ACC Games for Mar 1-3

[pearl31]

We don't want Duke winning. If it comes down to looking at us and looking at Duke, they have a win over UVA. We can't sniff anything close to that good of a win. Take them out of the conversation sooner, then get revenge in the ACCT on a neutral floor. Find a way to get one more win at minimum (ideally more).

It all starts tonight. I would rather Duke be closer to the edge or even be neck and neck with them than not getting to play them and they have us in a H2H and the better wins.

our W over VaTech, though they're not as high in the NET as uva, is at least comparable to Duke's over uva, espec if you look at margin of victory, which the committee has been known to consider from time to time when getting down into the nitty gritty...

 

[Alsacs]

You're underestimating it in terms of quality of teams we're up against... that said, we got work to do

I know what we are up against.
We don’t have many good wins.

We have volume in wins but don’t have a lot of quality.
I don’t think beating UNC, NC State x2, Virginia Tech right now should be close to the bubble.

 

[Orangezoo]

our W over VaTech, though they're not as high in the NET as uva, is at least comparable to Duke's over uva, espec if you look at margin of victory, which the committee has been known to consider from time to time when getting down into the nitty gritty...

Yep. Our first battles are in conference but it's those we are battling out of conference that are hard to overcome and hard to predict.

 

[pearl31]

I know what we are up against.
We don’t have many good wins.

We have volume in wins but don’t have a lot of quality.
I don’t think beating UNC, NC State x2, Virginia Tech right now should be close to the bubble.

You need to view it relatively to what the other teams are bringing to the table. Bubble teams, by nature, do not have a lot of quality. And this year, actual comparisons/criteria are anybody's guess.
Year after year after year after year people on here (and in every fan base) get caught in a myopic tunnel-vision "but our team was such a disappointment/pleasant surprise! we deserve/don't deserve to get in!" trap

 

[Orangezoo]

If you just use the Bracketology page and look at the 16 teams Joey has there and then look past the formality of Q1 wins for these teams, the only two that separate themselves are UConn with their USC win and Xavier with their wins over Oklahoma and Creighton. Lville is a nudge ahead with a road win at Duke and having beaten Seton Hall. It's all extremely close quarters in that grouping aside from the aforementioned. There are some semi bad losses some ok wins and then some wins that pad the record.

 

[Cusefan0307]

There's 11 teams ahead of us on the matrix as of this morning. Beating Clemson would be huge. Winning just one game in the ACC tourney may get us in especially if teams are disqualified. Winning 2 could potentially have us 80% in.

 

[Alsacs]

You need to view it relatively to what the other teams are bringing to the table. Bubble teams, by nature, do not have a lot of quality. And this year, actual comparisons/criteria are anybody's guess.
Year after year after year after year people on here (and in every fan base) get caught in a myopic tunnel-vision "but our team was such a disappointment/pleasant surprise! we deserve/don't deserve to get in!" trap

Michigan State is considered a bubble team. They have a lot better resume than us.
How they aren’t in the field and people think we are in the field is what I go by.

We don’t have a single quad 1 win.
We are a team with a bunch of wins but not quality.

Beating Virginia Tech and North Carolina aren’t making us a NCAAT team.

I am looking now at the bubble.

If we beat Florida State or Virginia I will recalibrate. Until then I am not putting us close to being on the good side of the bubble.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Michigan State is considered a bubble team. They have a lot better resume than us.
How they aren’t in the field and people think we are in the field is what I go by.

We don’t have a single quad 1 win.
We are a team with a bunch of wins but not quality.

Beating Virginia Tech and North Carolina aren’t making us a NCAAT team.

I am looking now at the bubble.

If we beat Florida State or Virginia I will recalibrate. Until then I am not putting us close to being on the good side of the bubble.

We are closer than you think based on the matrix. Michigan State is 71 in the NET. If they value it like they used to value the RPI that’s why they aren’t in. They also got blasted by Minnesota and Northwestern.

 

[Alsacs]

We are closer than you think based on the matrix. Michigan State is 71 in the NET. If they value it like they used to value the RPI that’s why they aren’t in. They also got blasted by Minnesota and Northwestern.

Losses affect the computers.
Teams that win good games get in the tournament over teams that just pile up wins over mediocrity especially if that mediocrity is mainly at home.

If we played Michigan State’s schedule this season I don’t us having a better record than they do now.

Our conference sucking is evaluating our record with how we have played this year.

 

[jdubs30]

I think UConn is safely in but if you look at their resume compared to ours (these are KenPom numbers, not NET)

Top 50 wins:
UConn - 1 (neutral court)
Syracuse - 2 (both home)

50-75 wins:
UConn - 2 (1 home, 1 away)
Syracuse - 3 (2 home, 1 away)

75-100 wins:
UConn - 3 ( 2 away, 1 home)
Syracuse - 2 (both home)

Losses:
UConn - 9, 15 (2x), 44, 69, 73
Syracuse- 16, 30, 32, 33, 37, 81 (2x)

I do think their in, but other than the USC win, their best win is at Xavier. Our resumes are fairly similar (granted they went 4-4 without Bouknight).

