SWC75
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We often hear teams being evaluated at the end of the season by how they did “against ranked teams”. A couple of years ago I came up with a simple system for evaluating this, one with an acknowledged flaw but which nonetheless produced interesting results so I’ll do it again this year.
The system is very simple. First I hand out points to teams based on the ranking of their opponent. If you play the #1 ranked team, you get 25 points for playing such a powerful team. You get 24 points for playing the #2 team, 23 for playing the #3 team, etc. I’ll call them schedule points. Here’s a chart to make it easy:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
That’s step one. Now we play the games and see how these teams actually do on the field. What cued me into this is that most games will be won or lost by 25 points or less, so the points involved are comparable. You just compare the point differential to the points teams have gotten for playing a ranked opponent. If they beat the ranked opponent, their points will grow by the margin of victory. If they lose, you subtract the margin of victory from the schedule points. If that reduces them to zero or less, they get zero points. I’m not going to deal with minus points, just add up the positive points earned, or else my rankings would be cluttered up with a lot of inferior teams who were below the Mendoza line because they’d gotten blown out by their ranked opponents. If you play the #1 team and lose by 21 points, you’ll get 4 points: 25 schedule points minus the 21 points you lost by. If you play the #10 team and lose by 13 points, you’ll get three points. If you play the #15 team and lose by 14 points, you’ll get nothing, (11-14 = 0 in this system).
I’ll record the points earned each week and how the teams got them and add them up over the course of the season. That will show us how each team did “against ranked teams”. Like all cumulative standings, they will sort themselves out as the season goes on and come more and more into focus. Later listings will be more meaningful than early ones as more and more teams get through the meat of their schedules. The cumulative listing should I think be less a ranking of teams than a statistic you look at in determining where to rank the teams.
WEEK FOURTEEN
Michigan State beat #4 Iowa 16-13 22 + 3 = 25 points
Stanford beat #20 Southern California 41-22 6 + 19 = 25 points
Clemson beat #10 North Carolina 45-37 16 + 8 = 24 points
Alabama beat #18 Florida 29-15 8 + 14 = 22 points
Texas beat #12 Baylor 23-17 14 + 6 = 20 points
Iowa lost to #5 Michigan State 13-16 22 -3 = 19 points
North Carolina lost to #1 Clemson 37-45 25 – 8 = 17 points
Houston beat #22 Temple 24-13 4 + 11 = 15 points
Florida lost to #2 Alabama 15-29 24 - 14 = 10 points
Comment: There weren't many games but all of them mattered.
SEASON TOTALS
Alabama 204 points
Oklahoma 122 points
Mississippi 113 points
Stanford 106 points
Michigan 101 points
Michigan State 91 points
UCLA 87 points
Florida 74 points
Washington 69 points
Louisiana State 68 points
Clemson 66 points
Iowa 66 points
Southern California 66 points
Oregon 61 points
Utah 61 points
Notre Dame 56 points
Florida State 54 points
Arkansas 53 points
Houston 52 points
Minnesota 50 points
Texas A&M 50 points
Ohio State 45 points
Oklahoma State 44 points
Texas Christian 44 points
Texas 43 points
Comments: The above is the top 25, based on their performance against ranked teams. By that measure, Alabama and Oklahoma are clearly better than either #1 tanked Clemson of Big Ten champion Michigan State. Clemson actually ahs the lowest point score against ranked teams of the four playoff teams. Defending national champion Ohio State lost that big game to the Spartans and they wound up with 59 points. Even if North Carolina had gotten the ball after that onside kick, tied the game and won in overtime, they would have come anywhere near Iowa's 66 points or Stanford's 106 points so there would have been a strong argument for leaving them out. The controversial offside call spared us a greater controversy.
