As of now, we'll go 12-6 in ACC

[Quazzum69]

Only five games have been played against mostly minimal competition but they have been very telling.
Naturally, one can predict how well the team will do in league play from how they do in the out-of-conference games.

Based on margin of victory and other information from only non-league games (no exhibitions), here are my estimated number of conference (Big East) wins vs actual wins since 2000-01 (I removed last season since Southerland was out for so many games and it was just strange overall). Nine of the 11 seasons were either correct or just one win off; two seasons (2005-06 and 2011-12) were off by three wins. With this model, I would predict SU to finish 12-6 in the ACC based on the first five games, but very unlikely to be better than 14-4 once the ACC starts.

There is no information included regarding who the opponent is and their strength for both pre-league and league games. There is also no consideration of where the games - both OOC and league - are played (because Syracuse never leaves home, obviously). Only difference in points and other minimal observations that ignore OOC opponent were used. People should be concerned that we only beat Colgate by 19 - SU hasn't beaten Colgate by less than 25 since the 2005-06 season and in the previous five seasons have averaged a 41-point advantage.

I don't know if this will be true in the ACC but the pre-league schedule is not much different than years past, which is probably why such a simple model holds up. Here's to blowing out Binghamton, High Point and Eastern Michigan to get these numbers up!

 

[Trueblue25]

It's too early in the season to tell. After facing Minnesota, Cali, Possibly Baylor/Zaga, Indiana and Nova...we'll be ready for the ACC.

I'm worried about UNC. Duke seems very one dimensional and I think we can break them down.

 

[wallacecuse]

Only five games have been played against mostly minimal competition but they have been very telling.
Naturally, one can predict how well the team will do in league play from how they do in the out-of-conference games.

Based on margin of victory and other information from only non-league games (no exhibitions), here are my estimated number of conference (Big East) wins vs actual wins since 2000-01 (I removed last season since Southerland was out for so many games and it was just strange overall). Nine of the 11 seasons were either correct or just one win off; two seasons (2005-06 and 2011-12) were off by three wins. With this model, I would predict SU to finish 12-6 in the ACC based on the first five games, but very unlikely to be better than 14-4 once the ACC starts.

View attachment 5739

There is no information included regarding who the opponent is and their strength for both pre-league and league games. There is also no consideration of where the games - both OOC and league - are played (because Syracuse never leaves home, obviously). Only difference in points and other minimal observations that ignore OOC opponent were used. People should be concerned that we only beat Colgate by 19 - SU hasn't beaten Colgate by less than 25 since the 2005-06 season and in the previous five seasons have averaged a 41-point advantage.

I don't know if this will be true in the ACC but the pre-league schedule is not much different than years past, which is probably why such a simple model holds up. Here's to blowing out Binghamton, High Point and Eastern Michigan to get these numbers up!

Margin of victory is the most useless stat in sports. It is ostensibly attempting to use the transitive property to predict wins. After beating Louisville, I predict UNC will win 15+ ACC games...oh wait, they lost at home to Belmont...

 

[Cusefannotindc]

With only 11 observations, using more than one independent variable is probably overfitting. You should only have 1 independent per 10 observations.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Margin of victory is the most useless stat in sports. It is ostensibly attempting to use the transitive property to predict wins. After beating Louisville, I predict UNC will win 15+ ACC games...oh wait, they lost at home to Belmont...

Not true, while it has diminishing returns, margin of victory matters. Sagarin complained about this in an interview a few months ago because they are not allowed to include MoV in computer models in football to prevent teams from running up the score.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Lol are you a global warming researcher during the day?

 

[Oakland]

Only five games have been played against mostly minimal competition but they have been very telling.
Naturally, one can predict how well the team will do in league play from how they do in the out-of-conference games.

Based on margin of victory and other information from only non-league games (no exhibitions), here are my estimated number of conference (Big East) wins vs actual wins since 2000-01 (I removed last season since Southerland was out for so many games and it was just strange overall). Nine of the 11 seasons were either correct or just one win off; two seasons (2005-06 and 2011-12) were off by three wins. With this model, I would predict SU to finish 12-6 in the ACC based on the first five games, but very unlikely to be better than 14-4 once the ACC starts.

