Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency...

[A Clockwork Orange]

If you're looking to pick the team that will win it all this year, look no further than these four teams (with AdjO and AdjD in parentheses):

1. Wichita State (7/10)
   
2. Florida (9/9)
   
3. Villanova (10/13)
   
4. Louisville (14/6)

In the last ten years, no team has won the national championship without being in the top 20 of both adjusted offensive & defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy. He started tracking those two analytics during our 2003 national championship team.

The next group of teams close to that top 20 mark are these ones:

1. Kansas (5/31)
2. Tennessee (17/28)
3. Virginia (24/4)
4. Syracuse (26/15)
5. Arizona (36/1)
6. Oklahoma State (25/35)

The last 10 national champs looked like this:

'03: Syracuse (11/19)
'04: UConn (4/5)
'05: UNC (1/5)
'06: Florida (2/5)
'07: Florida (1/12)
'08: Kansas (2/1)
'09: UNC (1/4)
'10: Duke (1/4)
'11: UConn (16/14)
'12: UK (2/9)
'13: Louisville (4/3)

 

[690West]

great freaking stuff clockwork. Looking down Kenpom's rankings tells me that Duke,Creighton, and Michigan have absolutely zero chance to win a title if history holds.

 

[690West]

I also need someone to explain if the Off. and Def. rankings that KenPom establishes take into consideration SOS. I'm sure they do but want to make sure. If they do, then those numbers above would actually favor Wichita to win the whole damn thing.

 

[Cusefan0307]

If you're looking to pick the team that will win it all this year, look no further than these four teams (with AdjO and AdjD in parentheses):

1. Wichita State (7/10)
   
2. Florida (9/9)
   
3. Villanova (10/13)
   
4. Louisville (14/6)

In the last ten years, no team has won the national championship without being in the top 20 of both adjusted offensive & defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy. He started tracking those two analytics during our 2003 national championship team.

The next group of teams close to that top 20 mark are these ones:

1. Kansas (5/31)
2. Tennessee (17/28)
3. Virginia (24/4)
4. Syracuse (26/15)
5. Arizona (36/1)
6. Oklahoma State (25/35)

The last 10 national champs looked like this:

'03: Syracuse (11/19)
'04: UConn (4/5)
'05: UNC (1/5)
'06: Florida (2/5)
'07: Florida (1/12)
'08: Kansas (2/1)
'09: UNC (1/4)
'10: Duke (1/4)
'11: UConn (16/14)
'12: UK (2/9)
'13: Louisville (4/3)

One thing to keep in mind for teams in that second group, the farther you go along in conference and the ncaa tournament, the better your adjusted efficiencies become as you play and beat better teams. If someone in that second tier wins their conference tourney, and then makes a move in the NCAA Tourney their numbers will improve as they play better teams. I'm not saying the model isn't right, but teams outside that threshold's numbers get better as they win more games.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

One thing to keep in mind for teams in that second group, the farther you go along in conference and the ncaa tournament, the better your adjusted efficiencies become as you play and beat better teams. If someone in that second tier wins their conference tourney, and then makes a move in the NCAA Tourney their numbers will improve as they play better teams. I'm not saying the model isn't right, but teams outside that threshold's numbers get better as they win more games.

I'll be checking and updating through the conference tournaments, and each round of the NCAA's. With that said, at the end of conference tournaments these teams all had top 20 in both.

 

[Cheriehoop]

Wonder how our offensive efficiency was effected by Jerami's injury and if we would be a top 20 team when he's healthy? Just wondering..

 

[Knicks411]

I also need someone to explain if the Off. and Def. rankings that KenPom establishes take into consideration SOS. I'm sure they do but want to make sure. If they do, then those numbers above would actually favor Wichita to win the whole damn thing.

They are adjusted for opponent.

It's obviously a somewhat arbitrary marker, but we could get in the top 20 with a good showing this weekend.

Not surprised that most of the teams were in the top 10 in both. With also the obvious caveat that they include games that happened in the tournament, which of course the champion won.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

If you're looking to pick the team that will win it all this year, look no further than these four teams (with AdjO and AdjD in parentheses):

1. Wichita State (7/10)
   
2. Florida (9/9)
   
3. Villanova (10/13)
   
4. Louisville (14/6)

In the last ten years, no team has won the national championship without being in the top 20 of both adjusted offensive & defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy. He started tracking those two analytics during our 2003 national championship team.

