As of today, our overall SOS is worse than Wichita State's

[SoBeCuse]

Does this team have some flaws? Yes. Have they been struggling at times? Yes. Welcome to watered down bball in the 2010's there aren't great teams like there were in the 80's and 90's. AZ has struggled at times as well its just the way it is. We have managed to win all our games even with our struggles and flaws. Only CJ & Baye are really finished products on our team and Fair is in a new role.

Could we have played a better schedule? Yes.
Have we done the best we could do against that schedule? Yes 19-0 we won them all.

Kansas has 4 losses against a great schedule do you think we would have 4 losses against that schedule? I don't.
Do you think Kansas would be undefeated against our schedule? I don't.

Its one thing to be cautious and point out things we need to get better at but if you honestly feel at 19-0 this year that we aren't all that good and probably not a top 5 team when do you ever let yourself enjoy being a fan.

Personally I think the best thing about our team is that it is morphing into an Ennis/Grant offensive team at times that will give CJ more opportunity to play in that complimentary role where he is great and is also his best chance at being successful at the next level. I see CJ still being the man but being able to be much more efficient for periods during the game while teams make adjustments or game plans to stop Grant and Ennis while still keeping track of Cooney and being at least honest on Rakeem.

Agreed. This is a good thing. It makes sense to have Grant attack more off the bounce for instance since he is better than CJ at it. He's not going to get rejected either. CJ sticking to his bread and butter will be just fine. Timely dagger shots and mid-range smoothness. In regards to Saturday; I would think that if they play the lineup sans Plumlee then Rak and Grant should be able to do damage inside.

 

[jordoo]

Agreed. This is a good thing. It makes sense to have Grant attack more off the bounce for instance since he is better than CJ at it. He's not going to get rejected either. CJ sticking to his bread and butter will be just fine. Timely dagger shots and mid-range smoothness. In regards to Saturday; I would think that if they play the lineup sans Plumlee then Rak and Grant should be able to do damage inside.

That is what I think Saturday as well. Cooney and CJ can basically be decoys running screens popping out deep to stretch the d leaving Grant or Rak free for Ennis to find 1 on 1 near the basket. Then Cooney and CJ can get their shots off this action later when Duke has to adjust plus it means that Hood and Parker are going to either pick up fouls our those two will score on them.

 

[Waltdods]

Turn the same microscope back on every team currently ranked and you will find we are right at the top. You are more critical of SU with zero losses than you are KU with 4. Yes they played a better schedule but they lost 4 of those games. Again do you feel that Kansas would be undefeated against our schedule? Do you feel we would have 4 losses against their schedule? These are obviously hard to answer because matchups and venues are subjective as are the relative strengths of teams and level of teams play as we go through the season. I understand that but if you looked at Kansas the way you look at SU you would be pointing out not just the losses by why they lost. You would be pointing out the injuries on other good teams they have played. You would be pointing out the huge BiG12 ref bias they have had for years not just at home but also on the road. You can say that's BS but it plays into the early exits in the NCAA's which is proof in the pudding IMO. BTW KU is always one of the most talented 4/5 teams as is UK but talent doesn't mean they will realize it. Point the same microscope at other teams be fair and I think you will see its pretty hard logically not to have SU a top5 team overall.

I regret bringing Kansas into this discussion as it is obviously obscuring more than it is illuminating. That was my fault.

Generally, I have been trying to make a narrow point but that narrowness doesn't seem to survive even when quoted. My narrow point is "we don't know yet if this is a top 5 team." But you've reinterpreted this as "SU is not a top 5 team." I think we deserve the rating we have (as I said in my first post in the thread). What I don't think is that the team has done enough - as of today, January 28 - that anyone can say with a particularly high degree of confidence that Syracuse is definitely one of the top 5 teams in the country. The schedule's just been too easy.

 

[jordoo]

I regret bringing Kansas into this discussion as it is obviously obscuring more than it is illuminating. That was my fault.

Generally, I have been trying to make a narrow point but that narrowness doesn't seem to survive even when quoted. My narrow point is "we don't know yet if this is a top 5 team." But you've reinterpreted this as "SU is not a top 5 team." I think we deserve the rating we have (as I said in my first post in the thread). What I don't think is that the team has done enough - as of today, January 28 - that anyone can say with a particularly high degree of confidence that Syracuse is definitely one of the top 5 teams in the country. The schedule's just been too easy.

OK lets simplify it. Do you think SU is one of the best 5 teams in the country? I do. There I'm on the record and no more of this we don't know because we don't know for sure about any of the teams out there. I know you think 4 loss Kansas is one of the best five teams not that we really know that either but do you think the team you area fan of which is 19-0 is one of the best 5 teams in the country? Your so called narrow point can be applied to any team but you only apply it to SU which is my point and it isn't narrow.

