A look ahead

[Consigliere]

Looking ahead to 2014 - 2015 it's pretty clear that we're in for a bit of a watershed year. Between lack of opportunity for the freshmen, early departures and graduations we have a very inexperienced core that lacks obvious objective and subjective leadership. I took a look at the returning points and minutes played expecting to see the numbers bear this out but was a bit surprised to see how historically unproductive the returning core has been. In fact, in terms of returning points per game the seven scholarship players who will take the court next season will be the least productive in JB's career and it's not even close.

Ten lowest:

10. 1995 - 1996 - 38.3 ppg
9. 2007 - 2008 - 37.4
8. 1983 - 1984 - 35.1
7. 2005 - 2006 - 35.1
6. 2013 - 2014 - 33.4
5. 2000 - 2001 - 33.1
4. 2009 - 2010 - 32.8
3. 2012 - 2013 - 31.5
2. 2002 - 2003 - 29.7
1. 2014 - 2015 - 25.4


Returning minutes per game are very similar with next year's squad returning 83.3 mpg, second lowest in the JB era to 2000 - 2001's 82.1 although I couldn't find minutes played prior to 1983. These are the only two teams to return less than 90 minutes a game.


The good news is that this effort was a complete waste of time since there is no real correlation between returning experience and wins. In fact some of our most successful seasons are included in the 10 listed above including the national championship squad and three of JB's four Final Four teams. Looking at those teams specifically a combination of emerging returning talent (MCW, Z, Todd Burgan, Hakeem) and strong freshman play (Melo and GMac) defined the seasons. That's what makes me so excited about next year - the unknown factor. Can K-Jo2 and Chris Mac be impact freshman? Will T-Rob2 or Silent G take advantage of the opportunity and become a breakout star and leader? What can we expect from BJ and Buss as playing time will be wide open on the wings? Can Rak and TC develop a more consistent presence to form a solid inside - outside combination? And what can we expect from a new, transformed DC3?

Stay tuned. Answers will start to be unveiled in 7 months.

 

[SWFLCUSE]

Looking ahead to 2014 - 2015 it's pretty clear that we're in for a bit of a watershed year. Between lack of opportunity for the freshmen, early departures and graduations we have a very inexperienced core that lacks obvious objective and subjective leadership. I took a look at the returning points and minutes played expecting to see the numbers bear this out but was a bit surprised to see how historically unproductive the returning core has been. In fact, in terms of returning points per game the seven scholarship players who will take the court next season will be the least productive in JB's career and it's not even close.

Ten lowest:

10. 1995 - 1996 - 38.3 ppg
9. 2007 - 2008 - 37.4
8. 1983 - 1984 - 35.1
7. 2005 - 2006 - 35.1
6. 2013 - 2014 - 33.4
5. 2000 - 2001 - 33.1
4. 2009 - 2010 - 32.8
3. 2012 - 2013 - 31.5
2. 2002 - 2003 - 29.7
1. 2014 - 2015 - 25.4


Returning minutes per game are very similar with next year's squad returning 83.3 mpg, second lowest in the JB era to 2000 - 2001's 82.1 although I couldn't find minutes played prior to 1983. These are the only two teams to return less than 90 minutes a game.


The good news is that this effort was a complete waste of time since there is no real correlation between returning experience and wins. In fact some of our most successful seasons are included in the 10 listed above including the national championship squad and three of JB's four Final Four teams. Looking at those teams specifically a combination of emerging returning talent (MCW, Z, Todd Burgan, Hakeem) and strong freshman play (Melo and GMac) defined the seasons. That's what makes me so excited about next year - the unknown factor. Can K-Jo2 and Chris Mac be impact freshman? Will T-Rob2 or Silent G take advantage of the opportunity and become a breakout star and leader? What can we expect from BJ and Buss as playing time will be wide open on the wings? Can Rak and TC develop a more consistent presence to form a solid inside - outside combination? And what can we expect from a new, transformed DC3?

Stay tuned. Answers will start to be unveiled in 7 months.

Awesome stuff, I for one think next year is going to be a lot of fun with all the question marks around the team. We will get two see players try and make their name and prove they belong.

