Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency...

[mike32768]

Its obviously not full proof

Sorta like cheap liquor?

 

[BlackKnight76]

A great blog for this kind of stuff - http://wp.bracketscience.com/

 

[Dave85]

Not saying its entirely right or wrong, but last year for the first time I filled out my bracket using a combination of Kenpom, BMI, and my own equations with the advanced metrics and my bracket was in the 98.9% on ESPN. There is a reason schools use these advanced metrics though, and according to those advanced metrics, Indiana was actually expected to lose to Syracuse. Again, not saying these stats are god almighty but they definitely have some truth to them.

Just out of curiosity and fun what variables do you consider in your advanced metrics? If you are going to kill me after you tell me I don't want to know!

 

[Dave85]

You are thinking about it wrong. No model is going to make perfect predictions.

I don't think I was saying that but the opposite. It's like negative Murphy's law: If that is what you predict, something different will happen. I was making the point that there are too many hidden variables. But I will agree with you there are many times all you have are the #1 seeds in the final foul. But man, some of the intermediate games are impossible to predict!

 

[Dave85]

Good article on Orange statistical semantics:

http://www.syracuse.com/poliquin/in...ncluding_this_one_who_bleeds_orange_in_l.html

 

[Cusefannotindc]

I don't think I was saying that but the opposite. It's like negative Murphy's law: If that is what you predict, something different will happen. I was making the point that there are too many hidden variables. But I will agree with you there are many times all you have are the #1 seeds in the final foul. But man, some of the intermediate games are impossible to predict!

You are using predict in a different manner than others are here. Predict doesn't mean a perfect bracket, predictive models make probabilistic predictions. Team A is 70% to win, Team B 30%. If there are 4 games with odds like this, the favorites would only be expected to win 3 out of 4. 30% is still a big number, if I told you you had a 30% chance of getting cancer, you would still be pretty scared.

 

[Dave85]

You are using predict in a different manner than others are here. Predict doesn't mean a perfect bracket, predictive models make probabilistic predictions. Team A is 70% to win, Team B 30%. If there are 4 games with odds like this, the favorites would only be expected to win 3 out of 4. 30% is still a big number, if I told you you had a 30% chance of getting cancer, you would still be pretty scared.

4 out 3 people just don't understand statistics.

 

[mike32768]

4 out 3 people just don't understand statistics.

Is that an anti-semantic argument?

 

[Dave85]

Is that an anti-semantic argument?

It can't be I'm Jewish.