Adjusted (for SOS) yards per play ranking - through 5 games

[Louie and Bouie]

Below is the adjusted yards per play (offense and defense) taking into account SOS to date and ranking out of FBS teams. Further, this statistic takes into account pace of play and all the additional snaps/plays that tempo teams create, offensively and defensively, during a game. All stats use data versus FBS competition only. 128 teams are ranked in FBS.

The stats are retrieved from cfbanalytics.com which is a great advanced statistical website. It also has common statistical categories like Total Offense and Total Defense statistics for all you meatheads (tongue firmly in cheek).

Offense -

Adj. yards per run - 3.44 (#111)

Adj yards per pass - 7.64 (#66)

Adj. yards per play - 5.97 (#69)

Defense -

Adj. yards per run - 5.97 (#126)

Adj. yards per pass - 8.77 (#108)

Adj. yards per play - 7.36 (#126)


Attempting to correlate current statistical performance of Syracuse to the current Top 25 teams showed me a few things that were interesting to me:

1. Obviously, the defense is just plain bad (trying to be nice with my description). The ongoing debate regarding the blame for this on the coaches, talent, scheme seems somewhat fruitless as there is more than enough to go around for anyone involved with the defense at this point. Plain and simple, the defense needs to get significantly better statistically or nothing the offense does will make enough of a difference to get to our ultimate goal of being nationally relevant.

2. The offense needs to get much more efficient also. The increased pace and number of plays has certainly provided more excitement for the viewer/fan and has led to great individual stat lines for media sites, announcers and fans touting the new high powered offense and all of that is good. I have described it to my friends who have tuned out Syracuse football as a new and exciting way to lose. Seriously, I'm on board with the additional publicity of having all of these yards gained thrown around in a positive fashion for the program. I hope it all helps with bringing fans back to the Dome, improving recruiting and ultimately wins. However, outside of the headlines and records, the reality is that this is currently a very inefficient offensive product and needs to do much better as a unit moving forward. Currently, there are only 4 teams in the Top 25 that have worse adj. yards per play on offense than Syracuse (Arkansas, Florida, Utah and Wisconsin) and their defenses are all rated much better than ours currently.

3. Statistically speaking, the formula for success for SU under Babers that can work is a Top 25 offense and a Top 50-75 defense based upon adj. yards per play if we truly want to get into a conversation about sniffing the national Top 25 or 30. There is no way that this is happening this year or probably next but is a good measurement of where we want to be moving into the future.

Anywho, just wanted to share some of my newest statistical findings which interested me. I offer no current solutions as that is not the purpose of the post.

 

[PhatOrange]

Curious what has Babers yards per play been historically?

 

[TheCusian]

Good post. Jives with what we're experiencing for sure.

I'd offer that the trajectory feels different. That we're headed in a better direction as a program even if it feels like we're treading water. The other thing that should be trending up is offensive recruiting.

And maybe that's enough for this year.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

When you are 126 out of 128 it is a mix of talent, coaching, and scheme. That is what worries me for 2018. If our coaching and scheme are causing MAC level talent to be the worst D in the nation, what will happen when we have AAC level talent? Will they turn them into a MAC level D? If so we cannot hope for more than a 6-6 record.

 

[RF2044]

When you are 126 out of 128 it is a mix of talent, coaching, and scheme. That is what worries me for 2018. If our coaching and scheme are causing MAC level talent to be the worst D in the nation, what will happen when we have AAC level talent? Will they turn them into a MAC level D? If so we cannot hope for more than a 6-6 record.

That seems like the wrong frame of logic to apply. If the talent improves, then the results should improve even if coaching / scheme remain constant.

If you inherently think that the coaching is subpar, then that's a different discussion. It's also a belief that i don't happen to share. Get better pass rush from the DEs, and the secondary won't be isolated as much on an island. Improve the size / speed / physicality of the back 7, and we should on paper be able to compete better.

You are correct: all three have been a factor this season, but the talent factor appears to be by far the biggest issue. Coaching and scheme doesn't make plays on the field--athletes do, and often there is a small margin between a player making a stop or giving up huge chunks of yardage. Athletes make coaching / scheme look good.

 

[TheCusian]

When you are 126 out of 128 it is a mix of talent, coaching, and scheme. That is what worries me for 2018. If our coaching and scheme are causing MAC level talent to be the worst D in the nation, what will happen when we have AAC level talent? Will they turn them into a MAC level D? If so we cannot hope for more than a 6-6 record.

That's a whole lot of what ifs. And not that straightforward. I think issues on D compound. Evaluating scheme is near impossible with inexperience and talent deficiencies.

 

[Crusty]

That seems like the wrong frame of logic to apply. If the talent improves, then the results should improve even if coaching / scheme remain constant.

