Alignment as it stands today and some speculation

[HtownOrange]

With today's defection of Maryland to the B1G and Rutger's presumed defection tomorrow, the power conferences look like this:

PAC 12 12 teams
Big 12 10 teams
B1G 14 teams
SEC 14 teams
ACC 13 teams

This makes me wonder if the PAC 12 will react and make a renewed attempt at Texas and 1 or 3 more. I wonder this because I believe that if they do not expand, they are likely hemmed into the 12 they have or to lowering their standards for UNLV, New Mexico, Boise State, Colorado State, with and even more distant chance for AFA (military) and BYU (religion). I believe the Big 12 will expand if the PAC does not, with a very slim chance of the ACC/SEC/B1G raiding the Big 12 first.

As for teams likely targeted by each conference, based on prior expansion goals/objectives and the present conditions, this is what I presume each conference is considering:

Pac 12: Texas and Oklahoma with willingness to accept TTech, OSU, but a preference for Kansas and Iowa State, with KSU only if necessary. Texas and OU for obvious reasons, Kansas and ISU are AAU research universities. TTech, OSU and KState are fillers only.

B1G: ND, Syracuse, Pitt, UVA, UNC, Duke (if necessary to secure UNC), GATech, Kansas, Mizzou, Texas, OU if necessary. NOTE: OU has declared that they are not tied to OSU if it is necessary to separate, they prefer to stay together. Texas and TTech are not tied together, but a preference exists.

SEC: Texas (pipe dream), OU, FSU, Clemson, UNC, NCState, VPI with outside consideration of Louisville and Cincy.

ACC: Louisville, Cincy, UConn, Texas, OU, and ND-all in. The ACC is the most fluid due to the potential of a raid by the SEC, B1G, and Big 12, and may need to lower the academic standards to secure teams they want/need.

Big 12: FSU, Clemson, GATech, Miami, VPI, UNC, Pitt (they were considered before Pitt jumped to the ACC), Louisville, Cincy, BYU, possibly Syracuse and UConn (if the Big 12 goes the norther route - Pitt/Louisville/Cincy).

What I hope is that the PAC takes four from the Big 12, without Texas, the Big 12 dries up, the TV deal falls through and the GOR becomes moot, especially if the B1G takes Kansas and maybe one more. This leaves the ACC as the fourth power conference and we can take up to three teams to get to 16 (two if we can convince ND to go all in).

Essentially, if the goal is 16 teams in the power conferences, there is a strong likelihood of 4 power conferences. If everyone is happy with 14 teams, 5 power conferences are necessary for voting in BCS/Playoff football. If there are to be four conferences, I want the Big 12 destroyed, with ACC survival.

If the ACC is destroyed, then I would be happy in any power conference with preferences in this order: B1G, PAC, SEC, Big 12.

 

[KingOtis]

Texas doesn't want to join the SEC and the Pac-12 doesn't want Texas. The SEC is too competitive and Texas wants to be the big fish. The Pac-12 won't allow the LHN. They won't even let Texas run its own website.

 

[HtownOrange]

Texas wants the PAC but wants their LHN, which is not yet profitable. However, if Texas works a deal with the PAC or gives up the LHN, no more road blocks. I agree that Texas wants to be the big fish, but if they are to be a power conference, they will have to either expand or join one, ala, no more big fish, but one a several big fish.

OU may be the linchpin in that their academics are on par with Nebraska and the B1G could take them and another school. OkieDokie State is NOT joined at the hip, as clarified by the state governing board. They want to save both schools but will save OU. The PAC has already agreed to Texas, OU, TTech and OSU, so those are the most likely four if the PAC expands. Alternatively, the PAC or B1G could move on Kansas and force the issue with Texas/OU. Texas also flirted with the B1G, so Texas/OU is a third possibility, especially now that the B1G can "only" take two teams (to max out at 16).

For the ACC's sake, I want the Big 12 to get raided again.

 

[KingOtis]

Texas burned their bridges with the Pac-12. I could see the Pac-12 taking Oklahoma, OSU, Kansas and K-State. It would be great if they make the next move, before the Big 12 can make a run at Florida St. and Clemson. I think Texas will eventually wind up in the Big 10 or a merged Big 12/ACC.

However, if ND remains independent, I could see Texas going that route.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

PAC 12 12 teams
Big 12 10 teams
B1G 14 teams
SEC 14 teams
ACC 13 teams

You know what I've learned in all of this? The PAC 12 is the only conference that can count.