 

[tbonezone]

couple points here imo.
1. i ain't even thinking about saturday match ups .the oldest cliche in the book but true.
2. wichita state should actually be dropping spots in the polls after wins for playing wussies.

 

[Waltdods]

OK lets simplify it. Do you think SU is one of the best 5 teams in the country? I do. There I'm on the record and no more of this we don't know because we don't know for sure about any of the teams out there. I know you think 4 loss Kansas is one of the best five teams not that we really know that either but do you think the team you area fan of which is 19-0 is one of the best 5 teams in the country? Your so called narrow point can be applied to any team but you only apply it to SU which is my point and it isn't narrow.

Do I think SU is one of the best 5 teams in the country? Probably. I think the top 5 teams are some combination of Arizona, Kansas, Syracuse, Florida, Michigan, Michigan State, and Wichita State, with Duke and Kentucky having a chance to join that group.

But the - again narrow - point I am trying to make (obviously unsuccessfully) is that we don't know as much about this team as we might think we do, because the schedule has been weak so far.

(Incidentally, this is casting no blame - the OOC schedule was very good on paper and it's not SU's fault that the ACC schedule is so backloaded.)

 

[jordoo]

Do I think SU is one of the best 5 teams in the country? Probably. I think the top 5 teams are some combination of Arizona, Kansas, Syracuse, Florida, Michigan, Michigan State, and Wichita State, with Duke and Kentucky having a chance to join that group.

But the - again narrow - point I am trying to make (obviously unsuccessfully) is that we don't know as much about this team as we might think we do, because the schedule has been weak so far.

(Incidentally, this is casting no blame - the OOC schedule was very good on paper and it's not SU's fault that the ACC schedule is so backloaded.)

You have failed miserably to answer the question. AGAIN your narrow point is falls apart when others in your conglomeration of 5 have multiple losses against admittedly better schedules.

 

[Waltdods]

You have failed miserably to answer the question. AGAIN your narrow point is falls apart when others in your conglomeration of 5 have multiple losses against admittedly better schedules.

I feel like we're not communicating terribly well here. I'm not sure what my "conglomeration of 5" is?

 

[jordoo]

I feel like we're not communicating terribly well here. I'm not sure what my "conglomeration of 5" is?

You named 10 teams not 5 and you still did not definitively said weather or not you think SU is a top 5 team. BTW UK is not a top 5 team at all. There best win is Lville and Prov if you look at these teams like you do SU you would see this. The point of my question was to make it simple but you refuse to and you are hedging.

SU top five team in your opinion? Yes or No? You can only chose one with no qualifiers.

 

[Jack Hall]

Kansas has played the toughest schedule in the country and is the most talented team in the country.

Arizona has won @ SD State, @ Michigan, @ UCLA, and beat Duke at MSG. SD State, Michigan, and Duke are all probably going to be top-3 seeds. Syracuse has not yet played a team anywhere near that caliber outside the Carrier Dome (neither has Florida, for that matter).

Just to be clear about what I'm saying - I think, as of today January 28, we have seen enough from Kansas and Arizona to know they are 2 of the top 5 college basketball teams in the country. I don't think we can say the same thing for a team that doesn't have a single road win against a team that will make the NCAA tournament. We'll know more soon enough, obviously.

Look, it was only three years ago that Syracuse started 18-0 and then lost its next four games. I think this year's team is better than that squad (which was a good team but obviously not a top-5 team), but every thing that's said about this year's team could have been said about that team too at the same point of the season.

sounds like you think KU is the best team in the country when you claim most talented because the team w the most nba players will likely prove to be UK not KU. so looks like you have some bias in your statement. cant wait to get to get to ncaas to find out the actual National Champs as opposed to the paper champs. i like our chances. Go Cuse!!

 

[Jack Hall]

You named 10 teams not 5 and you still did not definitively said weather or not you think SU is a top 5 team. BTW UK is not a top 5 team at all. There best win is Lville and Prov if you look at these teams like you do SU you would see this. The point of my question was to make it simple but you refuse to and you are hedging.

SU top five team in your opinion? Yes or No? You can only chose one with no qualifiers.

maybe he hasnt watched any games to have an opinion, as it appears you can only look at road game results in the newspaper/internet to answer your question?

 

[Eagles20]

I regret bringing Kansas into this discussion as it is obviously obscuring more than it is illuminating. That was my fault.

