Sorry, but what makes you think that? Chemistry improvements? 4 and 5 should be better, depending on how you view Maliq leaving. The rest is a total question mark.
Obviously, I hope you are correct.
OK, challenge accepted.
This is why I think we are only
a couple pieces away from 24 wins this season.
Let's look at 3 position groups, because that's really what's more important than who starts.
Nobody plays for 40 minutes, and frankly unless they are
so much better than everyone else, most players should top out at 32 minutes a game - that's taking off just one TV timeout stretch per half. That's not unreasonable.
CENTERS:
Last year, Hima was hurt from the outset, Patterson never played, Carey played a handful of times (in single digits, I believe), and MacLeod seemed slow footed, couldn't cover good centers one-on-one, and was injured by Christmas. Edwards was not replaced, and so Maliq Brown was our
de facto center for the last 2/3 of the season. Big hearted, quick hands, but undersized and wore down over time.
This year, Eddie Lampkin starts. He has started for 3 years at Colorado, and played 21-27 minutes a game. He averaged 5-7 rebounds each year, and his scoring went from around 6 points a game to 10 points a game last year. He peaked at the end of the year, and played well in the NCAA tournament. He's a bull of a man. He's like Chevy Troutman from the old Pitt teams. He's a good passer, too, although he sometimes gets a little careless with the ball, kind of like Copeland used to do last year. I think we can pencil this guy in for 25-28 minutes a game. He'll probably give us 10-12 points and around 8 rebounds a game, along with 2 or 3 assists, and probably 2 or 3 turnovers. He is not a shot blocker. He's a space eater inside. A poor man's Arinze Onuaku. A below the rim guy who has good footwork down low and has the patience and footwork to get his shot inside.
Then, let's just say MacLeod is healthy, which would be great. He's not quick enough on his feet to be a primary defender against great post players. I think we all agree on that. But he's 7-4 and bulky. He could potentially be a more physical (if less cerebral) version of Baye Moussa Keita back there, or worst case, a shot blocking menace like Jeremy McNeil. And like McNeil or Keita, we are not looking to MacLeod for offense with Lampkin on the team. He is our low post offense.
Right now, we do not have a third body, in case MacLeod hurts his foot again. This has to be fixed, or this one thing could sink our season. Keeping it real here.
FORWARDS:
Last year, we entered the season hoping for a "pop" from Benny Williams, who should have been surrounded at F by Maliq Brown, Chris Bell, Quadir Copeland and Justin Taylor. And boy, it just didn't work out, did it? But at least you can say that Red gave everybody a fair chance to play. No arguing with that. He gave these guys every opportunity to play like a team, and they just weren't able to.
This year, are we "worse" talent-wise, as many have said or suggested? On paper, Donnie Freeman is an upgrade over Benny Williams, who never lived up to his potential. Chris Bell returns, and showed signs late in the year of becoming a more well-rounded player. That alone could improve our defense by 5 points a game next season, if he just takes guarding his guy more seriously.
At forward we have our transfer Jyare Davis from powerhouse school the Delaware Blue Hens. But 3 years of experience, 2 of which he started and averaged mid-teens per game to go along with 6 or 7 rebounds in a little over 30 minutes. Another good passer, with around 2.5 assists per game for the last 2 years. Let's say he plays 20 minutes a game. He's probably good for almost 10 points and about 5 rebounds as a part-timer. That's very solid depth. Everyone is contributing, not just the starters. This prevents slumps, when scoring is distributed among the team. Not EVERYONE is going to be bad on the same night; that's the thinking.
But that's it. That can't be. They MUST add one more guy here, or this is another potential roster disaster, just waiting to happen.
If we add another guy, it can be just one guy for both spots (PF/C) if he is a guy who can hit a 3, space the floor, and force opposing big men away from the rim.
Then this could be a very good unit. Needs more depth, too thin right now, but several very good pieces that fit together well. Looks like an improved unit right now over last year, which was kind of a disaster when you look at the pieces we had.
GUARDS:
Last year, Judah and the rest, literally. He took most of the shots, played me-first basketball for most of the year, except for one stretch of a handful of games in January where he dished out some very good assist numbers. Rest of the time, though, he just didn't make winning plays. He has talent, but he's not a winner. He's a "me" guy, not a "we" guy. Buh-bye. Addition by subtraction.
Copeland - firecracker, big loss; maybe big gain?
Cuffe was not dynamic, but was dependable with the ball, made few turnovers and can get out on the break. Plays pretty good defense, too. If he is on the floor, he will likely have worked off the rust, and show us what he has. I expect improvement.
JJ last year started the year poorly, as he and Judah got to know each other. After a month, he grew into a dynamic sidekick. Maybe a bit too similar to Judah, but he was the best "2nd guard" we've had in quite some time. His numbers last year compare to freshman Tyus Battle. I think he's going to have a good year. Better than last year, because it's going to be his team.
This year, we add Jaquan Carlos, Elijah ("Choppa") Moore and Chance Westry to returnees Starling and Cuffe.
Jaquan Carlos is an actual, honest to goodness point guard. He averaged over 6 assists a game last year for Hofstra, and nearly 5 the year before. He has 3 years experience, 2 as a starter. He is a double digit scorer, he's a viable threat from 3 (has to be guarded, but not great 32-34%). He's very good from the foul line, which means this guy can help close games for us. He can also handle the press, as evidenced by his 2.5 to 1 Asst/TO ratio over the last two years. Quick, but not tiny; not a defensive liability. Let's say he plays 20 minutes a game. I think he'll give us about 6 points and 4 assists in half a game, and he'll probably help close games at the foul line.
Moore was an outstanding 3 point shooter as a senior, and really came on late in the season. Moore has good size at 6-4 and ought to be able to get off his shot, especially since he's not a first or second option on offense. He's like the 4th guy to game plan for, so he should get some open looks and do pretty well, if we don't have to ask him to do too much.
And then we have the Mysterious Mr. Westry. His tape from college was good. He was a physical specimen in the lane, had some nifty passes, and seemed like a less spastic Quadir Copeland. If he has regained his health, and can approach what he showed in college already, we won't miss Copeland. We will have a better version of what he offered.
Add up the potential positives, and this could be a very good team. I still think we need a couple front court players, and maybe another shooting guard, but if Westry is healthy, I think we have enough overall shooters (Bell, JJ, Freeman, Moore, Carlos), but you can always use more.
We have 3 open spots. I could see a big man back-up, a stretch 4 and a shooting guard. More shooters. We have lots of slashers. We have a real PG, a couple very solid combo guards. We have a coach who has shown he will share ball handling duties among multiple players, if only to keep defenses off balance at the point of attack. We have real low post scorers again (Lampkin and Davis, actually).
The team has a lot of pieces, but is thin up front.
With a couple more guys, this is a 4th place ACC team, wins 24 games or so.
That's how I see it.
Not done yet, but pretty close, and the pieces fit better this year.
