 23.5% in conf play. ) But I think the biggest difference will be on the rebounding end. Fab was a great shot blocker and changed a ton of shots but I also don't think it is a coincidence that we were a really bad defensive rebounding team (even for us) last year with him in the middle. He went for lots of blocks and when he didn't get them, he was out of position on the glass. I'm not complaining about the overall effect, but this year we've actually blocked a higher % of shots this year than last (though some of that is the schedule); I wouldn't be surprised if the block rate falls below last season, (but I'm actually more confident we can maintain that than the TO; Rak is a really godo shot blocker and I think he gets more time than he has so far) but I also think we're going to do a much better job on the defensive glass this year than last.

Basically, long story short is the thing that has held our defense back from being super elite in the past few years has been the defensive glass. I've seen enough to where I think we will be significantly better there than last year, and I think that will more than cover up any potential slippage in forcing TO.

I am much more worried about the other end of the floor.

 

[Gabjon]

I'm not worried about rebounding or shot blocking at all but my reason is different. I think James will out perform Kris in both areas and it will be a net gain overall. My concern is interior defense we seem to be giving up more points inside verse the teams that have a inside scorer than we have in years.

Offensively I think people will learn what Scoop meant to this team the hard way! MCW almost had a triple double yesterday but he did have 6TOs against a below average team.

 

[ORRange]

This is where I jump in and point out that the defense has better efficiency numbers than we've ever had before. Of course it's early, and the competition hasn't been great (though the numbers are adjusted). The last 3 years we ranked 17th, 16th, and 18th in defensive efficiency. We're 2nd right now. (of course this is also where I point out this is the worst offense we've had since 2008)

Nice post. Many on here are worried about the defense, because they don't pass the eye test. Maybe they need glasses. lol. I've said and thought our defense has been very good all year and our rebounding is outstanding. We usually block so many more shots in previous years that maybe it seems like we aren't playing such good defense. Keep the stats handy because some don't believe what they can't see with or without glasses.

 

[SoBristol]

Nice post. Many on here are worried about the defense, because they don't pass the eye test. Maybe they need glasses. lol. I've said and thought our defense has been very good all year and our rebounding is outstanding. We usually block so many more shots in previous years that maybe it seems like we aren't playing such good defense. Keep the stats handy because some don't believe what they can't see with or without glasses.

Makes me wonder if you saw the second half vs Detroit (gave up 47 points), or the games against Arkansas (gave up 82 points) and Temple (gave up 83 points).

Then, look at the stats from the 2011-12 season. How many times did SU give up more than 75 points in a game? Not once in the regular season. Only in the final game against Ohio State. Keep those stats handy.

 

[Knicks411]

Makes me wonder if you saw the second half vs Detroit (gave up 47 points), or the games against Arkansas (gave up 82 points) and Temple (gave up 83 points).

Then, look at the stats from the 2011-12 season. How many times did SU give up more than 75 points in a game? Not once in the regular season. Only in the final game against Ohio State. Keep those stats handy.

Well just because we've played really good defense over the course of the season doesn't mean there haven't been bad defensive games.

Though the Arkansas game wasn't one of them. 82 points in 86 possessions. We're playing at a faster pace this year.

 

[ORRange]

Makes me wonder if you saw the second half vs Detroit (gave up 47 points), or the games against Arkansas (gave up 82 points) and Temple (gave up 83 points).

Then, look at the stats from the 2011-12 season. How many times did SU give up more than 75 points in a game? Not once in the regular season. Only in the final game against Ohio State. Keep those stats handy.

I guess you didn't see our defensive stats. Defense and the play of CJ seem to be concerns on this board. Those two are the least of my concerns. BTW, we are pressing more this year to start our bad offense, thus giving our opponent more easy opportunities. If and when we start playing better offense then the pressing will lessen and our defense will be even better. I guess you didn't realize a team is apt to give up more points where they full court press. Our offense should be the focus of your concern. The defensive numbers are very good especially considering we have to press so much to jumpstart our offense.

 

[billsin01]

• I'm greatly concerned about our half court execution. We have a PG who predominates the ball and has a tendency to over dribble. If he isn't getting into the lane and getting passes that set up easy scoring opportunities, the entire offense seems to bog down and degenerate into one-on-one play. I think scoring points is going to be more difficult this year than expected.

• I'm really concerned about how I see this team have a tendency to sulk when things aren't going well. I don't want to overstate this, but during the Alcorn State game there were several times when we'd turn the ball over or get blocked, and guys would half assed jog back up the court. We also seem to have lapses where we play half hearted defense. When we play aggressive, active in the zone, we are SO MUCH BETTER, and it generally translates into positive offensive play on the other end.

• Southerland has really come down to earth after a phenomenal start. I'm pleased that he is finding other ways to contribute when the three is taken away--rebounding, scoring in the paint, etc. I'd like to see him doing a better job moving without the ball, because we need to find ways to get him more looks.

• MCW is a special talent, but I think we need to dial back some of the hyperbole about him being elite. I know--funny to say on a day where he came within an eyelash of a triple double. But the specific areas I'd like to see him improve are: (1) eliminating the unforced turnovers--too many every game for my tastes, (2) doing a better job executing half court offensive sets, especially when the defense clamps down and points aren't easy to come by, and (3) finding ways to continue to be a disruptive defensive catalyst like he was earlier in the season.

• Triche has the tools to be a very good offensive player for us. He has done a great job on the offensive boards [a trend we started seeing toward the end of last year], but he needs to do a better job shooting the ball. We need this guy to be a 37%+ three point shooter, and thus far he has underdelivered.

