AP (29) / Coaches (29) Polls for Nov 17

[DomeHolmes]

How wasn't Louisville punished more for their loss?

Them at 29th seems high

Don’t waste your time trying to figure out Sagarin. Cal and VT ahead of us? North Dakota st and South Dakota st at 40/41? Those are two good FCS teams but if anybody thinks they’re going 6-4 (ytd) in a power conference to really be a top 40 team they are nuts. All these computer models are flawed

 

[JJReddawg]

It looks like Chris Carlson took over for Emily and managed to pick up with the asinine picks.

Chris Carlson at College Poll Tracker

collegepolltracker.com

In his poll from Week 12 to Week 13:

- Unranked Illinois beats 4-6 Michigan State at home and he puts them at #21. Highest of any reporter.
- #18 Clemson beats Pitt in the road and stays at #18. Pitt goes from unranked to #25 after three straight losses.

 

[upperdeck]

I think you are severely undervaluing a win over Georgia…

ND was #5 when NiLL beat them and jumped in at #23

 

[orangenauburn]

ND was #5 when NiLL beat them and jumped in at #23

And immediately fell back to earth.

 

[BigNastyJon]

It looks like Chris Carlson took over for Emily and managed to pick up with the asinine picks.

Chris Carlson at College Poll Tracker

collegepolltracker.com

In his poll from Week 12 to Week 13:

- Unranked Illinois beats 4-6 Michigan State at home and he puts them at #21. Highest of any reporter.
- #18 Clemson beats Pitt in the road and stays at #18. Pitt goes from unranked to #25 after three straight losses.

Chris was on my flights back to Syracuse from Cal.

 

[djorange1989]

It looks like Chris Carlson took over for Emily and managed to pick up with the asinine picks.

Chris Carlson at College Poll Tracker

collegepolltracker.com

In his poll from Week 12 to Week 13:

- Unranked Illinois beats 4-6 Michigan State at home and he puts them at #21. Highest of any reporter.
- #18 Clemson beats Pitt in the road and stays at #18. Pitt goes from unranked to #25 after three straight losses.

Did he rank Kent State for only losing 42-0 this week?

 

[wooddoc]

Two words: post & standard...

 

[GoSU96]

Current Sagarin. Our best OOC is #50. Our SOS thus far is 57th, so it has been rising. That said, we only play one team in the current Top 30 and only two in the Top 40. Half of our schedule is between 43rd and 71st, a very strong middle. The bottom is not bad either with only one team outside 105th.

We are now 9th in the ACC, so right in the middle. Getting top half is definitely possible. Getting ahead of the Top FCS seems would require us to win out, and even that might not be enough. Being 5th in the ACC (25% teams above and 75% below) seems out of reach. Getting 2nd in the Northeast would likely require winning out. We need to get #1 in NY State, that could be tight. A convincing W vs UConn and a close loss to Miami could get us Top 50.


1. Bama new #1 overall, highest SEC
2. Texas #2 overall, 2nd SEC
3. Ohio State highest B18
6. Notre Dame highest non B18/SEC
7. Oregon highest undefeated, 2nd highest B18
8. Penn State highest Northeastern
10. Miami highest ACC, 2nd highest non B18/SEC, best on our schedule
12. Indiana 2nd highest undefeated
13. Colorado highest B12
14. Clemson 2nd ACC
16. SMU 3rd ACC
17. Iowa State highest B12
20. Tulane highest G5, highest AAC
23. Boise State 2nd highest G5, highest MWC
29. Louisville 4th ACC
34. VA Tech 5th ACC, 2nd best on our schedule
40. South Dakota State highest FCS
41. North Dakota State 2nd FCS
43. Pitt 6th ACC, 2nd Northeast
45. GA Tech 7th ACC
49. West Virgina
50. UNLV 2nd MWC, best OOC we play
53. Cal 8th ACC
54. Cuse 9th ACC, best in NY State
55. UNC 10th ACC
56. Army 2nd ACC, 2nd NY State
57. Rutgers
60. Duke 11th ACC
67. BC 12th ACC, 2nd worst Northeastern P4
69. UVA 13th ACC
71. NC State 14th ACC, 2nd worst FBS we play
73. Maryland worst Northeastern P4
75. Marshall
77. Navy
81. FSU 15th ACC
86. Wake 2nd worst ACC
89. Ohio
97. UConn 2nd worst FBS we play
104. Stanford worst P4/FBS we play, worst ACC, 2nd worst P4
116. Purdue worst P4
131. Buffalo worst in NY State
132. Delaware
152. Temple 2nd worst Northeast
180. Holy Cross worst on our schedule
181. UMass worst Northeast
187. Kennesaw State 2nd worst FBS
218. Kent State worst FBS
262. Northwestern State 2nd worst team
263. Stetson worst team

