Are we playing big time football in 20 years?

[Hoo's That]

No chance the schools can afford that. Boosters, yes.

A public university couldn't justify that in the budget.

Most public universities are prohibited by state laws from using any state-originated funds for athletics.

 

[IthacaMatt]

It is an interesting question, at least in part because we can't envision what "bigtime" football will look like in 20 years. Things are changing very rapidly and who knows what the eventual ramifications will be.

There was a time when Ivy League schools and Army were a big deal in the football world. That changed. At some point, schools (like SU) transitioned from football being an overblown extra-curricular activity to the cornerstone of the school's "entertainment division." Depending upon what "bigtime" football evolves into, SU may or may not choose to go along for the ride.

At this point, we can speculate on what bigtime football will be in 20 years but the truth is that nobody really knows and in fact, it is likely to be different that what we imagine.

Good perspective, Dick. I think there are 3 big dynamics that will take place within the next 20 years in college football.

(1) the brain injury issue; I foresee a mix of three outcomes here - football slowly loses participants to other sports, much like boxing has seen in the last 40 years, padded helmets and other changes to equipment are mandated, and lawsuits may simply shut down the sport;

(2) the television money; the market dynamics are trending strongly against big contracts continuing to be given to the P5 conferences for this programming. The audience is on so many other media, and there are so many other choices, that ratings can't help but go down. Then what happens to the conferences after they lose, say, 25% of their annual TV money?; and

(3) the overall "college bubble" bursting. Colleges around the country are straining to survive. Oh, not the big state schools, and the best of the private ones with the big endowments. But the education bubble, the willingness of students to continue to incur this significant debt for modest returns in terms of career prospects for many of them. I still feel like lots of colleges are going to close in the next 10 years, let alone 20.

 

[Mareiniss]

... I think there are 3 big dynamics that will take place within the next 20 years in college football.

(1) the brain injury issue; I foresee a mix of three outcomes here - football slowly loses participants to other sports, much like boxing has seen in the last 40 years, padded helmets and other changes to equipment are mandated, and lawsuits may simply shut down the sport; ...

I think the boxing analogy is a good one, even though college boxing was never as popular or lucrative as football. According to this article, intercollegiate boxing was a really big deal in the 1930's, 1940's and 1950's. Some matches drew as many as 15,000 fans, i.e., more than twice what Rutgers averages for men's basketball But injuries and some high profile deaths caused most colleges to rethink their sponsorship of boxing teams, and the NCAA dropped the sport. That happened even though the college boxers were using headgear and heavily padded gloves, and had relatively short matches. According to this article, SU was one of the last schools to drop the sport in the northeast.

I see CTE as the biggest threat to college football. The equipment, concussion protocols and other rules may need to change for the sport to survive at the college level, IMO.

 

[Hoo's That]

I think the boxing analogy is a good one, even though college boxing was never as popular or lucrative as football. According to this article, intercollegiate boxing was a really big deal in the 1930's, 1940's and 1950's. Some matches drew as many as 15,000 fans, i.e., more than twice what Rutgers averages for men's basketball But injuries and some high profile deaths caused most colleges to rethink their sponsorship of boxing teams, and the NCAA dropped the sport. That happened even though the college boxers were using headgear and heavily padded gloves, and had relatively short matches. According to this article, SU was one of the last schools to drop the sport in the northeast.

I see CTE as the biggest threat to college football. The equipment, concussion protocols and other rules may need to change for the sport to survive at the college level, IMO.

UVa was the 1937 NCAA Boxing co-champion (along with WVU). We had intramural boxing into the 70s. Back in the day, our gym was thronged for the matches, both intercollegiate and the intramural championship.

 

[sutomcat]

UVa was the 1937 NCAA Boxing co-champion (along with WVU). We had intramural boxing into the 70s. Back in the day, our gym was thronged for the matches, both intercollegiate and the intramural championship.

View attachment 202674

View attachment 202675

Syracuse won the NC in boxing in 1936 and has produced many individual national championships in the sport. It was once of of our biggest sports as well.

 

[MSOrange]

Syracuse won the NC in boxing in 1936 and has produced many individual national championships in the sport. It was once of of our biggest sports as well.

You beat me by a second. I was just on wikipedia looking at college boxing and saw that.

 

[Hoo's That]

This was posted on our football board. Since it's germane to the topic, I'll post it here. The only comment I can make is that it ventures into the "According to my cousin's girlfriend's brother's barber ..." territory.

