Are We Getting Better?

[TheCusian]

It's easy to get so caught up in a history of futility that these last two games *feel* like the last 15, or similar to last years decent into horribleness. The question with this much youth is: are we getting better?

→ I had hoped for a small step back for the defense, say from #30 overall to #45 overall. So far that has not happened. We sit at #70. That sucks. I was encouraged by some of our play in the UVa game. But in the end we couldn't get a stop when we needed to. (And for the second time in 3 games we get a fumble off of a sack and fail to come up with the ball. Maddening. Also - a dumb late penalty extends a drive where it could have been a ket stop. Also maddening.)

These are the hallmarks of a young defense. I think we're getting better - but the USF game is still to fresh in my mind.

→ I had hoped for a nice step forward with Lester's system on offense, say from #116 to #60-70. So far? In total offense we're at #111. That doesn't seem right?! I mean the eye test alone will tell you we're better than 5 spots better. It is what it is - but I think there are some signs in the numbers that say we're getting better on offense. Quickly.

Scoring
Nationally we sit at #53. That's better than Duke, Michigan State, Michigan, Pitt, Louisville, etc. Last year we were #119.

It's probably a bit inflated because of not playing a full season (correct) and playing our OOC (incorrect), right? We're averaging 27.0 vs FBS non-P5 and 30.7 vs FBS P5. (Our worst game scoring vs P5 we played vs LSU (24pts) and played with our 3-5 stringer.)

I wouldn't be being honest if I didn't say the 3OT game added some heft to our scoring avg in our loses. In regulation, we'd be at 24.0 per game in our losses.

Dungey
Dungey is the x-factor for sure. And he's been good. His 167.10 rating leads the ACC. Most yards per attempt at 8.8. 7th in passing % at 63%. His timely scrambling is important too. I'm too lazy to remove sack numbers, but the eye ball test alone says - he's a threat to take off. That's big for a young offense.

Yards per Play and Amount of plays per game
Here's the issue. (Major hat tip to Millhouse and Go)

We're 10th in the conference in yards/play. (Not good)
We've only run 378 plays this year*. (Not good)

We need more plays per game. And we need to extend drives (39% 3rd down conversion rate, 9th in ACC).

Tale of Two Halves
In looking at the games with Dungey, it quickly becomes apparent that we are good on offense for a half and bad the other half. We've not played a complete game offensively yet.

This is a hallmark of a young offense and a conservative offensive philosophy.

I think we're getting better, but will it be enough to win vs good defenses?

----

The answer to what could get us to a bowl is better defense and:

In my best Millhouse - Let's be aggressive passing the whole game and if that means making mistakes, so be it. Let's win or lose in a blaze of glory.

*EDITED

 

[cuse309]

Yes. We are getting better. We have a young talented core of.players that will continue improving. Probably won't get us to a bowl game , but it will the next 3 years.

 

[NineOneSeven]

You can't objectively tell me that the on field talent is not better than the last few years.

We are better this year, because many of our players, while young, are better then their seniority.

That said, I think it's much more a result of the players simply being better at football, than our coaching staff making them better.

If that make sense?

 

[TheCusian]

You can't objectively tell me that the on field talent is not better than the last few years.

We are better this year, because many of our players, while young, are better then their seniority.

That said, I think it's much more a result of the players simply being better at football, than our coaching staff making them better.

If that make sense?

I don't know. I think a little of column a and little of column b. It's always hard to separate the "well coached" from the "more talented" columns. I am starting to think we're hamstringing our talent on offense by being too conservative.

 

[Millhouse]

It's easy to get so caught up in a history of futility that these last two games *feel* like the last 15, or similar to last years decent into horribleness. The question with this much youth is: are we getting better?

→ I had hoped for a small step back for the defense, say from #30 overall to #45 overall. So far that has not happened. We sit at #70. That sucks. I was encouraged by some of our play in the UVa game. But in the end we couldn't get a stop when we needed to. (And for the second time in 3 games we get a fumble off of a sack and fail to come up with the ball. Maddening. Also - a dumb late penalty extends a drive where it could have been a ket stop. Also maddening.)