 

[IthacaMatt]

With today's defection of Maryland to the B1G and Rutger's presumed defection tomorrow, the power conferences look like this:

PAC 12 12 teams
Big 12 10 teams
B1G 14 teams
SEC 14 teams
ACC 13 teams

This makes me wonder if the PAC 12 will react and make a renewed attempt at Texas and 1 or 3 more. I wonder this because I believe that if they do not expand, they are likely hemmed into the 12 they have or to lowering their standards for UNLV, New Mexico, Boise State, Colorado State, with and even more distant chance for AFA (military) and BYU (religion). I believe the Big 12 will expand if the PAC does not, with a very slim chance of the ACC/SEC/B1G raiding the Big 12 first.

As for teams likely targeted by each conference, based on prior expansion goals/objectives and the present conditions, this is what I presume each conference is considering:

Pac 12: Texas and Oklahoma with willingness to accept TTech, OSU, but a preference for Kansas and Iowa State, with KSU only if necessary. Texas and OU for obvious reasons, Kansas and ISU are AAU research universities. TTech, OSU and KState are fillers only.

B1G: ND, Syracuse, Pitt, UVA, UNC, Duke (if necessary to secure UNC), GATech, Kansas, Mizzou, Texas, OU if necessary. NOTE: OU has declared that they are not tied to OSU if it is necessary to separate, they prefer to stay together. Texas and TTech are not tied together, but a preference exists.

SEC: Texas (pipe dream), OU, FSU, Clemson, UNC, NCState, VPI with outside consideration of Louisville and Cincy.

ACC: Louisville, Cincy, UConn, Texas, OU, and ND-all in. The ACC is the most fluid due to the potential of a raid by the SEC, B1G, and Big 12, and may need to lower the academic standards to secure teams they want/need.

Big 12: FSU, Clemson, GATech, Miami, VPI, UNC, Pitt (they were considered before Pitt jumped to the ACC), Louisville, Cincy, BYU, possibly Syracuse and UConn (if the Big 12 goes the norther route - Pitt/Louisville/Cincy).

What I hope is that the PAC takes four from the Big 12, without Texas, the Big 12 dries up, the TV deal falls through and the GOR becomes moot, especially if the B1G takes Kansas and maybe one more. This leaves the ACC as the fourth power conference and we can take up to three teams to get to 16 (two if we can convince ND to go all in).

Essentially, if the goal is 16 teams in the power conferences, there is a strong likelihood of 4 power conferences. If everyone is happy with 14 teams, 5 power conferences are necessary for voting in BCS/Playoff football. If there are to be four conferences, I want the Big 12 destroyed, with ACC survival.

If the ACC is destroyed, then I would be happy in any power conference with preferences in this order: B1G, PAC, SEC, Big 12.

Just looking at these numbers tells you the ACC is relatively safe. If Armageddon comes to college football, the other conferences need a total of 14 teams to get to the 16 team super conferences that people have been talking about. There simply aren't that many good teams out there.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Just looking at these numbers tells you the ACC is relatively safe. If Armageddon comes to college football, the other conferences need a total of 14 teams to get to the 16 team super conferences that people have been talking about. There simply aren't that many good teams out there.

Exactly. The numbers just don't work.

Also, keep in mind that you would essentially be talking about the demolition of college sports across the entire Eastern seaboard.

You know, where the oldest and most established athletic programs are.

You know, where the majority of the US population lives.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Exactly. The numbers just don't work.

Also, keep in mind that you would essentially be talking about the demolition of college sports across the entire Eastern seaboard.

You know, where the oldest and most established athletic programs are.

You know, where the majority of the US population lives.

Exactly. If ESPN allows the ACC to be destroyed after it just helped destroy the Big East, what exactly are they going to show in the 7 PM ET time slots every night - SEC basketball ? Oh yeah, that's hot.

Large parts of the Big 10 and SEC footprints are in the Central time zone. Is ESPN simply going to fill the 7-8 PM time slot with more versions of Sports Center?

 

[HtownOrange]

Exactly. If ESPN allows the ACC to be destroyed after it just helped destroy the Big East, what exactly are they going to show in the 7 PM ET time slots every night - SEC basketball ? Oh yeah, that's hot.

Large parts of the Big 10 and SEC footprints are in the Central time zone. Is ESPN simply going to fill the 7-8 PM time slot with more versions of Sports Center?

That's a fair question, playing Devil's Advocate, I would argue that the SEC and Big 12 expanding covers the losses of ACC. As each conference expands, they gain more games to broadcast. In short, there are roughly 120-125 BCS level teams. That is what the limit of game choices actually is. As long as ESPN has a sufficient portion of access to these games, there really is no worry about filling slots. And as long as there are name brand teams, the teams most likely to be sought after, then there is no net loss to ESPN.

Of course the converse is true if the Big 12 is destroyed and the ACC survives.