A Sliding Scale to Predict the Won/Loss Column

[Orijinal]

Instead of making outright predictions on what games Syracuse will win this season (which I find utterly pointless), I am going to use here a sliding scale that purports the likelihood that Syracuse will win any given game. Each game is graded on a scale of -5 to 5. -5 means Syracuse has a very slim chance of winning, and 5 means Syracuse has the best chance of winning. A 0 indicates the game is a pull, obviously.

Rhode Island: Likelihood of winning, 5

Wake Forest: Likelihood of winning, 1

Central Michigan: Likelihood of winning, 4

Louisiana State University: Likelihood of winning, -4

South Florida: Likelihood of winning, 3

Virginia: Likelihood of winning, 0

Pittsburgh: Likelihood of winning, -1

Florida State: Likelihood of winning, -3

Louisville: Likelihood of winning, -2

Clemson: Likelihood of winning, -2

North Carolina State: Likelihood of winning, 1

Boston College: Likelihood of winning, -1

Final Stats
Outcome Total: 1 (Whatever this means)
Syracuse is at least slightly favored in 5 games, at least slight dog in 6 games, and one game is a pull
5 games could tilt in either direction, based on grades of -1 to 1
If -2 indicates best possible upset chances, then Louisville and Clemson would be those games. (I wouldn't count beating a team that is listed as a -1 an upset)

Finally, no win or loss is guaranteed. That's why I HATE predictions. Even though I gave Syracuse a 5 against Rhode Island, you never know what can happen. But that SHOULD be a win

 

[Macky44]

So to sum this up... Syracuse in your opinion should win 5 games this year.

 

[Orijinal]

Well, I would say Syracuse SHOULD win 3: Rhode Island, Central Michigan, and South Florida. The other 2 games I would call a "tilt." Probably should win but could go in either direction.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Rhode Island: 5

Wake Forest: 2

Central Michigan: 5

Louisiana State University: -5

@South Florida: -1

@Virginia: -1

Pittsburgh: 0

@Florida State: -5

@Louisville: -2

Clemson: -3

@North Carolina State: -1

Boston College: 0

Outcome Total: -6 (That's probably not good ha ha!)

 

[Orijinal]

Hmm. Why do you have South Florida as a -1? Florida State doesn't have Jameis Winston. I don't think Syracuse is a -5 here at all.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Hmm. Why do you have South Florida as a -1? Florida State doesn't have Jameis Winston. I don't think Syracuse is a -5 here at all.

Recruiting services say that Syracuse and USF recruit at basically the same level. Both teams are coming off of bad seasons and have unproven coaching staffs. I favor USF simply because they are at-home.

I still think Syracuse and Florida State are on different planets in terms of talent.

 

[Orijinal]

Fair enough.

 

[KaiserUEO]

clemson is a definite -5

theyre my sleeper F4 this year.

if they win @lville on a thursday, then they get at death valley...fsu, nd and gatech...and all bets are off.

 

[690West]

Recruiting services say that Syracuse and USF recruit at basically the same level. Both teams are coming off of bad seasons and have unproven coaching staffs. I favor USF simply because they are at-home.

I still think Syracuse and Florida State are on different planets in terms of talent.

I agree with the first part of your analysis, but the 3,500 fans in the stands that day will not constitute home field. I think it's a "0" or +1 instead

 

[Orijinal]

clemson is a definite -5

theyre my sleeper F4 this year.

if they win @lville on a thursday, then they get at death valley...fsu, nd and gatech...and all bets are off.

Eh. I don't see it. Clemson gets very good players but I don't think Dabo is a very good coach.

 

[donniesyracuse]

but the 3,500 fans in the stands that day will not constitute home field. I think it's a "0" or +1 instead

Homefield advantage is about more than fans in the stands.

 

[Alsacs]

URI 5
Wake 3
Central Michigan 4
LSU -5( Les Miles has never lost a regular season OOC at LSU)
@USF 0
Virginia -1
Pitt 0
@Florida State -5
@Louisville -3
Clemson -5
@NC State -1
Boston College 1

So I got -7 I expect 5-7.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Homefield advantage is about more than fans in the stands.

We have a lot of Southern kids who I presume will have large contingents in they stands they want to play well in front of:
Florida:

Georgia

 

[ImperialOrange]

Alabama

 

[Scooch]

We have a lot of Southern kids who I presume will have large contingents in they stands they want to play well in front of:

Sure, but isn't the bigger issue that we need to travel 1,200 miles to Tampa? I think the physical toll of travel can be a bigger impediment that the other team's crowd.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Rhode Island: 5
Wake Forest: 4
Central Michigan: 4
Louisiana State University: -4
@South Florida: 0
@Virginia: -1
Pittsburgh: 1
@Florida State: -4
@Louisville: -3
Clemson: -2
@North Carolina State: 0
Boston College: 1

+/- 1 Home/Away

 

[ImperialOrange]

Sure, but isn't the bigger issue that we need to travel 1,200 miles to Tampa? I think the physical toll of travel can be a bigger impediment that the other team's crowd.

Probably more so if we didn't have a bye week prior.

 

[Scooch]

Probably more so if we didn't have a bye week prior.

Could be. Honestly, I'm ignorant as to the quantitative data on the impact travel.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Could be. Honestly, I'm ignorant as to the quantitative data on the impact travel.

Likewise. It's a lot of guess work but presume the team can fly direct to Tampa from Syracuse?

Love the bye week prior to the game but no telling what we'll look like after LSU... 4-0 I hope

 

[donniesyracuse]

Okay fine, USF will have no home-field advantage. It is pretty much a Syracuse home game.

 

[690West]

Okay fine, USF will have no home-field advantage. It is pretty much a Syracuse home game.

Ha! I just don't think it will be a 3 pt. advantage.

 

[Alsacs]

The only neutral site road games are when the Giants/Jets play at Metlife or when AC/Inter Milan play in San Siro as both teams share the stadium for home games.
Edit: I forget Lakers-Clippers at Staples Center as well.

SU will have fans in the crowd but it will be a road game when we play USF. We have a good chance to win that game but its not a close to a lock its more of a must win.

 

[HtownOrange]

We have a lot of Southern kids who I presume will have large contingents in they stands they want to play well in front of:
Florida:
View attachment 49844
Georgia
View attachment 49845

But northern schools cannot get southern kids!

 

[ImperialOrange]

But northern schools cannot get southern kids!

Good thing we're now In a southern conference

 

[longtimefan]

clemson is a definite -5

theyre my sleeper F4 this year.

if they win @lville on a thursday, then they get at death valley...fsu, nd and gatech...and all bets are off.

Kaiser, you've been doing your homework!

Seriously, if their young QB stays healthy, they could challenge.