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ACC Tourney Bids

PoppyHart

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4 are locks.

Mathematics essentially hands out a 5th bid, and reputation gives the 6th.

4 have been eliminated (Va Tech, Miami, BC, and GT). A few others (ND, MD, NC State) are on life support.

Who is most likely to snag the 5th bid? UNC, Wake, FSU, or Clemson? It's sad, but none deserve it.
 
Unless UNC gets their act together, I don't see how they get one.
 
I think FSU is in pretty decent shape. They have lost 6 games, but all of them are to tournament teams (UVA twice, Duke, Michigan, Florida, and Minnesota-maybe I am too early in putting Minnesota in there) and 4 of them were true roadies, with one being at home. They also beat VCU and Umass on neutrals, and have a win over Clemson.
Lunardi has them as the first 8 seed right now. The schedule is a lot kinder to them the rest of the year; they play 4 top 50 KP teams the rest of the way; they get us, Clemson, and UNC at home, and go to Pitt. They're probably ending with 11 or 12 wins in the conf.
 
I think FSU is in pretty decent shape. They have lost 6 games, but all of them are to tournament teams (UVA twice, Duke, Michigan, Florida, and Minnesota-maybe I am too early in putting Minnesota in there) and 4 of them were true roadies, with one being at home. They also beat VCU and Umass on neutrals, and have a win over Clemson.
Lunardi has them as the first 8 seed right now. The schedule is a lot kinder to them the rest of the year; they play 4 top 50 KP teams the rest of the way; they get us, Clemson, and UNC at home, and go to Pitt. They're probably ending with 11 or 12 wins in the conf.

Good analysis. You're probably right. But it's sad that they could get in with UMASS as their best win (unless they beat us or Pitt).
 
UNC will get enough wins against the bottom half of the conference to just get enough wins to get in. Remember they have 3 signature wins OOC against top 15 teams that will look good on a comparative resume.
 
4 are locks.

Mathematics essentially hands out a 5th bid, and reputation gives the 6th.

4 have been eliminated (Va Tech, Miami, BC, and GT). A few others (ND, MD, NC State) are on life support.

Who is most likely to snag the 5th bid? UNC, Wake, FSU, or Clemson? It's sad, but none deserve it.


I think Florida State is a pretty good team, Duke loss notwithstanding. They weren't calling any fouls at all on Duke early in that game, and they were fouling every single time when they would hedge/switch/double up high.
 
Good analysis. You're probably right. But it's sad that they could get in with UMASS as their best win (unless they beat us or Pitt).

I hear that, but that also can be life on the bubble. Just quickly scanning the first 4 teams from last year, LaSalle and Boise State had 3 wins each vs tournament teams, and then you had St Marys who had one, and Middle Tennessee, who had Ole Miss. You figure VCU and Umass make it. And they lost really clsoe games to Michigan and Florida, for whatever that is worth. But you are right, they might make it in with just those 2 wins over tourny teams.
 
Florida St is in good shape. They have a had tough schedule in the ACC so far with at Duke, and two games against Virginia. I think they will get 10-8 for sure, and that would be enough with their OOC, and the relative weakness of the bubble.

OOC was good (for a team on the bubble - if they get threre) with UMass and neutral over VCU. If close losses are considered, they lost at Florida by 1, and lost on a neutral court to Michigan by 2.



UNC... well, I think if they end up 8-10 in the ACC they get an at large. Those OOC wins are a huge to a resume. RPI forecast currently has UNC projected at 8-10 in the ACC.

Resume would be as follows
18-13
RPI 56
Top 25 4-4
Top 50 5-6
Top 100 9-10
OOC SOS 27 (which is very strong), and 3 big wins.

The question is can UNC get to 8-10?

As an FYI, if Clemson gets to 10-8 (as currently projected on RPI forecast)
19-11
RPI 65
Top 50 3-6
Top 100 6-8
OOC SOS 282, and no wins against tourney teams.

That's easy - NIT. The OOC really kills them. OOC matters - Florida St at 10-8 is good, UNC at 8-10 is good, and Clemson at 10-8 is out (unless it has unusual mix of results)

We must consider how weak the bubble is (which has become typical in the field of 68).
 
Florida St is in good shape. They have a had tough schedule in the ACC so far with at Duke, and two games against Virginia. I think they will get 10-8 for sure, and that would be enough with their OOC, and the relative weakness of the OOC.

OOC was good (for a team on the bubble - if they get threre) with UMass and neutral over VCU. If close losses are considered, they lost at Florida by 1, and lost on a neutral court to Michigan by 2.

UNC... well, I think if they end up 8-10 in the ACC they get an at large. Those OOC wins are a huge to a resume. RPI forecast currently has UNC projected at 8-10 in the ACC.

Resume would be as follows
18-13
RPI 56
Top 25 4-4
Top 50 5-6
Top 100 9-10
OOC SOS 27 (which is very strong), and 3 big wins.

The question is can UNC get to 8-10?