 

[Halfmooncuse]

Next year will be a try out year. So many unproven players the best one can hope for is that JB gives all a chance to play so that he can determine the best for the 2016 team. Don't think there will be any undergrad players going pro and Coleman should take a red shirt. Unfotunately this will be one of the weakest JB teams in a whole while. Definitely a rebuilding year. No orange glasses on for this perspective.

 

[Ryand877]

Next year will be a try out year. So many unproven players the best one can hope for is that JB gives all a chance to play so that he can determine the best for the 2016 team. Don't think there will be any undergrad players going pro and Coleman should take a red shirt. Unfotunately this will be one of the weakest JB teams in a whole while. Definitely a rebuilding year. No orange glasses on for this perspective.

I'm certainly not saying we will be a dominant team and am very objective, but why is everybody already writing off next season? Players get better over the off season. I'm not even saying we will even be a ranked team (although we could be), but lets watch some games before giving up on the season before it starts.

 

[Dave85]

...real correlation between returning experience and wins...

Just like all good objectivity is subjectively determined: Correlation does not always prove causation.

 

[Dave85]

I'm certainly not saying we will be a dominant team and am very objective, but why is everybody already writing off next season?

Subjectively I think the Orange are going to win a national championship next season. Objectively, we lost a 5-star very experienced guard, a senior forward who was sensational, a senior center commanding the zone on defense, and a tremendously talented and athletic dunking machine. And with all that we ended up ranked 17th. Which is not bad but after the 26-0 start I was lured into expecting more from this team.

Next year's team has Rak as a senior center, check. K-JO as a reasonably good PG, check. Roberson might be able to fill Grant's shoes, check. McCull would have to somewhere between Grant and Fair in productivity, maybe check. Cooney has to figure how to score during conference play, okay check maybe. Paterson has to convince JB he's worthy of playing time, check maybe. BJ has to gain 20 pounds of muscle and contribute in some way on the court, okay check maybe. Obokoh has to play as well as Keita, check maybe. That's a lot maybe's that need to be tested and proven. It's hard not to be a little pessimistic with so much to prove.

 

[Ryand877]

Subjectively I think the Orange are going to win a national championship next season. Objectively, we lost a 5-star very experienced guard, a senior forward who was sensational, a senior center commanding the zone on defense, and a tremendously talented and athletic dunking machine. And with all that we ended up ranked 17th. Which is not bad but after the 26-0 start I was lured into expecting more from this team.

Next year's team has Rak as a senior center, check. K-JO as a reasonably good PG, check. Roberson might be able to fill Grant's shoes, check. McCull would have to somewhere between Grant and Fair in productivity, maybe check. Cooney has to figure how to score during conference play, okay check maybe. Paterson has to convince JB he's worthy of playing time, check maybe. BJ has to gain 20 pounds of muscle and contribute in some way on the court, okay check maybe. Obokoh has to play as well as Keita, check maybe. That's a lot maybe's that need to be tested and proven. It's hard not to be a little pessimistic with so much to prove.

I am too, believe me, and agree with your maybe's. But they are not definite. Thats all I'm saying.

 

[OttoMets]

Subjectively I think the Orange are going to win a national championship next season. Objectively, we lost a 5-star very experienced guard, a senior forward who was sensational, a senior center commanding the zone on defense, and a tremendously talented and athletic dunking machine. ...

I agree with your overall point - it's understandable that some might be pessimistic, though personally I have high hopes and am excited for next season - but that's the orangiest of all orange-colored assessments of the dearly departed. Yowza.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Well the two teams above us next year had quite a bit of unexpected success. Nobody knows how good or bad we will be next year. Also, I don't think pessimism is called being objective. Nobody knows what we are getting out of the three sons next year, or the freshman. Heck Cooney and Roc could improve, or they could stay the same. Pessimists and optimists always think they are realists. An objective analysis about next year: UNKNOWN. We could be really good with our young talent, or really bad with our young talent.

 

[SWC75]

"The good news is that this effort was a complete waste of time"

I credit you for your honesty. I've never had the guts to admit that.

(I am working on something that from the looks of it, might qualify.)

 

[OrOrange44]

"The good news is that this effort was a complete waste of time"

I credit you for your honesty. I've never had the guts to admit that.

(I am working on something that from the looks of it, might qualify.)