These are the hallmarks of a young defense. I think we're getting better - but the USF game is still to fresh in my mind.

→ I had hoped for a nice step forward with Lester's system on offense, say from #116 to #60-70. So far? In total offense we're at #111. That doesn't seem right?! I mean the eye test alone will tell you we're better than 5 spots better. It is what it is - but I think there are some signs in the numbers that say we're getting better on offense. Quickly.

Scoring
Nationally we sit at #53. That's better than Duke, Michigan State, Michigan, Pitt, Louisville, etc. Last year we were #119.

It's probably a bit inflated because of not playing a full season (correct) and playing our OOC (incorrect), right? We're averaging 27.0 vs FBS non-P5 and 30.7 vs FBS P5. (Our worst game scoring vs P5 we played vs LSU (24pts) and played with our 3-5 stringer.)

I wouldn't be being honest if I didn't say the 3OT game added some heft to our scoring avg in our loses. In regulation, we'd be at 24.0 per game in our losses.

Dungey
Dungey is the x-factor for sure. And he's been good. His 167.10 rating leads the ACC. Most yards per attempt at 8.8. 7th in passing % at 63%. His timely scrambling is important too. I'm too lazy to remove sack numbers, but the eye ball test alone says - he's a threat to take off. That's big for a young offense.

Yards per Play and Amount of plays per game
Here's the issue. (Major hat tip to Millhouse and Go)

We're 10th in the conference in yards/play. (Not good)
We've only run 378 plays per game. (Not good)

We need more plays per game. And we need to extend drives (39% 3rd down conversion rate, 9th in ACC).

Tale of Two Halves
In looking at the games with Dungey, it quickly becomes apparent that we are good on offense for a half and bad the other half. We've not played a complete game offensively yet.

This is a hallmark of a young offense and a conservative offensive philosophy.

I think we're getting better, but will it be enough to win vs good defenses?

----

The answer to what could get us to a bowl is better defense and:

In my best Millhouse - Let's be aggressive passing the whole game and if that means making mistakes, so be it. Let's win or lose in a blaze of glory.

if you're ok at scoring and not good at gaining yards, you're lucky. it doesn't predict anything for the next game. in the long run, you're not going to score if you don't gain yards.

378 plays per game is a lot. no wonder they're tired.

i do think they're better because of dungey. but i don't like the offense and the secondary is a disaster that will ruin the season when teams eventually exploit it

 

[TheCusian]

if you're ok at scoring and not good at gaining yards, you're lucky. it doesn't predict anything for the next game. in the long run, you're not going to score if you don't gain yards.

378 plays per game is a lot. no wonder they're tired.

i do think they're better because of dungey. but i don't like the offense and the secondary is a disaster that will ruin the season when teams eventually exploit it

Fixed typo. Thanks.

Some of those scoring plays are designed big plays though (Estime, Ishmeal on play action) - and some are from Dungey making something from nothing (jumping over people). But I agree. Need more plays and yards.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

In our last 59 games we have only lost 3 times to teams that were ranked 70 or higher in the Sagarin. There is still half a season left so rankings can change but as of right now UVA & USF are our two worst losses in the last 59 games. On the other side we have only beaten one Top 60 team under Shafer and zero Top 50 teams.

Last year is hard to evaluate on O but compared to 2013:

2013 75th in S&P+
2015 76th (pre UVA game)

On D:

2015: 66th (pre UVA)
2014: 33rd
2013: 67th

Statistically we are playing the same as our 2013 team. This is pre UVA though and we have 6 games left. It also doesn't account for the QB injuries this year. On D the difference is that in 2013 we were really good or really bad. This year we are constantly bad.

 

[qdawgg]

Good post. I thought we had enough talent last year to be better, especially on offense, and I said it all the time. I still believe it and I believe that is even more true this year. Last year I blamed the coaches for not getting enough out of the players, poor system, poor playcalling, and seemingly not coaching the players up (OLine especially, IMO). I am getting to the point where I feel that Lester's offense is only a little better than McD's. We have good series but don't score, or don't take advantage of opportunities. That was true last year. We can bash McD but we did move the ball at times, our Redzone numbers were atrocious though. Much better this year obviously, as far as scoring something in the Redzone.

