Alibi Time

[TexanMark]

Okay yes we are 2-0...but where do you think we stand now? After the injuries, the lack of execution...I originally thought 7 or 8 wins. Now not so much.

If the Football God offered me up 7-5 and some Beef O'Brady right now...I would sign up.

My revised Predictions:

at USC Loss 2-1 (we lose by 2-3 TDs as they expose our holes)
TOLEDO Loss 2-2 (Close Loss, coming off West Coast Trip)
RUTGIRLS Win 3-2 (Team's back against the wall and they respond, Shady is still the Biotch)
at Tulane Win 4-2 (Fun times in NOLA)
OFF
WVU Loss 4-3 (We lose by 2 TDs)
at Louisville Win 5-3 (they look more screwed up than us, close win)
at UConn Loss 5-4 (until we prove we can beat them..this is a los to me)
USF Loss 5-5 (too many USF athletes but Daniels buffoonery makes it close)
CINCY Win 6-5 (Close game but SU responds with a key victory)
at Pitt Loss 6-6 (in the snow)

So 3-4 in Conference and 3-2 OOC...I would feel a lot better if we were playing Akron instead of Toledo. A 6-6 record puts us on the edge for a bowl...I think we get it and end up in St. Pete.

 

[SmilinBob]

No clue. The teams we saw this past weekend could change dramatically or a little by the time SU plays them. Injuries, some young kids stepping up and playing well could change those teams along with SU. I really believe people under estimate the ability of players learning and improving as the season progresses and also on the flip side being beat up and not being as sharp as they were earlier in the season.

One other thing I'd like to mention is that it was Wakes and RI's first game so Marrone and staff didn't have a tape to look at as both teams changed their systems for the SU game.

Right now I think we have a solid idea what USC is going to give SU health, system and player wise.

Does the win vs RI count for the total needed for a bowl game?

 

[690West]

Does the win vs RI count for the total needed for a bowl game?

Yes.

 

[SmilinBob]

Yes.

Thanks!

 

[dollarbill44]

I don't know. Each game is a different animal for this team. I will be happy with 6-6 or better.

 

[upperdeck]

I think that if you just looked at how the other teams were playing our chances of getting to 9-10 wins has gone way up.. When you look at how we are playing the chances go down.. I still think 7-8 is the number. But you have to beat toledo/Tulane.. The fact that OSU is an underdog to Miami that has no players left does make you wonder about Toledo a bit. If we let them stay around like RI we are in trouble.

even the USC game is much more winnable now. Had both team been playing as expected we had less of a chance than we do now with both teams playing poorly..

We played a better PSU team with less talent and played to stay in the game.. I dont think he will feel the same about this game. Its the show case game in year 3 . The question is does getting blown out by throwing caution to the wind have a bigger effect on the Toledo game that just putting on a good show and keeping it close..

 

[rrlbees]

6 wins is a big step backwards. We've only played 1 1/2 quarters of football but I still think we get to 8 wins with 7 the minimal.

 

[TexanMark]

6 wins is a big step backwards. We've only played 1 1/2 quarters of football but I still think we get to 8 wins with 7 the minimal.

I see lots of players out for much of the season...we were young on the defense pre-season and now we are a young team on defense with many 2nd stringers...no way we win 8 games.

 

[rrlbees]

I see lots of players out for much of the season...we were young on the defense pre-season and now we are a young team on defense with many 2nd stringers...no way we win 8 games.

Injuries are part of the game and happen to every team.

 

[Cadillac]

Nope. Anywhere from 1st to 5th place finish in this conference.

Much of the BE is going to have to rely on true freshman in key spots or new coaches as conference play picks up.

We have the best game day staff in the BE, QB is at worst in the top half of the conference, WRs and TEs can catch, can't get a read on the D because we've only seen them against the read option.

I like USF and WV but not sold on Holgy, let's see how he deals with issues week to week.

 

[Fjoinkay]

Nope. Anywhere from 1st to 5th place finish in this conference.

Much of the BE is going to have to rely on true freshman in key spots or new coaches as conference play picks up.

We have the best game day staff in the BE, QB is at worst in the top half of the conference, WRs and TEs can catch, can't get a read on the D because we've only seen them against the read option.

I like USF and WV but not sold on Holgy, let's see how he deals with issues week to week.

I agree about the staff being great on game day, and it starts during game week. I think HCDM is brilliant with game planning and preparing the team to play. But one exception I think is the opening game when he has no current year film on the other team, and he has openly said as much. This is an obstacle for every coach, but it affects some more than others.

I'm glad we are past that. Rhody is a well coached team. They play fast. They tackle very well. And they have the kind of QB that gives our defense fits. On top of that it was their first game of the season and they were focused, and they had 2011 film on our team when we had none on them.

 

[Cadillac]

I agree about the staff being great on game day, and it starts during game week. I think HCDM is brilliant with game planning and preparing the team to play. But one exception I think is the opening game when he has no current year film on the other team, and he has openly said as much. This is an obstacle for every coach, but it affects some more than others.