SWC it is hard for me to believe anything you have done was a waste of time
I enjoy the hell out of your research projects

OO44

 

[CusefanATL]

Looking ahead to 2014 - 2015 it's pretty clear that we're in for a bit of a watershed year. Between lack of opportunity for the freshmen, early departures and graduations we have a very inexperienced core that lacks obvious objective and subjective leadership. I took a look at the returning points and minutes played expecting to see the numbers bear this out but was a bit surprised to see how historically unproductive the returning core has been. In fact, in terms of returning points per game the seven scholarship players who will take the court next season will be the least productive in JB's career and it's not even close.

Ten lowest:

10. 1995 - 1996 - 38.3 ppg
9. 2007 - 2008 - 37.4
8. 1983 - 1984 - 35.1
7. 2005 - 2006 - 35.1
6. 2013 - 2014 - 33.4
5. 2000 - 2001 - 33.1
4. 2009 - 2010 - 32.8
3. 2012 - 2013 - 31.5
2. 2002 - 2003 - 29.7
1. 2014 - 2015 - 25.4


Returning minutes per game are very similar with next year's squad returning 83.3 mpg, second lowest in the JB era to 2000 - 2001's 82.1 although I couldn't find minutes played prior to 1983. These are the only two teams to return less than 90 minutes a game.


The good news is that this effort was a complete waste of time since there is no real correlation between returning experience and wins. In fact some of our most successful seasons are included in the 10 listed above including the national championship squad and three of JB's four Final Four teams. Looking at those teams specifically a combination of emerging returning talent (MCW, Z, Todd Burgan, Hakeem) and strong freshman play (Melo and GMac) defined the seasons. That's what makes me so excited about next year - the unknown factor. Can K-Jo2 and Chris Mac be impact freshman? Will T-Rob2 or Silent G take advantage of the opportunity and become a breakout star and leader? What can we expect from BJ and Buss as playing time will be wide open on the wings? Can Rak and TC develop a more consistent presence to form a solid inside - outside combination? And what can we expect from a new, transformed DC3?

Stay tuned. Answers will start to be unveiled in 7 months.

sign me up for 09/10, 12/13, and 02/03!!! (the 3 worst)

(i was told everyone knew we would be great those years?)

 

[SUskibum]

i think you actually did uncover something here but it may be the opposite of what you expected. with 3 of our 4 final fours, our Natl Chip, and a couple of our best reg seasons ever, it got me thinking that a lack of returning scorers helps us in some twisted way.

1. We almost always recruit strong so our frosh and unproven previous role players are typically able to contribute if necessary (even if they are not always called on)

2. The lack of a historically strong scorer forces JB to go outside of his comfort zone and more actively design our offensive makeup. One of JBs best and worst qualities is his stubbornness and when he has a reliable scorer coming back he will ride that horse almost no matter the outcome. the most recent example of this was forcing the offense through CJ this year but posters with better memories than i can probably recall years when a proven veteran was fed minutes/shots all year when we had other options that may or may not have worked but were never tried.

anyways food for thought

 

[OttoMets]

... years when a proven veteran was fed minutes/shots all year when we had other options that may or may not have worked but were never tried.

anyways food for thought

2005-2006. [Ducking behind my desk.]

You make a good point.

 

[Garbs]

Next year will be a try out year. So many unproven players the best one can hope for is that JB gives all a chance to play so that he can determine the best for the 2016 team. Don't think there will be any undergrad players going pro and Coleman should take a red shirt. Unfotunately this will be one of the weakest JB teams in a whole while. Definitely a rebuilding year. No orange glasses on for this perspective.

:bat:

 

[Henny & Coke]

i think you actually did uncover something here but it may be the opposite of what you expected. with 3 of our 4 final fours, our Natl Chip, and a couple of our best reg seasons ever, it got me thinking that a lack of returning scorers helps us in some twisted way.

1. We almost always recruit strong so our frosh and unproven previous role players are typically able to contribute if necessary (even if they are not always called on)

2. The lack of a historically strong scorer forces JB to go outside of his comfort zone and more actively design our offensive makeup. One of JBs best and worst qualities is his stubbornness and when he has a reliable scorer coming back he will ride that horse almost no matter the outcome. the most recent example of this was forcing the offense through CJ this year but posters with better memories than i can probably recall years when a proven veteran was fed minutes/shots all year when we had other options that may or may not have worked but were never tried.

anyways food for thought

* So you're saying JB's gameday management/strategies holds Syracuse back from achieving more success. (?)