Generally, I have been trying to make a narrow point but that narrowness doesn't seem to survive even when quoted. My narrow point is "we don't know yet if this is a top 5 team." But you've reinterpreted this as "SU is not a top 5 team." I think we deserve the rating we have (as I said in my first post in the thread). What I don't think is that the team has done enough - as of today, January 28 - that anyone can say with a particularly high degree of confidence that Syracuse is definitely one of the top 5 teams in the country. The schedule's just been too easy.

Being objective isn't a smart thing to do here... You will get murdered for questioning the team. I understand your point that you are trying to make. There have been games where they coasted during stretches and games got close. That is frustrating.

In my eyes after seeing all the top teams...they deserve to be where they are at. They have proven themselves against all competitors and finished every game strong which is the recipe for a successful team. This teams chemistry is what makes them top 5 in my eyes.

When in doubt just say , F Georgetown, or F ESPN. Everyone seems to love that.

 

[Waltdods]

You named 10 teams not 5 and you still did not definitively said weather or not you think SU is a top 5 team. BTW UK is not a top 5 team at all. There best win is Lville and Prov if you look at these teams like you do SU you would see this. The point of my question was to make it simple but you refuse to and you are hedging.

SU top five team in your opinion? Yes or No? You can only chose one with no qualifiers.

I mean, the entire point of my post is that I don't know whether Syracuse is a top 5 team. So I totally agree that I'm refusing to answer your question.

If the question is: Would I rank Syracuse in the top 5 right now, the answer is definitely yes. The rankings are what the rankings are, and Syracuse deserves to be ranked #2. Does that work for you?

 

[jordoo]

I mean, the entire point of my post is that I don't know whether Syracuse is a top 5 team. So I totally agree that I'm refusing to answer your question.

If the question is: Would I rank Syracuse in the top 5 right now, the answer is definitely yes. The rankings are what the rankings are, and Syracuse deserves to be ranked #2. Does that work for you?

I will try one last time. Who do you think the top 5 teams are right now? How can you ever know if you think SU is a top 5 team if you don't know who you think the top 5 are that SU would or would not be among?

Of course we really don't know and even the final seasons results aren't necessarily the end all be all that will tell us for sure. My issue is that you won't turn your microscope elsewhere and compare other teams by there weaknesses, instead you sight their strengths but SU is held in the maybe against is weaknesses. You use misdirection instead of comparing other teams as critically and talk about miscommunication, not being able to know were we deserve to be ranked. Your we don't know for sure point is kind of pointless if you aren't going to look at teams using the same critical eye so rather than continue to try and get you to do that I have asked you some simple questions which you again refuse to do.

 

[jncuse]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

Projected Final SOS
Syracuse 61
Wichita St 105

Projected Final Non-Conference SOS
Syracuse 123
Wichita St 42

The big difference is not driven by top games. Its actually the bottom of the schedule that is driving this. Baylor, Indiana and St. John's struggling is not the critical factor. We actually have a higher portion of top 100 games.

Wichita St Worst OOC Projected RPI games (only 3 sub 150 out of 12) = 163, 166, 326
Syracuse (6 sub 150 out of 13) = 168, 196, 236, 258,330,334

Put it this way
A schedule of 1,10,200,300 would likely generate an easier SOS of 90,95,100,105.

For a top 25 team the first schedule is harder. But oddly, for a team with an RPI of 150, the second schedule is harder because they may only win one games.

RPI does spits some silly stuff that may not reflect reality.

 

[Waltdods]

I will try one last time. Who do you think the top 5 teams are right now? How can you ever know if you think SU is a top 5 team if you don't know who you think the top 5 are that SU would or would not be among?

Of course we really don't know and even the final seasons results aren't necessarily the end all be all that will tell us for sure. My issue is that you won't turn your microscope elsewhere and compare other teams by there weaknesses, instead you sight their strengths but SU is held in the maybe against is weaknesses. You use misdirection instead of comparing other teams as critically and talk about miscommunication, not being able to know were we deserve to be ranked. Your we don't know for sure point is kind of pointless if you aren't going to look at teams using the same critical eye so rather than continue to try and get you to do that I have asked you some simple answers which you again refuse to do.

I think you're reading a lot more criticism into this than I am really giving. I think Syracuse is a really good team. I think they are definitely a top-15 team, almost certainly a top-10 team and probably a top-5 team. I think the fairly weak schedule (again, this is nothing about Syracuse's "weaknesses") means we don't have enough information to make a definitive determination.

Look, I take your point that "top-5" (or whatever) is inherently relative - you need to compare to other teams to make that judgment. I agree with that. As I said several posts earlier, you are right that I was hypocritical in the way I talked about Kansas (in my defense, they'll have the top-2 picks in the most loaded draft in a decade).