I don't think McD was ever going to be better than he was though. I don't know about Lester. I realize the talent is young but there are many schools in the country that have young teams and do damage on offense. Every single year there are teams doing that.

We have talent to win on both sides of the ball I believe, as I said last year, I don't think the talent is the issue at this point. And I'm not saying we have the talent to win the conference right now. We have the talent to play better than we have against similar opponents.

Every year I just find myself saying the same things. The next game will tell me a lot, the next game will tell me a lot, the next game...

 

[K Otto XLIV]

You can't objectively tell me that the on field talent is not better than the last few years.

We are better this year, because many of our players, while young, are better then their seniority.

That said, I think it's much more a result of the players simply being better at football, than our coaching staff making them better.

If that make sense?

We don't know on D. On O I would say that yes we are better at QB, RB, and WR. The OL Shafer has brought in we will not know until two years from now. On D we are playing young guys but are they good? We don't know if any of the guys are better or worse than Reddish, Desir, Eskridge, Lyn, Anderson, Kelly, Robinson, Welsh, Bromley, Crume, Spruill, Davis, Lynch. I hope that they are as good or better but we haven't seen it yet. They could be worse.

 

[CusefanATL]

talent level was by far superior to UVA

Next year is the year my friends... lets find a way to 6-6 and get to a bowl. I will bet up to $100 with anyone that is willing that we will be ranked next year at some point.

 

[upperdeck]

when the Fr QB who makes some great plays stops making the Fr plays too then the offense will be OK even with a below avg Oline. you can say OT skewed the pts last week, but also wonder how a team crosses the 50 4 times without scoring and only attempting one FG. could just as easily had 24 pts the first quarter as zero, had we just scored 10 we win the game going away. but thats been the story all along, when the Oline cant create push you have to scheme all the positive plays and thats hard to do without elite talent. the offense is far from efficient but at least we move the ball at least 2 quarters of every game.

 

[TheCusian]

Good post. I thought we had enough talent last year to be better, especially on offense, and I said it all the time. I still believe it and I believe that is even more true this year. Last year I blamed the coaches for not getting enough out of the players, poor system, poor playcalling, and seemingly not coaching the players up (OLine especially, IMO). I am getting to the point where I feel that Lester's offense is only a little better than McD's. We have good series but don't score, or don't take advantage of opportunities. That was true last year. We can bash McD but we did move the ball at times, our Redzone numbers were atrocious though. Much better this year obviously, as far as scoring something in the Redzone. I don't think McD was ever going to be better than he was though. I don't know about Lester. I realize the talent is young but there are many schools in the country that have young teams and do damage on offense. Every single year there are teams doing that. We have talent to win on both sides of the ball I believe, as I said last year, I don't think the talent is the issue at this point. And I'm not saying we have the talent to win the conference right now. We have the talent to play better than we have against similar opponents. Every year I just find myself saying the same things. The next game will tell me a lot, the next game will tell me a lot, the next game...

Agreed. This year with Dungey I feel like I'm just waiting for it all to click click boom. I didn't get that feeling with the last two years worth of offense.

It's very similar (just in this way) to half way through 2012. Seemed like the offense should have been better than it was. We started running better with Smith and Nassib to Lemon exploded.

I wonder if more passing doesn't make this offense click.

One last difference between OC's: I trust Lester will at least look at the numbers (he's a stat guy) and adjust. I'm not sure I'd trust Mcit to do the same.

 

[Millhouse]

Fixed typo. Thanks.

Some of those scoring plays are designed big plays though (Estime, Ishmeal on play action) - and some are from Dungey making something from nothing (jumping over people). But I agree. Need more plays and yards.

95th in first downs in conference play. if you're not getting first downs, you don't have much time to set up anything. and we suck at running the ball conventionally so play action

 

[NineOneSeven]

talent level was by far superior to UVA

Next year is the year my friends... lets find a way to 6-6 and get to a bowl. I will bet up to $100 with anyone that is willing that we will be ranked next year at some point.

