SWC75
Bored Historian
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the NCAA tournament start. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions. This is just one thing to look at. But I think it’s a big thing.
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK SIX
North Carolina beat #4 Gonzaga 103-90 = +35 points
Villanova lost to #1 Kansas 74-77 = +22 points
South Dakota State lost to #7 Nevada-Reno 68-72 = +15 points
Alabama-Birmingham lost to #8 Auburn 71-75 = +14 points
Memphis lost to #3 Tennessee 92-102 = +13 points
Western Michigan lost to #5 Michigan 62-70 = +13 points
Kansas beat #17 Villanova 77-74 = +12 points
Pennsylvania beat #17 Villanova 78-75 = +12 points
Bucknell lost to #15 Ohio State 71-73 = +9 points
Old Dominion beat #25 Syracuse 68-62 = +7 points
Southern Illinois lost to #14 Buffalo 65-73 = +4 points
Gonzaga lost to #12 North Carolina 90-103 = +1 point
Washington lost to #13 Virginia Tech 61-73 = +1 point
Butler lost to #25 Indiana 68-71 = -2 points
Saint Louis lost to #24 Houston 64-68 = -2 points
Cincinnati lost to #18 Mississippi State 59-70 = -3 points
Georgia lost to #20 Arizona State 74-76 = -4 points
Green Bay lost to #9 Michigan State 83-104 = -4 points
Louisiana State lost to #24 Houston 76-82 = -4 points
Charleston Southern lost to #23 Furman 69-77 = -5 points
Georgia State lost to #25 Kansas State 59-71 = -11 points
Northern Iowa lost to #22 Iowa 54-77 = -19 points
Northwestern (Louisiana) State lost to #11 Texas Tech 44-79= -20 points
Utah lost to #19 Kentucky 61-88 = -20 points
Savannah State lost to #16 Wisconsin 60-101 = -31 points
UNC Wilmington lost to #23 Furman 50-93 = -40 points
Comment: We are in the last stages of the pre-conference season and the Savannah States and UNC Wilmingtons will disappear from the list as conference rivals begin playing each other and things get serious. We are clinging to a spot in the Top 25 of this list, even if we will drop from the writer’s Top 25 again. Buffalo is still ranked #14, so we will have another 12 points just for playing them. That gets us to +30. Where will we be at the end of the game?
THE TOP 25
Duke +103 points
Michigan +103 points
Michigan State +79 points
North Carolina +62 points
Kansas +60 points
Marquette +60 points
Tennessee +46 points
Gonzaga +44 points
Auburn +42 points
Wisconsin +33 points
Louisville +31 points
Arizona State +30 points
Indiana +27 points
Furman +26 points
Oregon +26 points
Connecticut +25 points
New Mexico State +21 points
Tulsa +21 points
Villanova +21 points
Northwestern +19 points
Purdue +19 points
Buffalo +18 points
Dayton +18 points
Florida State +18 points
Seton Hall +18 points
Syracuse +18 points
The worst total so far is Tennessee Tech with -84 points
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK SIX
North Carolina beat #4 Gonzaga 103-90 = +35 points
Villanova lost to #1 Kansas 74-77 = +22 points
South Dakota State lost to #7 Nevada-Reno 68-72 = +15 points
Alabama-Birmingham lost to #8 Auburn 71-75 = +14 points
Memphis lost to #3 Tennessee 92-102 = +13 points
Western Michigan lost to #5 Michigan 62-70 = +13 points
Kansas beat #17 Villanova 77-74 = +12 points
Pennsylvania beat #17 Villanova 78-75 = +12 points
Bucknell lost to #15 Ohio State 71-73 = +9 points
Old Dominion beat #25 Syracuse 68-62 = +7 points
Southern Illinois lost to #14 Buffalo 65-73 = +4 points
Gonzaga lost to #12 North Carolina 90-103 = +1 point
Washington lost to #13 Virginia Tech 61-73 = +1 point
Butler lost to #25 Indiana 68-71 = -2 points
Saint Louis lost to #24 Houston 64-68 = -2 points
Cincinnati lost to #18 Mississippi State 59-70 = -3 points
Georgia lost to #20 Arizona State 74-76 = -4 points
Green Bay lost to #9 Michigan State 83-104 = -4 points
Louisiana State lost to #24 Houston 76-82 = -4 points
Charleston Southern lost to #23 Furman 69-77 = -5 points
Georgia State lost to #25 Kansas State 59-71 = -11 points
Northern Iowa lost to #22 Iowa 54-77 = -19 points
Northwestern (Louisiana) State lost to #11 Texas Tech 44-79= -20 points
Utah lost to #19 Kentucky 61-88 = -20 points
Savannah State lost to #16 Wisconsin 60-101 = -31 points
UNC Wilmington lost to #23 Furman 50-93 = -40 points
Comment: We are in the last stages of the pre-conference season and the Savannah States and UNC Wilmingtons will disappear from the list as conference rivals begin playing each other and things get serious. We are clinging to a spot in the Top 25 of this list, even if we will drop from the writer’s Top 25 again. Buffalo is still ranked #14, so we will have another 12 points just for playing them. That gets us to +30. Where will we be at the end of the game?
THE TOP 25
Duke +103 points
Michigan +103 points
Michigan State +79 points
North Carolina +62 points
Kansas +60 points
Marquette +60 points
Tennessee +46 points
Gonzaga +44 points
Auburn +42 points
Wisconsin +33 points
Louisville +31 points
Arizona State +30 points
Indiana +27 points
Furman +26 points
Oregon +26 points
Connecticut +25 points
New Mexico State +21 points
Tulsa +21 points
Villanova +21 points
Northwestern +19 points
Purdue +19 points
Buffalo +18 points
Dayton +18 points
Florida State +18 points
Seton Hall +18 points
Syracuse +18 points
The worst total so far is Tennessee Tech with -84 points