Beat four teams ranked higher. It’s a crap model. Indiana at 12?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Beat four teams ranked higher. It’s a crap model. Indiana at 12?

Indiana basically has a G5 schedule. Their OOC was a complete joke. In conference they haven't played any of the Top 7 in the current B1G standings yet, and only one of the Top 10! So they have played 6 of the current bottom 8 in the B1G standings, and still have the worst team left in Purdue. Having great stats is easy when Washington is by far their 2nd best team they have played this year.

 

[Chip]

Indiana basically has a G5 schedule. Their OOC was a complete joke. In conference they haven't played any of the Top 7 in the current B1G standings yet, and only one of the Top 10! So they have played 6 of the current bottom 8 in the B1G standings, and still have the worst team left in Purdue. Having great stats is easy when Washington is by far their 2nd best team they have played this year.

The good news for Indiana is that opportunity knocks this weekend.

But I disagree with your last sentence. It's not easy having great stats and going 10-0 without being a pretty good team. They're Indiana, with a new coach. This is uncharted territory for them. No letdowns or anything. I don't think it's easy at all.

 

[Eric15]

Indiana is unquestionably a very good team. We simply don't know yet whether they're an elite team. We will know exactly who they are after the Ohio State game.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The good news for Indiana is that opportunity knocks this weekend.

But I disagree with your last sentence. It's not easy having great stats and going 10-0 without being a pretty good team. They're Indiana, with a new coach. This is uncharted territory for them. No letdowns or anything. I don't think it's easy at all.

They are a good team and they have benefitted from a very weak schedule. They would probably be sitting where BYU and SMU are right now with our schedule, and our schedule isn't all that great.

I think they play Ohio State tight but should Ohio State win easily, in no way does Indiana deserve to make the playoff.

 

[upperdeck]

thats the Rub.

If Indiana just plays ok vs OSU like 30-17 type game they go 11-1 and probably get in,
If they win great for them then they deserve to get in
If they get blown out like 40-10 then what happens.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

thats the Rub.

If Indiana just plays ok vs OSU like 30-17 type game they go 11-1 and probably get in,
If they win great for them then they deserve to get in
If they get blown out like 40-10 then what happens.

I think they get left out. Look at Miami. They went from 5th to 9th with their loss. If Indiana has a similar drop they will be on the bubble for sure.

 

[upperdeck]

the bigger question will be what do they do with teams that lose the Conf Champ games.

OSU loses twice to Oregon probably still gets in unless 2nd one is a blow out
ACC probably only gets 1 team in now
B12 one team now

SEC tiebreaker means a ton with so many in the mix. They have 6 shots at 10-2 type teams and then one will lose in the SEC game and be 10-3. But if 2-3 lose one more suddenly they might end up with one 11-1 in Texas and 4-5 9-3 type teams.

PSU should get in now
Oregon would have to implode
OSU would have to lose to Mich
INDY is the WC. 11-1 would be tough to leave out and really have nothing on the schedule to show for it, but solid wins help

 

[richmondcuse03]

the bigger question will be what do they do with teams that lose the Conf Champ games.

OSU loses twice to Oregon probably still gets in unless 2nd one is a blow out
ACC probably only gets 1 team in now
B12 one team now

SEC tiebreaker means a ton with so many in the mix. They have 6 shots at 10-2 type teams and then one will lose in the SEC game and be 10-3. But if 2-3 lose one more suddenly they might end up with one 11-1 in Texas and 4-5 9-3 type teams.

PSU should get in now
Oregon would have to implode
OSU would have to lose to Mich
INDY is the WC. 11-1 would be tough to leave out and really have nothing on the schedule to show for it, but solid wins help

PSU doesn’t have that much better of a schedule than Indiana. Guess slightly better wins from a conference perspective. Plus beating West Virginia out of conference.