I'm glad we are past that. Rhody is a well coached team. They play fast. They tackle very well. And they have the kind of QB that gives our defense fits. On top of that it was their first game of the season and they were focused, and they had 2011 film on our team when we had none on them.

Yup. We have issues but they pale to other teams in the BE.

Bridgewater and Huggins are at some point, probably soon, going to be asked to save their teams' seasons.

UConn has nothing at QB.

Pitt lost a lot of players and has a lot of square pegs for what their new guy wants to do.

Our staff was the difference in a lot of wins last year.

 

[jr4750]

Anyone consider the fact that Toledo will be overlooking us... I know how that sounds but they have a big game against Boise followed after us by the opening game in their conference... They will be battle tested and weary as well after back to back games against two top 20 teams...

 

[JoeSU]

Okay yes we are 2-0...but where do you think we stand now? After the injuries, the lack of execution...I originally thought 7 or 8 wins. Now not so much.

If the Football God offered me up 7-5 and some Beef O'Brady right now...I would sign up.

My revised Predictions:

at USC Loss 2-1 (we lose by 2-3 TDs as they expose our holes)
TOLEDO Loss 2-2 (Close Loss, coming off West Coast Trip)
RUTGIRLS Win 3-2 (Team's back against the wall and they respond, Shady is still the Biotch)
at Tulane Win 4-2 (Fun times in NOLA)
OFF
WVU Loss 4-3 (We lose by 2 TDs)
at Louisville Win 5-3 (they look more screwed up than us, close win)
at UConn Loss 5-4 (until we prove we can beat them..this is a los to me)
USF Loss 5-5 (too many USF athletes but Daniels buffoonery makes it close)
CINCY Win 6-5 (Close game but SU responds with a key victory)
at Pitt Loss 6-6 (in the snow)

So 3-4 in Conference and 3-2 OOC...I would feel a lot better if we were playing Akron instead of Toledo. A 6-6 record puts us on the edge for a bowl...I think we get it and end up in St. Pete.

I would agree if we were to hypothetically play the entire season tomorrow. But so much can change over the course of a season. We have a lot of young players with little or no D-1 experience, for whom the development curve is going to be steep as the season progresses. Injuries to key players are also going to be a factor for us as well as our opponents; right now, how long Jones sits is going to have a big impact on our defense. Another' less tangible factor is momentum. Wake and Rutgers last season were good examples of teams caught in a downward slide.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

My initial projection was 6 and 6. I thought we'd run the ball better, but I didn't think we'd pass the ball as well as we have. I really am a believer in the Nassib-Lemon-Chew triumvirate. The defense has been better than I thought.

I'm really worried about the offensive line. I will hold at 6 and 6 with a bowl.

 

[billsin01]

6 wins is a big step backwards. We've only played 1 1/2 quarters of football but I still think we get to 8 wins with 7 the minimal.

6 wins is a big step backward how? (legit question, not a rhetorical one) From the 8 last year? I often think people -- national media, probably the coaches as well and certainly the vast majority of fans -- tend to view rebuilding as a linear process. As in, we won X last year, we need to win at least x+1 this year, etc.

I just don't think it works that way for a variety of reasons:
-- You can play pretty well and lose games, you can play poorly and win them. Adds a bit of randomness to your final record
-- Schedules can change drastically from year to year despite featuring many of the same programs
-- The difficulty going from 4 wins to 8, IMO, is less than the difficulty of going from 8 to 10. I guess that's subjective on my part, but I just think making the leap from decent bowl team to legit conference title contender/BCS participant is a really big one.

As for this team, I am really concerned about the OL and think they have a lot to prove there. I also still think they are vulnerable against a team that can line up and really pound the ball at them (even though the secondary/pass rush has drawn much of the criticism thus far). I would guess 6 wins, but would point out that they don't really have any guaranteed wins on the sched and there really aren't many games in which I expect them to have no chance of winning (though USC looks like a huge mountain to climb).

 

[IthacaBarrel]

6 wins is a big step backward how? (legit question, not a rhetorical one) From the 8 last year? I often think people -- national media, probably the coaches as well and certainly the vast majority of fans -- tend to view rebuilding as a linear process. As in, we won X last year, we need to win at least x+1 this year, etc.

I just don't think it works that way for a variety of reasons:
-- You can play pretty well and lose games, you can play poorly and win them. Adds a bit of randomness to your final record
-- Schedules can change drastically from year to year despite featuring many of the same programs
-- The difficulty going from 4 wins to 8, IMO, is less than the difficulty of going from 8 to 10. I guess that's subjective on my part, but I just think making the leap from decent bowl team to legit conference title contender/BCS participant is a really big one.

As for this team, I am really concerned about the OL and think they have a lot to prove there. I also still think they are vulnerable against a team that can line up and really pound the ball at them (even though the secondary/pass rush has drawn much of the criticism thus far). I would guess 6 wins, but would point out that they don't really have any guaranteed wins on the sched and there really aren't many games in which I expect them to have no chance of winning (though USC looks like a huge mountain to climb).

