ACC Games for Nov 6-8

[Cuse_NYC]

Ya he’s also erased bidunga

Bidunga had a good first half. He’s missed some chippies.

 

[Niastri]

Bill Self is going to take a leave of absence for the rest of the year.

Dudes back just started hurting. But the time they lose to us, he's going to be laying on the court in front of the bench like Larry Bird

 

[hoopsupstate]

Veesaar could give us fits

He’s really good. He understands how to play and he’s huge. Rolls very well and has great hands. Can also step out and hit the three. I’m not sure how we will control him.

 

[llandz]

Just started watching after watching the SU women's game

 

[RedtheGOB]

Get ready for the we have no answer for 7 foot Veesaar people when we get to UNC.

Veesaar may have more talent and better stats across the board but guarantee Kyle weighs more and jumps higher. It won’t be height that is the factor. He cost 1.5 mil by the way and Kyle prob was about 10% of that.

 

[llandz]

Kansas. The team that never ceases to disappoint their fans early in the season,

 

[Ggaenzle]

Caleb Wilson vs Freeman will be fun

 

[orangefog]

He’s really good. He understands how to play and he’s huge. Rolls very well and has great hands. Can also step out and hit the three. I’m not sure how we will control him.

Kyle is long and he can jump, but I am a bit concerned about his timing blocking shots. Jerami McNeil seemed to always time his jump perfectly. Kyle seems a bit late. Learning to play the pick and roll will be huge for us against UNC. Veesaar just rolls and he is big. Kansas didn't play it well at all.

 

[orangefog]

Caleb Wilson vs Freeman will be fun

I wish we could find a starting lineup with Freeman and White at the forwards, but I think we need Kingz out there. It's a nice problem to have. But, Red has to figure out the rotations quickly. I don't think UNC made a substitution until over 10 minutes into the second half. If a lineup is working, don't screw with it!!!

 

[jncuse]

I hope you do. i asked about this somewhere else earlier. We need a whole thread on the metrics foe the cupcakes. We have 8 of them and need to blow them out.

How much does the blowout need to be though? Obvi more than 10. 20 maybe not enough tho. Hard to tell. Teams are out there trying to win by 50.

You asked the question in another thread and I never had a chance to answer. I'm going to use KP instead of NET, because you can sort of "back" into KP movements, and you can do it with NET. But they are correlate quite well as they are margin based.

The following are end of year impacts,
- If a team ranked #50 plays a team #330, they would be expected to win by 24-25 points.
- If you win by 40, you did 15 points better than expected. KP is a per/100 system, and since most games are around 70 possessions, that would mean you did 22/100 better than expected. Over the course of a season that improves your adjusted margin by about 0.7 (22/31 games).
- Alternatively if you only won by 10, your adjusted margin goes down by about 0.7

If I look at KP adjusted margins end of last year -- that 0.7 jump moves you up from #50 to #49, and moves you down from 50 to 57 if it's a bad game.. But where KP are this year it moves you up from #50 to #44, and moves you down to 54.

It's never going to be the exact same move up or down, because some time teams from #50-#55 are just really close to each other or a bit more spread out.

But my rough estimate -- winning a game by 40 (when you are supposed to win by 25), will move up a team that is #50 by around 3-4 spots at year end -- and if you win by only 10, you might move down 3-4 spots. That's not nominal -- the difference between the same level team having a really good night or a really bad night against a bottom feeder, could make the difference between your KP (and NET) being 46/47 instead of 53/54.

Movements will be more significant up and down early in the year because you are averaging things out over 8-10 games to start the season, while by year its over 31 games.

 

[jncuse]

I only eye-balled the other league scores season to date (B12, B10, BE), and didn't compile the numbers like I did for the ACC and SEC. But just eyeballing it I could tell that the Big 12 has not had a good start to the season in the margin game which they typically excel at.

You can only really only look at bottom feeder games for now, because its the majority of the sample, but early on after 1 game,

#1. SEC
gap
#2/#3. ACC and B10
gap
#4/#5 B12 and BEast

Of course its only 1 game, so too early for a trend, and its all bottom feeder comparisons And of course there really hasn't been much quality games.

 

[Cuse_NYC]

Kyle is long and he can jump, but I am a bit concerned about his timing blocking shots. Jerami McNeil seemed to always time his jump perfectly. Kyle seems a bit late. Learning to play the pick and roll will be huge for us against UNC. Veesaar just rolls and he is big. Kansas didn't play it well at all.

100000% agree.

 

[RedtheGOB]

You asked the question in another thread and I never had a chance to answer. I'm going to use KP instead of NET, because you can sort of "back" into KP movements, and you can do it with NET. But they are correlate quite well as they are margin based.