Friend of mine who is a professor in a sports administration department at a Midwest university, told me that NCAA is secretly working on a structure for major conferences to allow the creation of a separate football minor professional league covering the schools in the conference.
The minor league teams would be unaffiliated with the conference schools, but would enter into a licensing agreement with the various schools. The teams would be non-profit companies and would hire players who would have to be students in the university. The teams would receive all revenues from tickets and TV. They would pay salaries of all the players ( which would have to cover at least half of their tuition and housing), and all costs of team administration.
The lease fee would be negotiated, but would be roughly the same as the net income football programs now earn.
The net income would be the basis for Title IX team sharing.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I think the boxing analogy is a good one, even though college boxing was never as popular or lucrative as football. According to this article, intercollegiate boxing was a really big deal in the 1930's, 1940's and 1950's. Some matches drew as many as 15,000 fans, i.e., more than twice what Rutgers averages for men's basketball But injuries and some high profile deaths caused most colleges to rethink their sponsorship of boxing teams, and the NCAA dropped the sport. That happened even though the college boxers were using headgear and heavily padded gloves, and had relatively short matches. According to this article, SU was one of the last schools to drop the sport in the northeast.

I see CTE as the biggest threat to college football. The equipment, concussion protocols and other rules may need to change for the sport to survive at the college level, IMO.

I think that for the sport to survive at the college level, colleges have to help advocate for Pop Warner and High School sports, to help THEM make the sport safer, or else parents will take the decision out of the hands of colleges. There will be no pool of recruits (or certainly a greatly diminished pool of recruits).

 

[Roger N]

Have had 2 conversations recently with Patriot and Ivy league alums with family of some rank at the schools, who both hinted that there is smoke that member schools in both leagues would love to drop down but nobody wants to drop first.

Got me thinking about our program and the change$ ahead - how convinced are we as fans that we stay in the game once the new era begins? Culturally, fiscally...our climb is going to get a ton steeper, wonder if we have the ability or interest in staying in when everything shakes out.

It doesn’t seem like we are playing like a big time football school now.

 

[Scooch]

This was posted on our football board. Since it's germane to the topic, I'll post it here. The only comment I can make is that it ventures into the "According to my cousin's girlfriend's brother's barber ..." territory.

The NCAA can’t do anything in “secret”. I appreciate the share but that post is silly on that assertion alone.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

We'll be fine.

Patriot League 1AA yeah who wants to get banged up in practice every day for lower level football.

P5 College Football is the closest thing to NFL/NBA/NHL/MLB outside of pro sports. Its not going anywhere especially now they will let some money flow freely/legally.

Even if the kids are amateurs its basically the pros and the careers are no shorter than NFL ones most NFL players don't spend 5 years on their pro team.

SU has a seat at the table and no reason to give it up. Our program isn't that bad we just can't recruit WRs for some reason. Sadly wasted a D better than the 2018 D last year.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

Yes we will be playing. I believe that there will be another shake up within 10 years that will lead to SU and other power schools to their own governance

I think the shakeup will be seamless with the new rules. Colleges give the kids as little as possible and they get what they get from the allowed channels.

 

[kirbivore]

Good perspective, Dick. I think there are 3 big dynamics that will take place within the next 20 years in college football.

(1) the brain injury issue; I foresee a mix of three outcomes here - football slowly loses participants to other sports, much like boxing has seen in the last 40 years, padded helmets and other changes to equipment are mandated, and lawsuits may simply shut down the sport;

(2) the television money; the market dynamics are trending strongly against big contracts continuing to be given to the P5 conferences for this programming. The audience is on so many other media, and there are so many other choices, that ratings can't help but go down. Then what happens to the conferences after they lose, say, 25% of their annual TV money?; and

(3) the overall "college bubble" bursting. Colleges around the country are straining to survive. Oh, not the big state schools, and the best of the private ones with the big endowments. But the education bubble, the willingness of students to continue to incur this significant debt for modest returns in terms of career prospects for many of them. I still feel like lots of colleges are going to close in the next 10 years, let alone 20.

Pandemic woke people up to the overpriced sham of some colleges and degrees

 

[TheCusian]

If there are eyeballs to watch the NFL (no real signs of slowing down), there will be revenue. If there’s revenue, there will be a minor league football system to prepare HS players for their professional careers.

What that should look like is up for debate. I think if the powers that be don’t get more nimble, they will squander their say.

 

[kirbivore]

It will turn into boxing, where the only participants will be those with a strong familial connection to the game and the most economically desperate.

 

[Hoo's That]

It will turn into boxing, where the only participants will be those with a strong familial connection to the game and the most economically desperate.

Agree. The affluent are already leaving. The Ivies may be the first ones to go, since it will become more and more difficult for them to find players.

 

[All4SU]

Will there be “big time” higher education by then? Will remote learning erode the system? Will colleges become nothing more than corporate entities, e.g. Coke University at Syracuse.

 

[SU68]

Most public universities are prohibited by state laws from using any state-originated funds for athletics.

Don't tell that to UConn. They run a deficit north of $43 million.

UConn athletic budget deficit increases to $43.5 million

The deficit is slightly higher than the $42.3 million from the year before and remains...

www.nhregister.com