If you inherently think that the coaching is subpar, then that's a different discussion. It's also a belief that i don't happen to share. Get better pass rush from the DEs, and the secondary won't be isolated as much on an island. Improve the size / speed / physicality of the back 7, and we should on paper be able to compete better.

You are correct: all three have been a factor this season, but the talent factor appears to be by far the biggest issue. Coaching and scheme doesn't make plays on the field--athletes do, and often there is a small margin between a player making a stop or giving up huge chunks of yardage. Athletes make coaching / scheme look good.

Absolutely nothing wrong with this staff. Their record speaks for itself.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Absolutely nothing wrong with this staff. Their record speaks for itself.

One year at a MAC school as DC is a record? We had ONE defender on trips pre snap several times vs ND. We had other plays being called out by surrounding ND fans pre snap in the stands simply by our alignment. It doesn't matter what talent you have if you "attack" the way we have at times this year. There is a reason why Petrino and Kelly took shots first play of the game. They knew by scheme they would have the play there.

 

[upperdeck]

if you watched the game Sat, there were many times the pass play took 3-5 secs.. normally that is enough for a dline to get home.. had that happened many of the plays break down much better for us.

 

[Chip]

if you watched the game Sat, there were many times the pass play took 3-5 secs.. normally that is enough for a dline to get home.. had that happened many of the plays break down much better for us.

I was hoping Kizer would distract himself by whistling while he waited.

 

[GoSU96]

Most 20+ yds plays allowed, 4 most 30+, 3rd most 40+, 2nd most 50+ and so on. Given up 2500 yds through 50 games, approximately 20% on nine plays.

Stop the home run plays and the numbers get normalized.

The numbers are skewed for a team that is 45th in 3rd down defense and forcing 6.2 punts a game.

The defense is getting some stops, the problem is, it's giving up a ridiculous number of long plays.

 

[Louie and Bouie]

Curious what has Babers yards per play been historically?

Only able to pull the Bowling Green stats from 2014 and 2015 as the prior stop at E. Illinois was FCS. There are no SOS adjustments to these numbers.

Offense (yards per play)-

2014 - 5.2 (#75)

2015 - 6.5 (#14)

Defense (yards per play allowed) -

2014 - 6.0 (#97)

2015 - 5.3 (#46)

Definitively there was dramatic improvement in these key statistical categories from Year 1 to Year 2. This statistic supports the wait until year 2 approach.

Additionally, the ranking as against other FBS teams is more informative than the raw ypp is at it takes into account all other FBS games and any national trends regarding yardage/tempo etc.

 

[upperdeck]

FSU which has way more talent is really going crazy about all the mistakes on D.. it happens.

 

[SWC75]

Only able to pull the Bowling Green stats from 2014 and 2015 as the prior stop at E. Illinois was FCS. There are no SOS adjustments to these numbers.

Offense (yards per play)-

2014 - 5.2 (#75)

2015 - 6.5 (#14)

Defense (yards per play allowed) -

2014 - 6.0 (#97)

2015 - 5.3 (#46)

Definitively there was dramatic improvement in these key statistical categories from Year 1 to Year 2. This statistic supports the wait until year 2 approach.

Additionally, the ranking as against other FBS teams is more informative than the raw ypp is at it takes into account all other FBS games and any national trends regarding yardage/tempo etc.

From my SU football preview:

EIU:

Here are a set of team stats from 2011, (Spoo’s last year), 2012 and 2013, with the total and the national rank in parenthesis:

Offensive Rushing Yards Per Game 86(108) 136(76) 217(20)
Offensive Passing yards Per Game 240(27) 335(6) 372(2)
Offensive Total Yards Per Game 326(89) 471(7) 590(1)
Offensive Points Per Game 23(79) 36.5(8) 48(1)
Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game 240(114) 170(71) 170(63)
Defensive Passing Yards Per Game 164(7) 265(112) 204(38)
Defensive Total Yards 404(92) 435(102) 374(63)
Defensive Points Per Game 31(94) 36(106) 23(26)
Sacks Created 14(104) 25(54) 26(67)
Sacks Allowed 28(81) 29(80) 20(34)
Turnover Margin -14 (114) -5(92) +14(6)

BG:

Here are the BG team numbers from 2013-2105: (Babers took over in 2014)
Offensive Rushing Yards Per Game 193(39) 173(54) 180(52)
Offensive Passing yards Per Game 266(31) 260(40) 367(5)
Offensive Total Yards Per Game 459(29) 433(41) 547(4)
Offensive Points Per Game 35(28) 30(56) 42(6)
Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game 151(46) 202(99) 183(79)
Defensive Passing Yards Per Game 171(6) 291(122) 235(78)
Defensive Total Yards 321(10) 494(115) 418(86)
Defensive Points Per Game 16(5) 33.5(106) 30(84)
Sacks Created 30(58) 28(74) 30(63)
Sacks Allowed 41(108) 28(56) 36(98)
Turnover Margin +10 (19) +10(17) +12(9)

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Only able to pull the Bowling Green stats from 2014 and 2015 as the prior stop at E. Illinois was FCS. There are no SOS adjustments to these numbers.