It’ll be interesting how the committee values the NET this year. But I think our resume is comparable.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Losses affect the computers.
Teams that win good games get in the tournament over teams that just pile up wins over mediocrity especially if that mediocrity is mainly at home.

If we played Michigan State’s schedule this season I don’t us having a better record than they do now.

Our conference sucking is evaluating our record with how we have played this year.

And they also penalize for bad losses. Right??

I will recalibrate after tonight, but I expect we will show up on more brackets if we win tonight. If anything I think you could argue Sparty deserves to be in over Seton Hall who is dropping anyway.

We need to compare ourselves to WSU, Drake, Boise, and CSU. Once you do that you realize we aren’t that far off.

 

[Alsacs]

I think UConn is safely in but if you look at their resume compared to ours (these are KenPom numbers, not NET)

Top 50 wins:
UConn - 1 (neutral court)
Syracuse - 2 (both home)

50-75 wins:
UConn - 2 (1 home, 1 away)
Syracuse - 3 (2 home, 1 away)

75-100 wins:
UConn - 3 ( 2 away, 1 home)
Syracuse - 2 (both home)

Losses:
UConn - 9, 15 (2x), 44, 69, 73
Syracuse- 16, 30, 32, 33, 37, 81 (2x)

I do think their in, but other than the USC win, their best win is at Xavier. Our resumes are fairly similar (granted they went 4-4 without Bouknight).

It’ll be interesting how the committee values the NET this year. But I think our resume is comparable.

UConn is barely in. They will be a 8-11 seed.

If the entire bubble sucks to the degree that we are close then the Big Ten is going to get 10 teams in.

Since they all beat each other at home and piled up good wins.

 

[Alsacs]

And they also penalize for bad losses. Right??

I will recalibrate after tonight, but I expect we will show up on more brackets if we win tonight. If anything I think you could argue Sparty deserves to be in over Seton Hall who is dropping anyway.

We need to compare ourselves to WSU, Drake, Boise, and CSU. Once you do that you realize we aren’t that far off.

If we are close then a team like Memphis which has just complied a bunch of wins over garbage AAC teams should be close.

I don’t consider Memphis in.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I think UConn is safely in but if you look at their resume compared to ours (these are KenPom numbers, not NET)

Top 50 wins:
UConn - 1 (neutral court)
Syracuse - 2 (both home)

50-75 wins:
UConn - 2 (1 home, 1 away)
Syracuse - 3 (2 home, 1 away)

75-100 wins:
UConn - 3 ( 2 away, 1 home)
Syracuse - 2 (both home)

Losses:
UConn - 9, 15 (2x), 44, 69, 73
Syracuse- 16, 30, 32, 33, 37, 81 (2x)

I do think their in, but other than the USC win, their best win is at Xavier. Our resumes are fairly similar (granted they went 4-4 without Bouknight).

It’ll be interesting how the committee values the NET this year. But I think our resume is comparable.

Yes. I supposed they are getting the benefit Of doubt for Bouknight getting injured.

 

[jdubs30]

Yes. I supposed they are getting the benefit Of doubt for Bouknight getting injured.

Which is fine I definitely get that. But that probably bumps them up a seedline. They probably still get in because of their resume, which isn’t a whole lot better than ours, IMO. That Pitt game we blew is going to kill us

 

[Cusefan0307]

If we are close then a team like Memphis which has just complied a bunch of wins over garbage AAC teams should be close.

I don’t consider Memphis in.

Memphis is in about the same position as us which isn’t that far off the bubble.

 

[pearl31]

Memphis is in about the same position as us which isn’t that far off the bubble.

both teams are on the (still quite large, relatively undefined) bubble.
no one with any credibility tries to pinpoint who's in/out at this point in any season - let alone this whacky-ass covid season

 

[Alsacs]

Memphis is in about the same position as us which isn’t that far off the bubble.

We had a chance for an at-large IMO when we lost to Duke and Georgia Tech it went away.
The lost Louisville games screw us.
If you added a win against them and a win against Pitt I think we are in.

 

[pearl31]

The lost Louisville games screw us.

A factor (for SU and for other teams suffering similar screw-jobs) the committee will quite possibly consider

 

[jdubs30]

We lost 3 chances at Q1 games, and perhaps an automatic win in Wake

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

If I'm reading the standings correctly, which I'm definitely not, then it seems like NC State beating ND (right now) would be very helpful for Cuse.

1) Helps bump NC State into Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins
2) Consider the Duke UNC game this weekend. If Duke wins, Cuse can finish 7th ahead of UNC and avoid the 8/9 game. If Duke loses (and NC St wins tonight), NC State would finish with a better record than Duke (assuming NC St doesn't find a replacement game this weekend). So, even if Duke loses to UNC, then NC State would finish 9th ahead of Duke, giving Cuse (the 8 seed in this scenario) an easier matchup in the 8/9 game.

 

[jdubs30]

Yes

 

[NineOneSeven]

Beautiful opening sentence. Really set the tone.

 

[Finwad32]

NC St pulling away with 4 to go... nice...