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[QUOTE="EastCoast2, post: 2919240, member: 488"]
I think everybody would rather beat a full-strength Duke team than a Zion-less Duke team, that's no question, I think we all agree there. I think that as of today, we're still on the bubble.  Beating Duke without Zion on Saturday would still be a Q1 win, a win over the #1 ranked (as of Saturday) team in the country, and our second biggest win on our resume (behind @ Duke).

Since we are on the bubble, I'm looking at this from a numbers standpoint. How many points in a spread is Zion? 5, 6, 7? If Duke goes from a 12 point favorite to a 5 point favorite, our probability of winning probably increases about 20%. Wouldn't you rather beat Duke without Zion than lose to Duke with Zion? We would almost be a lock if we beat Duke, and if we lose we're still sweating these last 2-3 weeks. You don't get credit -for close losses or moral victories, if we kept it within 5 points to full-strength Duke. Ask Louisville fans if they'd rather replay last week's game with Zion out. He was in serious foul trouble almost the entire game, and Duke still won on the road.
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