Offense (yards per play)-

2014 - 5.2 (#75)

2015 - 6.5 (#14)

Defense (yards per play allowed) -

2014 - 6.0 (#97)

2015 - 5.3 (#46)

Definitively there was dramatic improvement in these key statistical categories from Year 1 to Year 2. This statistic supports the wait until year 2 approach.

Additionally, the ranking as against other FBS teams is more informative than the raw ypp is at it takes into account all other FBS games and any national trends regarding yardage/tempo etc.

Eastern Illinois it was

O
2012 5.59 (N/A)
2013 6.77 (7th)

D
2012 4.98 (N/A)
2013 4.91 (22nd)

 

[Crusty]

One year at a MAC school as DC is a record? We had ONE defender on trips pre snap several times vs ND. We had other plays being called out by surrounding ND fans pre snap in the stands simply by our alignment. It doesn't matter what talent you have if you "attack" the way we have at times this year. There is a reason why Petrino and Kelly took shots first play of the game. They knew by scheme they would have the play there.

I am sure you know better than they do. Maybe you should apply

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I am sure you know better than they do. Maybe you should apply

You do realize that coaches get fired all the time for being bad at their job? The logic that coaches are always doing things right is silly. I am sure the ND DC is pretty knowledgable at FB. He was let go because he couldn't apply that knowledge into results.

 

[Chip]

Most 20+ yds plays allowed, 4 most 30+, 3rd most 40+, 2nd most 50+ and so on. Given up 2500 yds through 50 games, approximately 20% on nine plays.

Stop the home run plays and the numbers get normalized.

The numbers are skewed for a team that is 45th in 3rd down defense and forcing 6.2 punts a game.

The defense is getting some stops, the problem is, it's giving up a ridiculous number of long plays.

The run defense really wasn't bad Saturday. I know that everything counts but that 60 yard run was really well played until it wasn't. Should have been a loss. They had 120 yards otherwise.

Holding their starting RB to 100 on 20 carries isn't bad. And the real breakdowns came late when I think we tired and started blowing some tackles.

Front 7 needs to keep improving because the safeties are going to have to stay way back and prevent the easy 6 thru the air.

And some of our guys just have to figure out how to take better angles.

 

[Crusty]

You do realize that coaches get fired all the time for being bad at their job? The logic that coaches are always doing things right is silly. I am sure the ND DC is pretty knowledgable at FB. He was let go because he couldn't apply that knowledge into results.

And they are all more knowledgeable than you or I. It is so presumptuous for laymen fans to think they can watch a game and really know what is going on to the extent coaches do. Just ridiculous.

 

[SWC75]

The run defense really wasn't bad Saturday. I know that everything counts but that 60 yard run was really well played until it wasn't. Should have been a loss. They had 120 yards otherwise.

Holding their starting RB to 100 on 20 carries isn't bad. And the real breakdowns came late when I think we tired and started blowing some tackles.

Front 7 needs to keep improving because the safeties are going to have to stay way back and prevent the easy 6 thru the air.

And some of our guys just have to figure out how to take better angles.

Our problem isn't playing good defense. It's playing good defense on every play.

 

[GoSU96]

And they are all more knowledgeable than you or I. It is so presumptuous for laymen fans to think they can watch a game and really know what is going on to the extent coaches do. Just ridiculous.

That's why I think we can assess a program on a macro level, +/- trends, how it's doing relative to past performance and peers, but things like play calling, scheme, personnel decisions, time outs, punts, etc. nobody here is close to qualified to judge.

 

[djorange1989]

And they are all more knowledgeable than you or I. It is so presumptuous for laymen fans to think they can watch a game and really know what is going on to the extent coaches do. Just ridiculous.

Agreed and also ridiculous to jump on this staff 5 games in. Duke would have sh**canned Cutcliffe a long time ago if they listened to message board nut jobs

 

[SWC75]

We are not qualified to judge strategical decisions but we do it anyway because we are fans. We are going to talk about these things and this board exists for us to discuss what we see.

It's like going to the movies and thinking the writing, photography, costumes, sets, direction, editing or music could have been better or that they should have done something other than what they did. we are not qualified to do any of those jobs but we're not going to just go home and not think about what we saw or say what we are thinking.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

That's why I think we can assess a program on a macro level, +/- trends, how it's doing relative to past performance and peers, but things like play calling, scheme, personnel decisions, time outs, punts, etc. nobody here is close to qualified to judge.

A frozen caveman who has never seen a football in their life can tell that one defender covering three guys pre snap is generally not a good idea.

 

[Crusty]

A frozen caveman who has never seen a football in their life can tell that one defender covering three guys pre snap is generally not a good idea.

Brilliant.