Are We Getting Better?

[tipphill]

It's easy to get so caught up in a history of futility that these last two games *feel* like the last 15, or similar to last years decent into horribleness. The question with this much youth is: are we getting better?

→ I had hoped for a small step back for the defense, say from #30 overall to #45 overall. So far that has not happened. We sit at #70. That sucks. I was encouraged by some of our play in the UVa game. But in the end we couldn't get a stop when we needed to. (And for the second time in 3 games we get a fumble off of a sack and fail to come up with the ball. Maddening. Also - a dumb late penalty extends a drive where it could have been a ket stop. Also maddening.)

These are the hallmarks of a young defense. I think we're getting better - but the USF game is still to fresh in my mind.

→ I had hoped for a nice step forward with Lester's system on offense, say from #116 to #60-70. So far? In total offense we're at #111. That doesn't seem right?! I mean the eye test alone will tell you we're better than 5 spots better. It is what it is - but I think there are some signs in the numbers that say we're getting better on offense. Quickly.

Scoring
Nationally we sit at #53. That's better than Duke, Michigan State, Michigan, Pitt, Louisville, etc. Last year we were #119.

It's probably a bit inflated because of not playing a full season (correct) and playing our OOC (incorrect), right? We're averaging 27.0 vs FBS non-P5 and 30.7 vs FBS P5. (Our worst game scoring vs P5 we played vs LSU (24pts) and played with our 3-5 stringer.)

I wouldn't be being honest if I didn't say the 3OT game added some heft to our scoring avg in our loses. In regulation, we'd be at 24.0 per game in our losses.

Dungey
Dungey is the x-factor for sure. And he's been good. His 167.10 rating leads the ACC. Most yards per attempt at 8.8. 7th in passing % at 63%. His timely scrambling is important too. I'm too lazy to remove sack numbers, but the eye ball test alone says - he's a threat to take off. That's big for a young offense.

Yards per Play and Amount of plays per game
Here's the issue. (Major hat tip to Millhouse and Go)

We're 10th in the conference in yards/play. (Not good)
We've only run 378 plays this year*. (Not good)

We need more plays per game. And we need to extend drives (39% 3rd down conversion rate, 9th in ACC).

Tale of Two Halves
In looking at the games with Dungey, it quickly becomes apparent that we are good on offense for a half and bad the other half. We've not played a complete game offensively yet.

This is a hallmark of a young offense and a conservative offensive philosophy.

I think we're getting better, but will it be enough to win vs good defenses?

----

The answer to what could get us to a bowl is better defense and:

In my best Millhouse - Let's be aggressive passing the whole game and if that means making mistakes, so be it. Let's win or lose in a blaze of glory.

*EDITED

you do not get better with a bad ol, defense,and qb. right now we have 1 of the three, and dungey will not last playing like he has to play---get a bigger ol albeit even if it is slower--u can mix in some speed but the emphasis should be on size. defense is a mess right now, secondary is the biggest issue--besides coaching at several positions

 

[tep624]

That stat does not speak to the O Line. They are the weak link and if we had kids that were better they would be playing. UVA D Line ate our lunch in the second half. Robinson in particular looked lost.

Which is a sad development because IMO the O Line looked pretty good up to the LSU game and at a minimum, serviceable. I'm starting to wonder if some of these guys are banged up.

 

[im4cuse]

I have seen enough to make a few observations and to voice some concerns.

1. We are not a very good football team right now.
2. We could get better as the season progresses, but we have a long way to go.
3. We can't improve without a better O Line. There is not an offensive scheme that will work in CFB with a bad O Line. Other than a staff change, I have no answer to this problem. It must be addressed for any of our hopes to be realized and that can't happen mid-season.
4. We have not played the better defenses in the ACC yet. BC, Pitt, Clemson and FSU are all better than those we have played save LSU.
5. Our defense will have their hands full with most of the remaining games.
6. We may finish shockingly low in both offensive and defensive stats. We may also finish with fewer than 30 ppg - again.

Unless there iis a dramatic turn around, we will not have improved much at all. Yes, we have a few exciting players and a lot of kids, but as a team we will not have improved much at all on measurables.

Seems to me that is where we are and the question is how do things change for the better? Certainly our kids will get better with more snaps under their belts, but I don't see the solutions for the secondary or O Line either this year or the next.

I am resigned to the prospect of 2 or 3 more years of mediocrity. Maybe then the program will have a solid foundation to start winning. In the meantime what else is there to do but to enjoy Dungey's highlight plays and to keep rooting?

spot on. These little speedy guys like Neal etc. won't help much because our QB will be killed trying to get them the ball. The most experienced unit on the team, the O line, just flat out sucks. And it's sucked for years. Especially when we are running short side options with our slowest wideout, creating third and longs, not a formula for success. On defense, the linebackers are small but they sure are slow. Why not convert Morris and/or McFarlane a al Doug Hogue? Tell them, son, this is your only possible way on to an NFL field. Oh well, forget it

 

[Chris02M]

we will see how we perform against fsu and clemson thats how i will be able to tell if we get wood shedded by both then we arent getting better since we were able to hang in and be in the game vs our peer level schools last yr. Lsu is only game to go on right now since we had a chance to be there til the end i think we are getting better from a talent perspective but until we get an upset win over a top team we will be running in mud

 

[tep624]

spot on. These little speedy guys like Neal etc. won't help much because our QB will be killed trying to get them the ball. The most experienced unit on the team, the O line, just flat out sucks. And it's sucked for years. Especially when we are running short side options with our slowest wideout, creating third and longs, not a formula for success. On defense, the linebackers are small but they sure are slow. Why not convert Morris and/or McFarlane a al Doug Hogue? Tell them, son, this is your only possible way on to an NFL field. Oh well, forget it

You think the LBer's need an upgrade and your suggestion is converting George Morris?