Others:
Navy 38 points
Temple 37 points
Arizona State 34 points
Baylor 34 points
Georgia Tech 34 points
Nebraska 34 points
Brigham Young 32 points
Indiana 32 points
Auburn 31 points
Utah State 31 points
Arizona 29 points
North Carolina 27 points
Tennessee 27 points
Boston College 26 points
Memphis 26 points
Vanderbilt 26 points
Louisville 25 points
Northern Illinois 25 points
South Carolina 25 points
South Florida 25 points
Purdue 23 points
Syracuse 23 points
Northwestern 22 points
Duke 20 points
Kansas State 20 points
Texas Tech 20 points
California 17 points
U of Miami 16 points
Rutgers 15 points
Western Michigan 15 points
Iowa State 14 points
Ohio State 14 points
Virginia Tech 14 points
Wake Forest 14 points
Jacksonville State 13 points
Kansas State 13 points
Florida Atlantic 12 points
Toledo 12 points
Connecticut 11 point
Mississippi State 10 points
Virginia 10 points
Kentucky 9 points
North Carolina State 9 points
Pittsburgh 9 points
Air Force 7 points
Iowa State 6 points
Wisconsin 6 points
Kansas 5 points
Maryland 5 points
Ball State 4 points
Central Michigan 4 points
Penn State 4 points
Southern Methodist 4 points
Memphis 1 point
The system is very simple. First I hand out points to teams based on the ranking of their opponent. If you play the #1 ranked team, you get 25 points for playing such a powerful team. You get 24 points for playing the #2 team, 23 for playing the #3 team, etc. I’ll call them schedule points. Here’s a chart to make it easy:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
That’s step one. Now we play the games and see how these teams actually do on the field. What cued me into this is that most games will be won or lost by 25 points or less, so the points involved are comparable. You just compare the point differential to the points teams have gotten for playing a ranked opponent. If they beat the ranked opponent, their points will grow by the margin of victory. If they lose, you subtract the margin of victory from the schedule points. If that reduces them to zero or less, they get zero points. I’m not going to deal with minus points, just add up the positive points earned, or else my rankings would be cluttered up with a lot of inferior teams who were below the Mendoza line because they’d gotten blown out by their ranked opponents. If you play the #1 team and lose by 21 points, you’ll get 4 points: 25 schedule points minus the 21 points you lost by. If you play the #10 team and lose by 13 points, you’ll get three points. If you play the #15 team and lose by 14 points, you’ll get nothing, (11-14 = 0 in this system).
I’ll record the points earned each week and how the teams got them and add them up over the course of the season. That will show us how each team did “against ranked teams”. Like all cumulative standings, they will sort themselves out as the season goes on and come more and more into focus. Later listings will be more meaningful than early ones as more and more teams get through the meat of their schedules. The cumulative listing should I think be less a ranking of teams than a statistic you look at in determining where to rank the teams.
WEEK FOURTEEN
Michigan State beat #4 Iowa 16-13 22 + 3 = 25 points
Stanford beat #20 Southern California 41-22 6 + 19 = 25 points
Clemson beat #10 North Carolina 45-37 16 + 8 = 24 points
Alabama beat #18 Florida 29-15 8 + 14 = 22 points
Texas beat #12 Baylor 23-17 14 + 6 = 20 points
Iowa lost to #5 Michigan State 13-16 22 -3 = 19 points
North Carolina lost to #1 Clemson 37-45 25 – 8 = 17 points
Houston beat #22 Temple 24-13 4 + 11 = 15 points
Florida lost to #2 Alabama 15-29 24 - 14 = 10 points
Comment: There weren't many games but all of them mattered.
SEASON TOTALS
Alabama 204 points
Oklahoma 122 points
Mississippi 113 points
Stanford 106 points
Michigan 101 points
Michigan State 91 points
UCLA 87 points
Florida 74 points
Washington 69 points
Louisiana State 68 points
Clemson 66 points
Iowa 66 points
Southern California 66 points
Oregon 61 points
Utah 61 points
Notre Dame 56 points
Florida State 54 points
Arkansas 53 points
Houston 52 points
Minnesota 50 points
Texas A&M 50 points
Ohio State 45 points
Oklahoma State 44 points
Texas Christian 44 points
Texas 43 points
Comments: The above is the top 25, based on their performance against ranked teams. By that measure, Alabama and Oklahoma are clearly better than either #1 tanked Clemson of Big Ten champion Michigan State. Clemson actually ahs the lowest point score against ranked teams of the four playoff teams. Defending national champion Ohio State lost that big game to the Spartans and they wound up with 59 points. Even if North Carolina had gotten the ball after that onside kick, tied the game and won in overtime, they would have come anywhere near Iowa's 66 points or Stanford's 106 points so there would have been a strong argument for leaving them out. The controversial offside call spared us a greater controversy.
Others:
Navy 38 points
Temple 37 points
Arizona State 34 points
Baylor 34 points
Georgia Tech 34 points
Nebraska 34 points
Brigham Young 32 points
Indiana 32 points
Auburn 31 points
Utah State 31 points
Arizona 29 points
North Carolina 27 points
Tennessee 27 points
Boston College 26 points
Memphis 26 points
Vanderbilt 26 points
Louisville 25 points
Northern Illinois 25 points
South Carolina 25 points
South Florida 25 points
Purdue 23 points
Syracuse 23 points
Northwestern 22 points
Duke 20 points
Kansas State 20 points
Texas Tech 20 points
California 17 points
U of Miami 16 points
Rutgers 15 points
Western Michigan 15 points
Iowa State 14 points
Ohio State 14 points
Virginia Tech 14 points
Wake Forest 14 points
Jacksonville State 13 points
Kansas State 13 points
Florida Atlantic 12 points
Toledo 12 points
Connecticut 11 point
Mississippi State 10 points
Virginia 10 points
Kentucky 9 points
North Carolina State 9 points
Pittsburgh 9 points
Air Force 7 points
Iowa State 6 points
Wisconsin 6 points
Kansas 5 points
Maryland 5 points
Ball State 4 points
Central Michigan 4 points
Penn State 4 points
Southern Methodist 4 points
Memphis 1 point
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