(* Inferred from observations that Syracuse teams with least returning experience/scoring tend to be most successful in NCAA Tournament, and also observations as to why this may be - including unwillingness to play underclassmen when a vet is available.)

If so, not sure I disagree.

 

[SWC75]

* So you're saying JB's gameday management/strategies holds Syracuse back from achieving more success. (?)

(* Inferred from observations that Syracuse teams with least returning experience/scoring tend to be most successful in NCAA Tournament, and also observations as to why this may be - including unwillingness to play underclassmen when a vet is available.)

If so, not sure I disagree.

Do other coaches have a different comfort zone? Isn't it likely that any coach will tend to go to proven players when they ahve them and give everybody more of a shot when they don't?

 

[baggerbob]

The 1986-1987 team should be on that list, Triche-7.4, Seikaly-10.1, Monroe-4.6, Walker-3.4, Douglas-5.4, Brower-3.5 for a total of 34.4. That team put Syracuse on the map.

 

[Halfmooncuse]

:bat:

 

[jordoo]

I can't understand why an SU fan wouldn't be very excited for next season. Whatever your expectations are, high or low, we will get to see plenty of guys get big minutes and fill bigger roles than they ever have. For me that's one of the great joys of being a college fan and having players cycle through the system. Its going to be fun and exciting whatever the results although I tend to think we will be pretty dang good again next year. People seem to forget that we have been recruiting very well and although we lost 3 starters we are replacing them with 3 studs and the other two returning starters are talented in their own right. Kaleb, Chris and Tyler are top shelf talent.

 

[Consigliere]

The 1986-1987 team should be on that list, Triche-7.4, Seikaly-10.1, Monroe-4.6, Walker-3.4, Douglas-5.4, Brower-3.5 for a total of 34.4. That team put Syracuse on the map.

Wow. You're right. The six returning players that year scored 1031 points for a per game average of 32.2. That makes the Top 5:

5. 2009 - 2010 - 32.8 - National Championship contender until Arinze got hurt
4. 1986 - 1987 - 32.2 - National Champion runner up
3. 2012 - 2013 - 31.5- National Champion runner up
2. 2002 - 2003 - 29.7- National Champion
1. 2014 - 2015 - 25.4 - ?

Maybe I am on to something!

 

[jordoo]

I think what some people don't seem to get is that at least in some way every starter will be better than last years.

Cooney: better than himself last year.
Rakeem: better than himself last year and playing probably 100% of his minutes as a 5 will help even more.
Joseph: better at pushing the pace and driving than Ennis.
Tyler: better rebounder than CJ and probably better around the rim.
Chris: better shooter than Grant and more versitle on offense.

 

[SWC75]

I think what some people don't seem to get is that at least in some way every starter will be better than last years.

Cooney: better than himself last year.
Rakeem: better than himself last year and playing probably 100% of his minutes as a 5 will help even more.
Joseph: better at pushing the pace and driving than Ennis.
Tyler: better rebounder than CJ and probably better around the rim.
Chris: better shooter than Grant and more versitle on offense.

All for it but it would be amazing if we were better at every position than a 28-6 team.

 

[jordoo]

All for it but it would be amazing if we were better at every position than a 28-6 team.

IN SOME WAYS. Not all obviously just pointing out that our replacement guys solve some of our problems from last year of course they have little to no experience and have a lot to learn.

 

[Nicknack]

I think what some people don't seem to get is that at least in some way every starter will be better than last years.

Cooney: better than himself last year.
Rakeem: better than himself last year and playing probably 100% of his minutes as a 5 will help even more.
Joseph: better at pushing the pace and driving than Ennis.
Tyler: better rebounder than CJ and probably better around the rim.
Chris: better shooter than Grant and more versitle on offense.

I was with you after the first two but fell out of the wagon on the last three. It's not that I disagree with you, we just don't know. There is no way to know until they take the court next year. I do agree with your Joseph comment in that we will likely see the pace being pushed more. Although, that isn't saying too much... how could it be any slower than last year? That being said, can Joseph play nearly as methodical and in control as what Ennis did this year? Pushing the pace is fine but not at the expense of a low assist to turnover ratio.