The next group of teams close to that top 20 mark are these ones:

1. Kansas (5/31)
2. Tennessee (17/28)
3. Virginia (24/4)
4. Syracuse (26/15)
5. Arizona (36/1)
6. Oklahoma State (25/35)

The last 10 national champs looked like this:

'03: Syracuse (11/19)
'04: UConn (4/5)
'05: UNC (1/5)
'06: Florida (2/5)
'07: Florida (1/12)
'08: Kansas (2/1)
'09: UNC (1/4)
'10: Duke (1/4)
'11: UConn (16/14)
'12: UK (2/9)
'13: Louisville (4/3)

I just put together a list of all the teams that have made the Final Four through the last 10 years. Here it is:

From what I can tell it looks like out of 44 teams, only three teams have been outside the top 50 of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (two of those teams came from the '03 tourney). Only four teams have been outside the top 50 of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. So if you're looking to put together a final four, make sure your teams reside within the top 50 of both Adj O and Adj D. I'm going to try and cull some more data out of this, but if anyone wants to chime in they are more than welcome to!

There are some discrepancies (from the national champion info) from what I first posted, and what is in this chart. I'm assuming those discrepancies account for regular season/tournament stuff. Not really sure. It could be that I initially got this info from the Bleacher Report (bad move) and this info in the chart I took right from Ken Pom.

 

[690West]

They are adjusted for opponent.

It's obviously a somewhat arbitrary marker, but we could get in the top 20 with a good showing this weekend.

Not surprised that most of the teams were in the top 10 in both. With also the obvious caveat that they include games that happened in the tournament, which of course the champion won.

Ahh, great point

 

[Knicks411]

If there was any way to pull the rankings from right before the tournament started it might be a little more illustrative.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

If there was any way to pull the rankings from right before the tournament started it might be a little more illustrative.

Looking for that right now, can't seem to find any. It will be interesting to see how much they move after the conference tournaments.

 

[Millhouse]

nice post. hopefully our slump was so out of the ordinary that the 26 can have a * next to it. it took an unbelievable slump to get us down to 26

 

[Knicks411]

I know a few weeks ago, probably right after the first Duke game, we were 5th in offense. Believe after Nova we were first, but that was December.

 

[Millhouse]

also interesting that our 2003 run had a combined rank of 30, same as UConn who only seemed to get it together at the end. maybe SU was a little worse than i remember and uconn was better. quite a difference between those teams and some of the other teams that won

good news about this year is there aren't any teams with 1/2 type powerhouse rankings

 

[690West]

I'd love to look at the Vegas futures once the tourney is set and compare that to the Kenpom numbers above and see of any huge values exist. Efficient market theory will probably slap me in the face though. We'll see

 

[durhamcuse]

Wonder how our offensive efficiency was effected by Jerami's injury and if we would be a top 20 team when he's healthy? Just wondering..

Add to that the loss of Baye for a few games (and he was non-existent in the loss to BC). I think with a functional Grant and healthy Baye, our team is much better offensively and defensively.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

I'd love to look at the Vegas futures once the tourney is set and compare that to the Kenpom numbers above and see of any huge values exist. Efficient market theory will probably slap me in the face though. We'll see

It's interesting, I'm going through the teams that have been in the top 25 in both (hoping SU will get there after the tournament) and 76% currently have made it to at least the Sweet 16. Exactly 50% made it to the Elite 8. As Knicks 411 rightly notes, some of this is definitely skewed by how far they made it into the tournament/who they played.

I may just e-mail Pomeroy to see if he has these numbers right after conference tournaments for all of those years, to get a better idea.

 

[Knicks411]

I'd love to look at the Vegas futures once the tourney is set and compare that to the Kenpom numbers above and see of any huge values exist. Efficient market theory will probably slap me in the face though. We'll see

Yeah I'd be surprised if there were a lot. Big ones would probably be ones with injuries changing the current outlook of the team. So Pomeroy will probably overrate KU, and possibly underrate SU.

 

[HoustonCuse]

It's interesting, I'm going through the teams that have been in the top 25 in both (hoping SU will get there after the tournament) and 76% currently have made it to at least the Sweet 16. Exactly 50% made it to the Elite 8. As Knicks 411 rightly notes, some of this is definitely skewed by how far they made it into the tournament/who they played.

I may just e-mail Pomeroy to see if he has these numbers right after conference tournaments for all of those years, to get a better idea.

Yes this is important, because it is a self eating watermelon in some ways: Teams that won the NC have a good ranking. But the rankings we are looking at here were compiled after those teams, by definition, went on an outstanding 6 game run against great competition to actually win that NC. You are correct in looking for the pre-NCAA tourney kenpom numbers for this to mean anything.