Plenty will take this. (Not me).

 

[RF2044]

You can't objectively tell me that the on field talent is not better than the last few years.

We are better this year, because many of our players, while young, are better then their seniority.

That said, I think it's much more a result of the players simply being better at football, than our coaching staff making them better.

If that make sense?

Agree 100%.

No doubt the talent level is on the rise. And we're so underclassman heavy that it stands to reason that when these guys gain a bit more experience that the results will make a sizeable jump at some point.

But I am greatly concerned about the game planning, in-game coaching, etc. I see very little evidence that the staff is getting better in any facet other than recruiting.

Shafer was never going to be a superstar hire--he was a career coordinator who was going to need to make dynamite AC / coordinator hires in order to excel. I like some of the changes that have been made, but not crazy about some of the guys on staff. I think more adjustments are needed, and HCSS is running out of time. And I don't say the latter hoping he gets let go -- nothing would please me more than to see him succeed. I can see the tangible improvement in talent, and I know it will take time, but I'm concerned that Shafer just might not have the chops to get the job done. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Agree 100%.

No doubt the talent level is on the rise. And we're so underclassman heavy that it stands to reason that when these guys gain a bit more experience that the results will make a sizeable jump at some point.

But I am greatly concerned about the game planning, in-game coaching, etc. I see very little evidence that the staff is getting better in any facet other than recruiting.

Shafer was never going to be a superstar hire--he was a career coordinator who was going to need to make dynamite AC / coordinator hires in order to excel. I like some of the changes that have been made, but not crazy about some of the guys on staff. I think more adjustments are needed, and HCSS is running out of time. And I don't say the latter hoping he gets let go -- nothing would please me more than to see him succeed. I can see the tangible improvement in talent, and I know it will take time, but I'm concerned that Shafer just might not have the chops to get the job done. Hope I'm wrong.

Agreed. And I mostly meant talent on the offensive side of the ball.

 

[CusefanATL]

Plenty will take this. (Not me).

Cool. Bring it on... only betting with 1 person, so 1st to accept wins (or loses in this case)

 

[TheCusian]

95th in first downs in conference play. if you're not getting first downs, you don't have much time to set up anything. and we suck at running the ball conventionally so play action

I don't know if we suck at running the ball conventionally with our best RB because we seem to not do it. I think Fredericks had a nice 8 yarder off tackle and that was it.

 

[Crusty]

I have seen enough to make a few observations and to voice some concerns.

1. We are not a very good football team right now.
2. We could get better as the season progresses, but we have a long way to go.
3. We can't improve without a better O Line. There is not an offensive scheme that will work in CFB with a bad O Line. Other than a staff change, I have no answer to this problem. It must be addressed for any of our hopes to be realized and that can't happen mid-season.
4. We have not played the better defenses in the ACC yet. BC, Pitt, Clemson and FSU are all better than those we have played save LSU.
5. Our defense will have their hands full with most of the remaining games.
6. We may finish shockingly low in both offensive and defensive stats. We may also finish with fewer than 30 ppg - again.

Unless there iis a dramatic turn around, we will not have improved much at all. Yes, we have a few exciting players and a lot of kids, but as a team we will not have improved much at all on measurables.

Seems to me that is where we are and the question is how do things change for the better? Certainly our kids will get better with more snaps under their belts, but I don't see the solutions for the secondary or O Line either this year or the next.

I am resigned to the prospect of 2 or 3 more years of mediocrity. Maybe then the program will have a solid foundation to start winning. In the meantime what else is there to do but to enjoy Dungey's highlight plays and to keep rooting?

 

[longislandcuse]

Dungey and incoming QB recruits are our only hope.

Shafer and co. do not excite me in the least. He's an average recruiter and below average coach.

Yea, Neal, Davis, Clark etc. are all exciting incoming players but we are in the ACC, not the Big East and I think people forget or refuse to acknowledge that fact. Getting one or two 4 stars per year isn't going to cut it in this league. Only way this team takes off is if Dungey/incoming QB are big time because that can elevate the entire team. Nothing else we have is special. Fredericks, Ishmael etc are the same recruits everyone else is getting at minimum.