As an FYI, if Clemson gets to 10-8 (as currently projected on RPI forecast)
19-11
RPI 65
Top 50 3-6
Top 100 6-8
OOC SOS 282, and no wins against tourney teams.

That's easy - NIT.

We must consider how weak the bubble is (which has become typical in the field of 68).
UNC won't get to 8-10 but even if they did, noway that gets them in in this conference. Roy boy is nit bound
 
A few weeks ago somebody said the ACC was going to get 7 maybe 8 bids, made me laugh. I said 5 then and still think that'll be it but 4 or 6 is possible.
 
8-10 with the work UNC did OOC might get it done. That is a 7-6 finish, would put them at 18-13 heading in the ACCT.

Fwiw, KP has them finishing at 8-10. Here is the schedule, home and then road
home: Clemson, NC State, Maryland, Duke, Pitt, Wake, ND.
road: Ga Tech, ND, FSU, NC State, Va tech, Duke.

Can you find them 7 wins there? 5 wins at home, wins @both techs would do it. I think if they get to 8 and one of those is Duke or Pitt at home, they might end up in.
 
UNC won't get to 8-10 but even if they did, noway that gets them in in this conference. Roy boy is nit bound

The field has to get to 68 teams.

Consider the bracket matrix entering today.

These are the last 6 teams in

Tennessee
SMU
Stanford
UNC
Providence
Dayton

Last Teams Out

Arkansas
BYU
Arizona St
St. Mary's

Those are not teams that are going to end up with great resumes either. UNC at 8-10 would be on the bubble, and the committee has used OOC SOS and OOC wins to separate teams from the bubble for the past few years.
 
The field has to get to 68 teams.

Consider the bracket matrix entering today.

These are the last 6 teams in

Tennessee
SMU
Stanford
UNC
Providence
Dayton

Last Teams Out

Arkansas
BYU
Arizona St
St. Mary's

Those are not teams that are going to end up with great resumes either. UNC at 8-10 would be on the bubble, and the committee has used OOC SOS and OOC wins to separate teams from the bubble for the past few years.
I don't know what a bracket bubble matrix is, but I'd take Arkansas and maybe asu (although I think they suck) over UNC. UNC quit a month ago.
 
8-10 with the work UNC did OOC might get it done. That is a 7-6 finish, would put them at 18-13 heading in the ACCT.

Fwiw, KP has them finishing at 8-10. Here is the schedule, home and then road
home: Clemson, NC State, Maryland, Duke, Pitt, Wake, ND.
road: Ga Tech, ND, FSU, NC State, Va tech, Duke.

Can you find them 7 wins there? 5 wins at home, wins @both techs would do it. I think if they get to 8 and one of those is Duke or Pitt at home, they might end up in.

I think they have some shot at getting 7 wins in there, but less than 50%. They seemed to have quit right now, but maybe a couple wins strung back to back will get them back on track.

If they get to 8-10, even without a win over Pitt or Duke, I see them at over 80% shot of getting in the tourney.
 
I don't know what a bracket bubble matrix is, but I'd take Arkansas and maybe asu (although I think they suck) over UNC. UNC quit a month ago.

UNC quitting (which is quite probable) is not really the point though.

You said UNC would not get if they end up at 8-10 -- this is not accurate in my view of studying the current bracket, past brackets, and what their projected resume would be at 8-10.

Arizona St, at 10-8 in the PAC 12 (assuming standard mixture of results) would not have as good a resume as UNC at 8-10 It has no real quality wins OOC. Best win is at home vs Marquette or at UNLV (non tourney teams)

I do like Arkansas shot of getting in the tourney. Based on Sagarin they are tracking to 21-10, 10-8 in SEC, 3-5 vs top 50, 8-8 vs top 100. What helps them is their OOC over SMU. Minnesota and Clemson. Its nice for a bubble team. It would still be behind UNC at 8-10 in my view, but I would see both teams getting in.

The bracket matrix is a consolidation of all the bracket projections that exist. It is just a simple tool to see who is on the bubble as of now. What it shows right now is those last teams in/out are not going to be that good.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
 
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I think FSU is in pretty decent shape. They have lost 6 games, but all of them are to tournament teams (UVA twice, Duke, Michigan, Florida, and Minnesota-maybe I am too early in putting Minnesota in there) and 4 of them were true roadies, with one being at home. They also beat VCU and Umass on neutrals, and have a win over Clemson.
Lunardi has them as the first 8 seed right now. The schedule is a lot kinder to them the rest of the year; they play 4 top 50 KP teams the rest of the way; they get us, Clemson, and UNC at home, and go to Pitt. They're probably ending with 11 or 12 wins in the conf.
Minnesota is turning out to be a great win for us. Lil Pitino is doin pretty well for himself I gotta say. 3pt loss to Michigan, OT loss to Michigan St, wins over Ohio St and Wiscy. Their only other loss in conference was too Iowa, who ran through them. But still.. That could easily be their only conference loss right now.
 

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