The following are end of year impacts,
- If a team ranked #50 plays a team #330, they would be expected to win by 24-25 points.
- If you win by 40, you did 15 points better than expected. KP is a per/100 system, and since most games are around 70 possessions, that would mean you did 22/100 better than expected. Over the course of a season that improves your adjusted margin by about 0.7 (22/31 games).
- Alternatively if you only won by 10, your adjusted margin goes down by about 0.7

If I look at KP adjusted margins end of last year -- that 0.7 jump moves you up from #50 to #49, and moves you down from 50 to 57 if it's a bad game.. But where KP are this year it moves you up from #50 to #44, and moves you down to 54.

It's never going to be the exact same move up or down, because some time teams from #50-#55 are just really close to each other or a bit more spread out.

But rough estimate -- would be winning a game by 40 (when you are supposed to win by 25), will move up a team that is #50 by typically 4 spots at year end -- and you win by only 10, you might move down 4 spots. That's not nominal -- the difference between the same level team having a really good night or a really bad night against a bottom feeder, could make the difference between being 46/47 or 53/54.

Movements will be more significant up and down early in the year because you are averaging things out over 8-10 games to start the season, while by year its over 31 games.

Thanks so much for this. Awesome. I did a quick read but need to look at it a little closer later.

Honestly thought it would be expected that a 50th team would beat a 330th team by more than 25, more like 35-40 or more.

With NIL the talent these days on the sub 300 teams compared with a #50ish team isn’t even close. Sometimes I wonder if a 330 team which is a buy game for them anyway is gonna play their starters down the stretch of games down big anyway cuz they may actually want to keep them healthy and not exhausted for their next games that matter.

So teams are actually compounding all the stats even more by playing against reserves. You could prob tell me but guarantee no teams are getting capped when Louisville won by 59 for example and the SC state bench played more mins than their starters.

 

[Cuse_NYC]

Westry vs Copeland on ACCN

 

[jncuse]

Thanks so much for this. Awesome. I did a quick read but need to look at it a little closer later.

Honestly thought it would be expected that a 50th team would beat a 330th team by more than 25, more like 35-40 or more.

With NIL the talent these days on the sub 300 teams compared with a #50ish team isn’t even close. Sometimes I wonder if a 330 team which is a buy game for them anyway is gonna play their starters down the stretch of games down big anyway cuz they may actually want to keep them healthy and not exhausted for their next games that matter.

So teams are actually compounding all the stats even more by playing against reserves. You could prob tell me but guarantee no teams are getting capped when Louisville won by 59 for example and the SC state bench played more mins than their starters.

I don't disagree with that comment, I am basing it on KP which generally correlates strongly with game lines. You may be right that these bottom feeders are getting bombed a little more than normal. (his model is probably based on past, and the portal makes it continually worse for the worst of the NAA) The SEC team is winning by 38.3 in these Q4 bottom feeder games, and the average ACC team is winning by 32.3. That being said I have not calculated the three other P5 conferences and just eyeballing it they will seem to be more in the 20-25 range.

That being said, no matter what the "expectation" is... two equal teams, one beats the bottom feeder by 40, and one beats them by 10, it will create a 6-8 spot difference by season end.

 

[Cheriehoop]

Westry vs Copeland in ACCN

They are both #11 too - what a coincidence.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Westry is moving well. Good to see.

 

[jncuse]

Thanks so much for this. Awesome. I did a quick read but need to look at it a little closer later.

Honestly thought it would be expected that a 50th team would beat a 330th team by more than 25, more like 35-40 or more.

With NIL the talent these days on the sub 300 teams compared with a #50ish team isn’t even close. Sometimes I wonder if a 330 team which is a buy game for them anyway is gonna play their starters down the stretch of games down big anyway cuz they may actually want to keep them healthy and not exhausted for their next games that matter.

So teams are actually compounding all the stats even more by playing against reserves. You could prob tell me but guarantee no teams are getting capped when Louisville won by 59 for example and the SC state bench played more mins than their starters.

I thought about this further. I went back and looked at the data I tracked last year, and the tables I had spit out. P5 teams won on average by 27.6 points when they played a bottom half Q4 team (261-360).

The average P5 team is probably around #50... maybe closer to #45. The average P5 team is probably one of the last teams in. So I would say 25-28 is the target for you if you are fighting for a tourney spot.

Getting in the NCAA is still about quality wins and losses, but you don't want to be a bubble team with a NET in the 60's, and that could happen if you stink at the margin game.

 

[Bulldog04]

Kansas looked like Binghamton. One good player on their team.

 

[Starman]

Westry is moving well. Good to see.

He looks pretty good vs NC State. I hope to someday hear the story about what happened to keep him off the court last year, but also respect his right to privacy.