 

[Dave85]

If you're looking to pick the team that will win it all this year, look no further than these four teams (with AdjO and AdjD in parentheses):

1. Wichita State (7/10)
   
2. Florida (9/9)
   
3. Villanova (10/13)
   
4. Louisville (14/6)

In the last ten years, no team has won the national championship without being in the top 20 of both adjusted offensive & defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy. He started tracking those two analytics during our 2003 national championship team.

The next group of teams close to that top 20 mark are these ones:

1. Kansas (5/31)
2. Tennessee (17/28)
3. Virginia (24/4)
4. Syracuse (26/15)
5. Arizona (36/1)
6. Oklahoma State (25/35)

The last 10 national champs looked like this:

'03: Syracuse (11/19)
'04: UConn (4/5)
'05: UNC (1/5)
'06: Florida (2/5)
'07: Florida (1/12)
'08: Kansas (2/1)
'09: UNC (1/4)
'10: Duke (1/4)
'11: UConn (16/14)
'12: UK (2/9)
'13: Louisville (4/3)

According to Pomeroy we lost to Villanova.

 

[Dave85]

It's interesting, I'm going through the teams that have been in the top 25 in both (hoping SU will get there after the tournament) and 76% currently have made it to at least the Sweet 16. Exactly 50% made it to the Elite 8. As Knicks 411 rightly notes, some of this is definitely skewed by how far they made it into the tournament/who they played.

I may just e-mail Pomeroy to see if he has these numbers right after conference tournaments for all of those years, to get a better idea.

All that matters is making it to the Sweet 16. At that point, any of the 16 teams could have four really good games. JB has claimed many times that there is a lot of parity in CBB today. All the polling and player ratings are more subjective than objective.

 

[BuffOrange]

also interesting that our 2003 run had a combined rank of 30, same as UConn who only seemed to get it together at the end. maybe SU was a little worse than i remember and uconn was better. quite a difference between those teams and some of the other teams that won

good news about this year is there aren't any teams with 1/2 type powerhouse rankings

The thing w/ that Uconn team is they didn't have any major injuries. And the unbalanced scheduled hurt them a little, but not that much - they played all the big boys at home and lost (us, L'ville, ND). The ND game in particular I remember - it was the last reg. season game and Ben Hansbrough who was killing them - fouled out w/ 6 min's left due to some home cooking. And they still lost at home. Unbelievable. Such a fluke outlier that team.

I'd love to look at the Vegas futures once the tourney is set and compare that to the Kenpom numbers above and see of any huge values exist. Efficient market theory will probably slap me in the face though. We'll see

Legendary CBB bettor Alan Boston has a conspiracy theory that the committee always pairs under/overvalued teams together. Pretty funny when Wichita & Pitt were matched up in the 1st round last yr as they were two teams of the underrated ilk.

 

[HOFCeluck]

All that matters is making it to the Sweet 16. At that point, any of the 16 teams could have four really good games. JB has claimed many times that there is a lot of parity in CBB today. All the polling and player ratings are more subjective than objective.

Saying that the sweet 16 and beyond is a crapshoot is such a Syracuse thing to say.

 

[Dave85]

Saying that the sweet 16 and beyond is a crapshoot is such a Syracuse thing to say.

I don't understand your comment or what you are implying.

Let me ask you something. At the highest level of play, and you have two teams of equal caliber, what do you think are the chances of winning for each team?

 

[Dave85]

I just put together a list of all the teams that have made the Final Four through the last 10 years. Here it is:

View attachment 8896

From what I can tell it looks like out of 44 teams, only three teams have been outside the top 50 of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (two of those teams came from the '03 tourney). Only four teams have been outside the top 50 of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. So if you're looking to put together a final four, make sure your teams reside within the top 50 of both Adj O and Adj D. I'm going to try and cull some more data out of this, but if anyone wants to chime in they are more than welcome to!

There are some discrepancies (from the national champion info) from what I first posted, and what is in this chart. I'm assuming those discrepancies account for regular season/tournament stuff. Not really sure. It could be that I initially got this info from the Bleacher Report (bad move) and this info in the chart I took right from Ken Pom.

AdjO - Adjusted offensive efficiency - An estimate of the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I defense.

AdjD - Adjusted defensive efficiency - An estimate of the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I offense.

Because we play 2-3 zone which creates a different tempo of play, do these measure apply? Maybe they are not accurate for the Orange.