SWC75
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the 4 team national championship playoff takes place. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions.
I’m going to do it using the procedure I started a couple years ago. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
THE BOWLS AND THE PLAYOFF
Louisiana State beat #4 Oklahoma 63-28 = +57 points
Texas beat #11 Utah 38-10 = +43 points
Louisiana State beat #3 Clemson 42-25 = +40 points
Washington beat #19 Boise State 38-7 = +38 points
Alabama beat #14 Michigan 35-16 = +31 points
Georgia beat #7 Baylor 26-14 = +31 points
Clemson beat #2 Ohio State 29-23 = +30 points
Iowa beat #22 Southern California 49-24 = +29 points
Penn State beat #17 Memphis 53-39 = +23 points
Minnesota beat #12 Auburn 31-24 = +21 points
Oregon beat #8 Wisconsin 28-27 = +19 points
Wisconsin lost to #6 Oregon 27-28 = +19 points
Ohio State lost to #3 Clemson 23-29 = +17 points
Florida beat #24 Virginia 36-28 = +10 points
Baylor lost to #5 Georgia 14-26 = +9 points
Virginia lost to #9 Florida 28-36 = +9 points
Clemson lost to #1 Louisiana State 25-42 = +8 points
Texas A&M beat #25 Oklahoma State 24-21 = +4 points
Memphis lost to #10 Penn State 39-53 = +2 points
Auburn lost to #18 Minnesota 24-31 = +1 point
Kansas State lost to #23 Navy 17-20 = 0 points
Michigan lost to #13 Alabama 16-35 = -6 points
UAB lost to #20 Appalachian State 17-31 = -8 points
Oklahoma lost to #1 Louisiana State 28-63 = -10 points
Iowa State lost to #15 Notre Dame 9-33 = -13 points
Southern California lost to #16 Iowa 24-49 = -15 points
Boston College lost to #21 Cincinnati 6-38 = -27 points
Comment: The cream really rose to the top in the post season. I’ve been keeping track of the leaders since 2013, although I didn’t use negative performances, (where the team did worse than projected against the ranked team) until 2017. In 2013 Florida State was atop this ranking with 214 points. In 2014 it was Alabama with 171, (although Ohio State with 110 points won the title). In 2015 Alabama led with 204 points. They also led in 2016 with 261, (but Clemson with only 56 points won the title). In 2017 Clemson won with +184, (but Alabama with +165 won the title). In 2018 Clemson led with +176. So LSU’s total of +251 this was the second best I have recorded and the best by far since I included negative points.
TOP 25
Louisiana State +251 points
Ohio State +189 points
Clemson +115 points
Wisconsin +108 points
Auburn +104 points
Georgia +99 points
Texas +80 points
Alabama +79 points
Washington +79 points
Oregon +71 points
Iowa +63 points
Michigan +62 points
Florida +58 points
Penn State +57 points
Notre Dame +51 points
Arizona State +47 points
Memphis +47 points
Minnesota +43 points
Texas Christian +42 points
Kansas State +41 points
Southern California +37 points
Virginia Tech +35 points
Iowa State +31 points
U of Miami +28 points
Baylor +26 points
Syracuse has -10 points
SU opponents: Liberty -20, Maryland has -83, Clemson +115, Western Michigan -27, Holy Cross none, North Carolina State -55 points, Pittsburgh +18, Florida State -21, Boston College -80, Duke -35, Louisville -3, Wake Forest -26
The worst was Rutgers with -115 points.
I’m going to do it using the procedure I started a couple years ago. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
THE BOWLS AND THE PLAYOFF
Louisiana State beat #4 Oklahoma 63-28 = +57 points
Texas beat #11 Utah 38-10 = +43 points
Louisiana State beat #3 Clemson 42-25 = +40 points
Washington beat #19 Boise State 38-7 = +38 points
Alabama beat #14 Michigan 35-16 = +31 points
Georgia beat #7 Baylor 26-14 = +31 points
Clemson beat #2 Ohio State 29-23 = +30 points
Iowa beat #22 Southern California 49-24 = +29 points
Penn State beat #17 Memphis 53-39 = +23 points
Minnesota beat #12 Auburn 31-24 = +21 points
Oregon beat #8 Wisconsin 28-27 = +19 points
Wisconsin lost to #6 Oregon 27-28 = +19 points
Ohio State lost to #3 Clemson 23-29 = +17 points
Florida beat #24 Virginia 36-28 = +10 points
Baylor lost to #5 Georgia 14-26 = +9 points
Virginia lost to #9 Florida 28-36 = +9 points
Clemson lost to #1 Louisiana State 25-42 = +8 points
Texas A&M beat #25 Oklahoma State 24-21 = +4 points
Memphis lost to #10 Penn State 39-53 = +2 points
Auburn lost to #18 Minnesota 24-31 = +1 point
Kansas State lost to #23 Navy 17-20 = 0 points
Michigan lost to #13 Alabama 16-35 = -6 points
UAB lost to #20 Appalachian State 17-31 = -8 points
Oklahoma lost to #1 Louisiana State 28-63 = -10 points
Iowa State lost to #15 Notre Dame 9-33 = -13 points
Southern California lost to #16 Iowa 24-49 = -15 points
Boston College lost to #21 Cincinnati 6-38 = -27 points
Comment: The cream really rose to the top in the post season. I’ve been keeping track of the leaders since 2013, although I didn’t use negative performances, (where the team did worse than projected against the ranked team) until 2017. In 2013 Florida State was atop this ranking with 214 points. In 2014 it was Alabama with 171, (although Ohio State with 110 points won the title). In 2015 Alabama led with 204 points. They also led in 2016 with 261, (but Clemson with only 56 points won the title). In 2017 Clemson won with +184, (but Alabama with +165 won the title). In 2018 Clemson led with +176. So LSU’s total of +251 this was the second best I have recorded and the best by far since I included negative points.
TOP 25
Louisiana State +251 points
Ohio State +189 points
Clemson +115 points
Wisconsin +108 points
Auburn +104 points
Georgia +99 points
Texas +80 points
Alabama +79 points
Washington +79 points
Oregon +71 points
Iowa +63 points
Michigan +62 points
Florida +58 points
Penn State +57 points
Notre Dame +51 points
Arizona State +47 points
Memphis +47 points
Minnesota +43 points
Texas Christian +42 points
Kansas State +41 points
Southern California +37 points
Virginia Tech +35 points
Iowa State +31 points
U of Miami +28 points
Baylor +26 points
Syracuse has -10 points
SU opponents: Liberty -20, Maryland has -83, Clemson +115, Western Michigan -27, Holy Cross none, North Carolina State -55 points, Pittsburgh +18, Florida State -21, Boston College -80, Duke -35, Louisville -3, Wake Forest -26
The worst was Rutgers with -115 points.