View attachment 5739

There is no information included regarding who the opponent is and their strength for both pre-league and league games. There is also no consideration of where the games - both OOC and league - are played (because Syracuse never leaves home, obviously). Only difference in points and other minimal observations that ignore OOC opponent were used. People should be concerned that we only beat Colgate by 19 - SU hasn't beaten Colgate by less than 25 since the 2005-06 season and in the previous five seasons have averaged a 41-point advantage.

I don't know if this will be true in the ACC but the pre-league schedule is not much different than years past, which is probably why such a simple model holds up. Here's to blowing out Binghamton, High Point and Eastern Michigan to get these numbers up!

This has occurred to me after a number of seasons, so I can easily see that it might have some predictive meaning. After seeing the team today, I wish I had predicted 3 less wins for the season, which is in line with your model.

 

[OttoMets]

Interesting.

Some of us have noticed a correlation between margin of victory and eventual winning percentage. We'll see where it goes - we've struggled, but there's a lot of potential for improvement and the ACC looks rather weak to me. Could be one of those aberration years.

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah in general margin of victory is a huge predictor.

For whatever it's worth, Kenpom has us going 12-6 as well. The game yesterday jumped us 14 places in Kenpom, from 27 up to 13. Probably tells you it's a little early in the season to be looking at this stuff.

 

[Marsh01]

We will do better than 12-6.

 

[cusetown1]

We will do better than 12-6.

And that doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out .

 

[Eric15]

13-5 in conference is my personal goal for this team. That would put us on solid ground for a 3 seed in the tourney, with an ability to move up with a good ACC tourney showing.

 

[CaptainSyracuse]

Only five games have been played against mostly minimal competition but they have been very telling.
Naturally, one can predict how well the team will do in league play from how they do in the out-of-conference games.

Based on margin of victory and other information from only non-league games (no exhibitions), here are my estimated number of conference (Big East) wins vs actual wins since 2000-01 (I removed last season since Southerland was out for so many games and it was just strange overall). Nine of the 11 seasons were either correct or just one win off; two seasons (2005-06 and 2011-12) were off by three wins. With this model, I would predict SU to finish 12-6 in the ACC based on the first five games, but very unlikely to be better than 14-4 once the ACC starts.

View attachment 5739

There is no information included regarding who the opponent is and their strength for both pre-league and league games. There is also no consideration of where the games - both OOC and league - are played (because Syracuse never leaves home, obviously). Only difference in points and other minimal observations that ignore OOC opponent were used. People should be concerned that we only beat Colgate by 19 - SU hasn't beaten Colgate by less than 25 since the 2005-06 season and in the previous five seasons have averaged a 41-point advantage.

I don't know if this will be true in the ACC but the pre-league schedule is not much different than years past, which is probably why such a simple model holds up. Here's to blowing out Binghamton, High Point and Eastern Michigan to get these numbers up!

This season is so different than other years that I believe the Colgate score is very misleading. We should be a totally different team by the end of the year. Not only is our point guard a freshman but also Grant is going from a little used player to one of our most important starters. Grant's illness during the summer I believe is hindering him also. We will be fine.

 

[texascpa]

I predict 16-2. One loss to Duke and one to Pitt.

 

[OttoMets]

I predict 16-2. One loss to Duke and one to Pitt.

I think that's the baseline - really difficult to see us sweeping either of those teams.

After that -- and I haven't been too impressed by our play so far -- it's hard to find a ton of likely losses. I'm sure we'll sneak in a What loss or three, but it's not a very tough schedule.

 

[two3zone]

I have us 12-6 in the prediction thread. That's still a hell of a record, if we do better great, if we don't oh well, this is the type of team that could do great in the tournament. Especially if the defense clicks at the right moment.

 

[Knicks411]

I think that's the baseline - really difficult to see us sweeping either of those teams.

After that -- and I haven't been too impressed by our play so far -- it's hard to find a ton of likely losses. I'm sure we'll sneak in a What loss or three, but it's not a very tough schedule.

For some reason I had it in my mind that we were also going to UNC. I'm an idiot. But the roadies are UVA/Duke/Pitt should all be really tough games to win. Just looking at the page on Pomeroy, he also has us road dogs right now to FSU and Maryland (1 point each, so not a huge dog or anything, and that could easily change in the next 3 months before those games happen). But we will also probably be favored in our first 10 ACC games.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Only five games have been played against mostly minimal competition but they have been very telling.
Naturally, one can predict how well the team will do in league play from how they do in the out-of-conference games.