Oy vey.

 

[TheCusian]

That stat does not speak to the O Line. They are the weak link and if we had kids that were better they would be playing. UVA D Line ate our lunch in the second half. Robinson in particular looked lost.

I actually think the freshman might be better - linemen usually take longer to mature. Clark is a rare one.

 

[Crusty]

I actually think the freshman might be better - linemen usually take longer to mature. Clark is a rare one.

I hope so because we will need them to grow up next year.

 

[anomander]

Agree 100%.

No doubt the talent level is on the rise. And we're so underclassman heavy that it stands to reason that when these guys gain a bit more experience that the results will make a sizeable jump at some point.

But I am greatly concerned about the game planning, in-game coaching, etc. I see very little evidence that the staff is getting better in any facet other than recruiting.

Shafer was never going to be a superstar hire--he was a career coordinator who was going to need to make dynamite AC / coordinator hires in order to excel. I like some of the changes that have been made, but not crazy about some of the guys on staff. I think more adjustments are needed, and HCSS is running out of time. And I don't say the latter hoping he gets let go -- nothing would please me more than to see him succeed. I can see the tangible improvement in talent, and I know it will take time, but I'm concerned that Shafer just might not have the chops to get the job done. Hope I'm wrong.

I basically agree with all this, but will add that just about anybody would have improved recruiting just due to major renovations, ACC affiliation, and IPF. You can almost argue we have underachieved given the resources now available, but that could be due to low win total, and lack of star power at HC. I think a strong argument could be made that if you brought in any of the top 12 names on the list Whitey posted earlier results would be even better.

In our last 59 games we have only lost 3 times to teams that were ranked 70 or higher in the Sagarin. There is still half a season left so rankings can change but as of right now UVA & USF are our two worst losses in the last 59 games. On the other side we have only beaten one Top 60 team under Shafer and zero Top 50 teams.

Last year is hard to evaluate on O but compared to 2013:

2013 75th in S&P+
2015 76th (pre UVA game)

On D:

2015: 66th (pre UVA)
2014: 33rd
2013: 67th

Statistically we are playing the same as our 2013 team. This is pre UVA though and we have 6 games left. It also doesn't account for the QB injuries this year. On D the difference is that in 2013 we were really good or really bad. This year we are constantly bad.

This has been my biggest concern. It shows HCSS hasn't been able to game plan and scheme his team to victory when being out manned. Let's face it, no matter who we bring in we are never going to out-recruit the top half of our own division so we're going to need someone who can win with less.

 

[Willy75]

In the main, you might be right about needing to recruit better in general overall. But I don't think you're right about Neal, Davis, Clark--those guys are impact players no matter where they end up--and it is pretty clear that recruiting is trending in the right direction. All you have to do is look at the offer lists of the incoming class to confirm that.

Those guys are exceptional recruits. Clark is a universal 5 star. When was the last time we landed one of those? Honest question -- was it Scott Freeney? Dulayne Morgan? It's been about that long. Shafer is an above average recruiter. Football recruits GENERALLY take longer to make an impact than they do in other sports, like basketball. Dungey is definitely reason to get excited, the question is--does the current staff have time to see the foundation they've established come to fruition?

I read that Clark will start school in January. Has he signed a LOI?

 

[CuseOnly]

That stat does not speak to the O Line. They are the weak link and if we had kids that were better they would be playing. UVA D Line ate our lunch in the second half. Robinson in particular looked lost.

I think the OL play is absolutely a result of poor coaching. They seem to have regressed from 2 years ago, Robinson and Trudo were both better as freshman.

 

[RF2044]

I think the OL play is absolutely a result of poor coaching. They seem to have regressed from 2 years ago, Robinson and Trudo were both better as freshman.

Robinson's capabilities were significantly overestimated by the fanbase.

 

[GoSU96]

Robinson's capabilities were significantly overestimated by the fanbase.

Kid has been hurt since summer before last, he's playing on one leg.

He was a left over scholie local recruit, semi favor to Sanfilippo, who was a depth/development guy. The fact that he started his redshirt soph year and played well was a big achievement for him.

Since the bowl thing is in the rear view mirror they need to get on with it an start rotating in the younger guys and get them some snaps. Move Palmer inside and sub out for Foy at times and let's see what the young tackles can do.

 

[cuseguy]

Kid has been hurt since summer before last, he's playing on one leg. He was a left over scholie local recruit, semi favor to Sanfilippo, who was a depth/development guy. The fact that he started his redshirt soph year and played well was a big achievement for him. Since the bowl thing is in the rear view mirror they need to get on with it an start rotating in the younger guys and get them some snaps. Move Palmer inside and sub out for Foy at times and let's see what the young tackles can do.

You know and I know they're not giving up on a bowl yet.

 

[rrlbees]

Since the bowl thing is in the rear view mirror

It ain't over till it's over. I'd fire a coach on the spot if they started playing for next year at 3-3.

 

[TheCusian]

You know and I know they're not giving up on a bowl yet.

Nor should they.