• Coleman is struggling, especially on offense. I was hoping he'd be more ready to give us that consistent low post threat that the team desperately needs, but I'm not sure that it is fully going to manifest this year. In fact, I think that both Coleman and Rak are going to give us very solid interior production NEXT year. Hope it isn't a year too late.

• Speaking of Keita, he's really improved from a confidence standpoint. He's now finishing pretty much everything he's supposed to inside, and he seems like our best interior defender. Will be interesting to see how much he plays in the middle now that we're entering conference play.

Nice post. A few thoughts on your thoughts:

-- Nice to see someone else writes long-winded rambling posts. I don't feel so alone.

-- I honestly think we have to stop holding our breath on Triche. I like him, but he's a complimentary player and the fact that he's OK at a lot of different things is good, but the fact that, at least offensively, he's not *good* at anything hurts us. If -- and it's a big if -- Cooney's shot starts falling I wouldn't be surprised to see him get meaningful minutes in BE play.

-- Your observations on MCW are excellent. I'd still say he's pretty elite but I think he's still figuring out how to run a team. The best was the point about being disruptive defensively. When he actually cares about playing defense he's a game-changer. He spends, unfortunately, far too much time standing up straight and not really moving. This team, as a team, needs far more focus defensively.

-- Not worried about Southerland b/c he's done enough to be a threat. Teams have to account for him. That said, I'd love to see him moving without the ball a bit more and used a bit more in the high post.

-- Coleman and Xmas have been underwhelming but we have to make a concerted effort to get the two of them some touches. Just have to.

-- Love Keita. Just think an athletic big man who can finish but doesn't need many touches and always hustles is a really, really, really valuable thing.

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

Good post RF.

I think we are going to be in a number of close games against good foes. The fact that we can't shoot free throws and have a hard time corralling defensive rebounds late really concerns me. Southerland/Keita/Fair backline is going to get abused on the glass by many teams.

 

[SoBristol]

Well just because we've played really good defense over the course of the season doesn't mean there haven't been bad defensive games.

Though the Arkansas game wasn't one of them. 82 points in 86 possessions. We're playing at a faster pace this year.

OK -- the issue is that we got hurt inside by the only legit teams we have played (not including San Diego State in this list, because the playing conditions were so atypical). Playing undersized cupcakes isn't a fair measure of how we defend.

Yes, we play at a faster pace -- and Arkansas was an example, as is the fact that Arkansas did a lot of damage inside. Similar for Detroit (in the second half) and Temple. Part of the reason we press is that we don't get enough stops in the half court, so we gamble for turn-overs.

 

[im4cuse]

A lot of good points RF. the only slight disagreement would be the choice if the word "sulk". I don't know if they'll sulk as much as just not knowing how to fix the half court issues.


I just think we need to press everyone this year.

how about they are easily "frustrated" when things aren't going well. They need to get over this in a hurry. I expect close game tonight; hopefully the right guys are at the line in last minutes.

 

[moqui]

On the one hand, I always thought that this was a team that was going to be much better by late February than a typical JB team, which begins the season well prepared and never really gets better. I have always thought that, by late in the season, SU would have the best frontcourt in the nation. I am a bit disappointed at the slow progress made by DC and, to a lesser degree, RC, but I still thank that will be the case.

But, on the other hand, I have to admit that I am concerned about the slow pace of DC's progression. He is the key player to a deep run, IMO. The half court offense that RF mentioned (and was a big issue last year) will find an easy cure if there is a go-to guy on the blocks.

The interesting thing about this year's squad is that while 4 of the 5 best players on the team (at the moment) are upperclassmen (SRs Triche & Southerland, JRs Fair & Keita), the four most talented players on the team are underclassmen (Sophs MCW & RC and Frosh DC and JG). I think all four of those - plus Cooney - will be better later than they are now. In some cases, just a little better (MCW) and in some cases (DC and maybe Cooney) a lot better.

One other thing I want to note - Southerland has to get a lot more aggressive on offense. I'm not saying he has to take contested threes when teams are game planning on taking that shot away, but he is so good with his long and mid range jumper that a simple shot fake and a dribble or two will get him an open look, or draw a help defender and he can find an open teammate. Bottom line is he can't wait for the shots to come to him, he has to find them. He cannot drift around and shoot 6 or 7 times a game. Look at Triche - Brandon has taken at least 10 shots in 11 of 13 games. Southerland has taken 10 or more shots only 6 times. Dirty needs to find a little bit of that aggression, because we need him to score while the interior game continues to develop.

 

[billsin01]

On the one hand, I always thought that this was a team that was going to be much better by late February than a typical JB team, which begins the season well prepared and never really gets better. I have always thought that, by late in the season, SU would have the best frontcourt in the nation. I am a bit disappointed at the slow progress made by DC and, to a lesser degree, RC, but I still thank that will be the case.

One other thing I want to note - Southerland has to get a lot more aggressive on offense. I'm not saying he has to take contested threes when teams are game planning on taking that shot away, but he is so good with his long and mid range jumper that a simple shot fake and a dribble or two will get him an open look, or draw a help defender and he can find an open teammate. Bottom line is he can't wait for the shots to come to him, he has to find them. He cannot drift around and shoot 6 or 7 times a game. Look at Triche - Brandon has taken at least 10 shots in 11 of 13 games. Southerland has taken 10 or more shots only 6 times. Dirty needs to find a little bit of that aggression, because we need him to score while the interior game continues to develop.

I enjoyed this post but you really think this will be the best frontcourt in the country by the end of the year? I like Rak but he's a ways away offensively and a nice but I wouldn't say dominant player defensively/on the glass. DC got 9 minutes -- nine -- in an absolute blowout vs. RU. he'll get more and he has talent but I can't help but think he's a loooooooonnnnngggg ways away.

Good point on Southerland.