Based on margin of victory and other information from only non-league games (no exhibitions), here are my estimated number of conference (Big East) wins vs actual wins since 2000-01 (I removed last season since Southerland was out for so many games and it was just strange overall). Nine of the 11 seasons were either correct or just one win off; two seasons (2005-06 and 2011-12) were off by three wins. With this model, I would predict SU to finish 12-6 in the ACC based on the first five games, but very unlikely to be better than 14-4 once the ACC starts.

View attachment 5739

There is no information included regarding who the opponent is and their strength for both pre-league and league games. There is also no consideration of where the games - both OOC and league - are played (because Syracuse never leaves home, obviously). Only difference in points and other minimal observations that ignore OOC opponent were used. People should be concerned that we only beat Colgate by 19 - SU hasn't beaten Colgate by less than 25 since the 2005-06 season and in the previous five seasons have averaged a 41-point advantage.

I don't know if this will be true in the ACC but the pre-league schedule is not much different than years past, which is probably why such a simple model holds up. Here's to blowing out Binghamton, High Point and Eastern Michigan to get these numbers up!

Nice chart. Do you even lift, bro?

 

[OttoMets]

For some reason I had it in my mind that we were also going to UNC. I'm an idiot. But the roadies are UVA/Duke/Pitt should all be really tough games to win. Just looking at the page on Pomeroy, he also has us road dogs right now to FSU and Maryland (1 point each, so not a huge dog or anything, and that could easily change in the next 3 months before those games happen). But we will also probably be favored in our first 10 ACC games.

I thought the same - could swear that we had a home-and-home when they announced the matchups last summer.

Maryland will be tough - at times it's been a nasty place to play, and I believe it's a Big Monday game after our Saturday game in Durham (I have us losing that one, plus Duke, Pitt, and TBA and going 14-4 in the league). Still, it's no different than Gampel or the Bradley Center or Yum as the second game of a Saturday-Monday. Excited to see what transpires, because this schedule looks really forgiving on paper.

 

[Knicks411]

It looks like the kind of schedule where we can pile up a really impressive record early in the year. Like I said, just looking at the first ten games, we'll be pretty strong favorites in each of them. (Pomeroy has us 60% or better to win all but one, the home game against Pitt, which is about 56%. And the Pomeroy ratings always seem to be a little too high on Pitt, so maybe bump them over 60% too. Though to be fair they have Duke 28th right now, so take that for what it's worth).

But 2 huge games, to me, will be the roadies I mentioned before, FSU and Maryland. I expect road losses to Pitt, Duke, and UVA (not saying we will for sure lose, but I can easily see all of them as losses, so let's go with that). FSU and Maryland probably won't be great teams, but they should be pretty solid, NCAA type teams, and road games there (especially Maryland) are always tough. But we could enter that game @Pitt sitting at 9-1, and that could include wins over Duke/Pitt/UNC (for tiebreaker purposes)

 

[Trueblue25]

18-0

 

[AccuRater]

Only five games have been played against mostly minimal competition but they have been very telling.
Naturally, one can predict how well the team will do in league play from how they do in the out-of-conference games.

Based on margin of victory and other information from only non-league games (no exhibitions), here are my estimated number of conference (Big East) wins vs actual wins since 2000-01 (I removed last season since Southerland was out for so many games and it was just strange overall). Nine of the 11 seasons were either correct or just one win off; two seasons (2005-06 and 2011-12) were off by three wins. With this model, I would predict SU to finish 12-6 in the ACC based on the first five games, but very unlikely to be better than 14-4 once the ACC starts.

View attachment 5739

There is no information included regarding who the opponent is and their strength for both pre-league and league games. There is also no consideration of where the games - both OOC and league - are played (because Syracuse never leaves home, obviously). Only difference in points and other minimal observations that ignore OOC opponent were used. People should be concerned that we only beat Colgate by 19 - SU hasn't beaten Colgate by less than 25 since the 2005-06 season and in the previous five seasons have averaged a 41-point advantage.

I don't know if this will be true in the ACC but the pre-league schedule is not much different than years past, which is probably why such a simple model holds up. Here's to blowing out Binghamton, High Point and Eastern Michigan to get these numbers up!

What is the equation? Simple correlation between MOV and wins? What is the intercept? Slope?