Agree, and for team that recruits a lot of players who may have the athleticism to play at this level but not yet the football prowess a team like Syracuse that doesn't have a lot of good seniors will struggle IMO, A lot of these young kids have a ways to go and it shows. I still don't see many if any Marrone kids at the skill positions, what does that tell you? Either we aren't recruiting well enough or his kids aren't quite ready.

 

[billsin01]

Agree, and for team that recruits a lot of players who may have the athleticism to play at this level but not yet the football prowess a team like Syracuse that doesn't have a lot of good seniors will struggle IMO, A lot of these young kids have a ways to go and it shows. I still don't see many if any Marrone kids at the skill positions, what does that tell you? Either we aren't recruiting well enough or his kids aren't quite ready.

Absolutely, I should have made this point as well. So many people on here post about when we are going to finally start signing 4 and 5-star kids (something we'd all love), but ultimately we just need to get this pipeline going well enough that we can redshirt the vast majority of our class and lean on upperclassmen who've time to grow and develop physically, in terms of technique and in terms of simply understanding the game in a broader sense.

 

[rrlbees]

6 wins is a big step backward how? (legit question, not a rhetorical one) From the 8 last year? I often think people -- national media, probably the coaches as well and certainly the vast majority of fans -- tend to view rebuilding as a linear process. As in, we won X last year, we need to win at least x+1 this year, etc.

I just don't think it works that way for a variety of reasons:
-- You can play pretty well and lose games, you can play poorly and win them. Adds a bit of randomness to your final record
-- Schedules can change drastically from year to year despite featuring many of the same programs
-- The difficulty going from 4 wins to 8, IMO, is less than the difficulty of going from 8 to 10. I guess that's subjective on my part, but I just think making the leap from decent bowl team to legit conference title contender/BCS participant is a really big one.

As for this team, I am really concerned about the OL and think they have a lot to prove there. I also still think they are vulnerable against a team that can line up and really pound the ball at them (even though the secondary/pass rush has drawn much of the criticism thus far). I would guess 6 wins, but would point out that they don't really have any guaranteed wins on the sched and there really aren't many games in which I expect them to have no chance of winning (though USC looks like a huge mountain to climb).

Defense was going to take a step back but IMO, the offense was going to take the same step forward. Also, another year for a lot of players in Marrones system. Also, another year of growth for Marrone as a HC. BTW, the OL with the exdeption of Macky is the same with another year of growth and S&C. I do agree that going from 4 to 8 is easier than 8 to 10. We should be a better team this year.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Absolutely, I should have made this point as well. So many people on here post about when we are going to finally start signing 4 and 5-star kids (something we'd all love), but ultimately we just need to get this pipeline going well enough that we can redshirt the vast majority of our class and lean on upperclassmen who've time to grow and develop physically, in terms of technique and in terms of simply understanding the game in a broader sense.

It's the Randy Edsall style of recruiting, it may not be pretty but if you are condifent in the staffs ability to teach the game you can get away with it in the Big East. In addition, when you have a team with a lot of upperclassmen, you can be pretty damn competitive. One thing about Edsall, for a guy that couldn't recruit at UCONN, he sure seemed to send his fair share of kids to the NFL.

Like I said, it may not thrill the masses looking for 4 stars but it may be all we can do at this point. Rutgers has a lot of talent other than qb and I think with a good coach they could win the Big East going away, but Schiano just stinks

 

[rrlbees]

I still don't see many if any Marrone kids at the skill positions, what does that tell you? Either we aren't recruiting well enough or his kids aren't quite ready.

That also concerns me.

 

[billsin01]

Defense was going to take a step back but IMO, the offense was going to take the same step forward. Also, another year for a lot of players in Marrones system. Also, another year of growth for Marrone as a HC. BTW, the OL with the exdeption of Macky is the same with another year of growth and S&C. I do agree that going from 4 to 8 is easier than 8 to 10. We should be a better team this year.

Yeah, I don't really disagree. I think if the OL was simply playing significantly better we'd all actually feel pretty good about this team. Hopefully that happens. I would point out, though, that we also went from two IAAs and a terrible MAC team (Akron), to 1 IAA, two pretty credible mid-majors in Tulane and Toledo. I don't know. I don't entirely disagree, but I don't think I'd be seriously worried about the direction of the program if we won 6 vs. 8.

 

[Millhouse]

That also concerns me.

should bailey take a seat? or walter payton award winner nassib? chew?

we'll see his recruits soon enough.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

That also concerns me.

Personally, I don't think Marrone has recruited well in this area at all. I don't see much here that he has recruited yet. West hasn't done anything yet, NO TE to speak of and PTG has like 4 touches.. Hopefully his NYC kids can come on with 2 years in the program..

 

[IthacaBarrel]

should bailey take a seat? or walter payton award winner nassib? chew?

we'll see his recruits soon enough.

You would think ONE kid may have stepped up is my point although it gets back to many of these raw NYC kids will need time