 

[RF2044]

Dungey and incoming QB recruits are our only hope.

Shafer and co. do not excite me in the least. He's an average recruiter and below average coach.

Yea, Neal, Davis, Clark etc. are all exciting incoming players but we are in the ACC, not the Big East and I think people forget or refuse to acknowledge that fact. Getting one or two 4 stars per year isn't going to cut it in this league. Only way this team takes off is if Dungey/incoming QB are big time because that can elevate the entire team. Nothing else we have is special. Fredericks, Ishmael etc are the same recruits everyone else is getting at minimum.

In the main, you might be right about needing to recruit better in general overall. But I don't think you're right about Neal, Davis, Clark--those guys are impact players no matter where they end up--and it is pretty clear that recruiting is trending in the right direction. All you have to do is look at the offer lists of the incoming class to confirm that.

Those guys are exceptional recruits. Clark is a universal 5 star. When was the last time we landed one of those? Honest question -- was it Scott Freeney? Dulayne Morgan? It's been about that long. Shafer is an above average recruiter. Football recruits GENERALLY take longer to make an impact than they do in other sports, like basketball. Dungey is definitely reason to get excited, the question is--does the current staff have time to see the foundation they've established come to fruition?

 

[longislandcuse]

In the main, you might be right about needing to recruit better in general overall. But I don't think you're right about Neal, Davis, Clark--those guys are impact players no matter where they end up--and it is pretty clear that recruiting is trending in the right direction. All you have to do is look at the offer lists of the incoming class to confirm that.

Those guys are exceptional recruits. Clark is a universal 5 star. When was the last time we landed one of those? Honest question -- was it Scott Freeney? Dulayne Morgan? It's been about that long. Shafer is an above average recruiter. Football recruits GENERALLY take longer to make an impact than they do in other sports, like basketball. Dungey is definitely reason to get excited, the question is--does the current staff have time to see the foundation they've established come to fruition?

Those guys are absolutely exceptional recruits but every team in this league gets at least a handful of those guys plus a foundation of 3 stars. That's our peer group... 3 stars with a handful of 4/5 stars. I'm not even talking about FSU/Clemson/Miami etc.. Just look at UVA, who is UVA in the grand scheme of CFB but that running back that was torching us is a former 5 star.

 

[RF2044]

Those guys are absolutely exceptional recruits but every team in this league gets at least a handful of those guys plus a foundation of 3 stars. That's our peer group... 3 stars with a handful of 4/5 stars. I'm not even talking about FSU/Clemson/Miami etc.. Just look at UVA, who is UVA in the grand scheme of CFB but that running back that was torching us is a former 5 star.

That's why it was important to land a Neal, land a Clark, etc.

We've had such a dearth of offensive playmakers, look at what having even 1 or 2 [i.e., that kid you mentioned from UVa] can do. With Dungey, Philips, Fredricks, and some of those incoming guys you mention, we're just getting our heads back above water, after all these years of having subpar skilled offensive talent. And time will tell how good these guys eventually are.

 

[buffalorange]

It's easy to get so caught up in a history of futility that these last two games *feel* like the last 15, or similar to last years decent into horribleness. The question with this much youth is: are we getting better?

→ I had hoped for a small step back for the defense, say from #30 overall to #45 overall. So far that has not happened. We sit at #70. That sucks. I was encouraged by some of our play in the UVa game. But in the end we couldn't get a stop when we needed to. (And for the second time in 3 games we get a fumble off of a sack and fail to come up with the ball. Maddening. Also - a dumb late penalty extends a drive where it could have been a ket stop. Also maddening.)

These are the hallmarks of a young defense. I think we're getting better - but the USF game is still to fresh in my mind.

→

There was a graphic posted during last Saturday's game asserting that 67% of the SU offense was provided by freshmen. To me that is huge. I would also say it bodes well for the future as those players mature, develop, and gain experience.

 

[Crusty]

That stat does not speak to the O Line. They are the weak link and if we had kids that were better they would be playing. UVA D Line ate our lunch in the second half. Robinson in particular looked lost.