If they both end up 11-1 with the sole loss being to Ohio stage….its going to. W odd to leave one out vs the other.

 

[GoSU96]

Massey composite is 35 which makes a lot more sense

 

[HRE Otto IV]

PSU doesn’t have that much better of a schedule than Indiana. Guess slightly better wins from a conference perspective. Plus beating West Virginia out of conference.

If they both end up 11-1 with the sole loss being to Ohio stage….its going to. W odd to leave one out vs the other.

Penn State shouldn't be ranked as high as they are. That being said their schedule is harder than Indiana's. The 2nd best OOC game for PSU is way better than the best for Indiana. They also didn't play an FCS, although Kent State is worse than most FCS schools. Illinois, at USC, at Wisconsin, at Minnesota is better than anything Indiana played within conference outside of common opponents tOSU and Washington.

B1G teams were encouraged to play a P4 OOC and no FCS. Indiana chose to play an FCS and no P4. That should knock them out of the playoffs, on top of only playing bottom half of the B1G.

 

[upperdeck]

You can argue that Army if they beat ND should be in ahead of Indiana I suppose.

Each would have played the 1 tough game. Indy schedule would still be ahead of Army though.

 

[bnoro]

Ok, so this is why, in that other thread, I was talking about how they should rank within cohorts.

Take the undefeated teams and rank those first. They get the top spots. Then take the 1 loss teams and rank them. They automatically fall behind the unbeatens. Then the 2 loss teams and rank them. Until you get to 25.

It would remove the preseason perception bias. You week 2 Top 25 is all undefeated teams. This ranking prioritizes game results over subjective perceptions of "how good" teams are relative to each other.

Not all losses are created equal. Why should Clemson be penalized for losing to a top Georgia team at the same level as SU for losing to a terrible Stanford team.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Not all losses are created equal. Why should Clemson be penalized for losing to a top Georgia team at the same level as SU for losing to a terrible Stanford team.

They're not penalized, not over time. In fact, best loss would have been very compelling for how they stack up among the ranks of the 1 loss programs.

 

[bnoro]

They're not penalized, not over time. In fact, best loss would have been very compelling for how they stack up among the ranks of the 1 loss programs.

But a two loss team could be better than a one loss team.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

But a two loss team could be better than a one loss team.

Hmm, that two loss team probably shouldn't have lost that second game then.

To me the problem to solve is that the universe of playoff contenders is decided before the 1st snap of the 1st game.

The only objective measure of performance is game results. There are flaws to that thinking, because not all wins and all losses are created equal.

But do we want to reward teams for winning games, or do we want to reward teams for conference affiliation?

Right now, winning matters less than pre-season perception of how good you are and how good your conference is. That's the wrong flaw.

It's ridiculous. But it's true. It's not meritocracy.

 

[bnoro]

Hmm, that two loss team probably shouldn't have lost that second game then.

To me the problem to solve is that the universe of playoff contenders is decided before the 1st snap of the 1st game.

The only objective measure of performance is game results. There are flaws to that thinking, because not all wins and all losses are created equal.

But do we want to reward teams for winning games, or do we want to reward teams for conference affiliation?

Right now, winning matters less than pre-season perception of how good you are and how good your conference is. That's the wrong flaw.

It's ridiculous. But it's true. It's not meritocracy.

Playing a difficult schedule matters. SU had one of the easiest P5 schedules in the country this year. If we had only lost to Stanford and were currently 9-1, you're saying we're more deserving than Georgia of a playoff spot? That's crazy.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Hmm, that two loss team probably shouldn't have lost that second game then.

To me the problem to solve is that the universe of playoff contenders is decided before the 1st snap of the 1st game.

The only objective measure of performance is game results. There are flaws to that thinking, because not all wins and all losses are created equal.

But do we want to reward teams for winning games, or do we want to reward teams for conference affiliation?

Right now, winning matters less than pre-season perception of how good you are and how good your conference is. That's the wrong flaw.

It's ridiculous. But it's true. It's not meritocracy.

Then we need to split away into a 40 team division and go solely off of record.