But let me try one more time to get my point across. The '09-10 and '11-12 teams were definitely top 5 teams. Right? And as we talk today, are you totally convinced that this year's team is at that level? My point is that I'm still not sure - the next few weeks will tell us a lot. I don't see this as a particularly negative point.

 

[jncuse]

This is one of the reasons I like KP. It gives us numbers that adjust for the schedule accurately.

KP ranks us #3- and that system does not capture our clutch play either. With the eye test, a 19-0 record, some key wins, and KP not showing data that suggests we may not be elite... there is no doubt we are a top 5 team, despite our limited schedule to date.

 

[PoppyHart]

I will try one last time. Who do you think the top 5 teams are right now? How can you ever know if you think SU is a top 5 team if you don't know who you think the top 5 are that SU would or would not be among?

Of course we really don't know and even the final seasons results aren't necessarily the end all be all that will tell us for sure. My issue is that you won't turn your microscope elsewhere and compare other teams by there weaknesses, instead you sight their strengths but SU is held in the maybe against is weaknesses. You use misdirection instead of comparing other teams as critically and talk about miscommunication, not being able to know were we deserve to be ranked. Your we don't know for sure point is kind of pointless if you aren't going to look at teams using the same critical eye so rather than continue to try and get you to do that I have asked you some simple questions which you again refuse to do.

He's simply saying that there is, at least in his opinion, a better understanding of other teams due to their schedules and resumes. Alternatively, he believes the jury is still out for most teams, but that he has seen enough of Kansas and Zona to pass judgment.

 

[jordoo]

I think you're reading a lot more criticism into this than I am really giving. I think Syracuse is a really good team. I think they are definitely a top-15 team, almost certainly a top-10 team and probably a top-5 team. I think the fairly weak schedule (again, this is nothing about Syracuse's "weaknesses") means we don't have enough information to make a definitive determination.

Look, I take your point that "top-5" (or whatever) is inherently relative - you need to compare to other teams to make that judgment. I agree with that. As I said several posts earlier, you are right that I was hypocritical in the way I talked about Kansas (in my defense, they'll have the top-2 picks in the most loaded draft in a decade).

But let me try one more time to get my point across. The '09-10 and '11-12 teams were definitely top 5 teams. Right? And as we talk today, are you totally convinced that this year's team is at that level? My point is that I'm still not sure - the next few weeks will tell us a lot. I don't see this as a particularly negative point.

Who is ahead of them in the top 5 if SU is not one of them as you have just said probably. Make your list and look at each team just as critically as I have continued to ask. Your relative maybe, probably, you can't know stuff is just a bunch of fluffy nothing until you do this equally across the board to the other teams that you believe are probably better. Do this and then you can come back to us with an answer and be sure. If you cannot tell me 5 teams you think are better and then compare them all in the same manor against SU then you might as well redundantly chase your own tail. By your own account above your origin point is kind of BS if you don't do this since things are relative to the other top teams each season. This is all to make my point that SU is a top5 team when you are fair in your critical judgment of the teams we are looking at. You will never know if you don't, why you don't want to know is beyond me. If you haven't looked at the other teams as critically then of course you won't be sure.

The latest Kansas point is a classic sacrificial lamb in this argument at this point. You have already lost on this point earlier in the debate so you concede to look reasonable and thus willing to compromise. Its a very good strategy and well done.

 

[jordoo]

He's simply saying that there is, at least in his opinion, a better understanding of other teams due to their schedules and resumes. Alternatively, he believes the jury is still out for most teams, but that he has seen enough of Kansas and Zona to pass judgment.

But he only sights there positives while refusing to look at them critically as he is with SU. That kind of what we have been back and forth on.

 

[Waltdods]

Who is ahead of them in the top 5 if SU is not one of them as you have just said probably. Make your list and look at each team just as critically as I have continued to ask. Your relative maybe, probably, you can't know stuff is just a bunch of fluffy nothing until you do this equally across the board to the other teams that you believe are probably better. Do this and then you can come back to us with an answer and be sure. If you cannot tell me 5 teams you think are better and then compare them all in the same manor against SU then you might as well redundantly chase your own tail. By your own account above your origin point is kind of BS if you don't do this since things are relative to the other top teams each season. This is all to make my point that SU is a top5 team when you are fair in your critical judgment of the teams we are looking at. You will never know if you don't, why you don't want to know is beyond me. If you haven't looked at the other teams as critically then of course you won't be sure.

The latest Kansas point is a classic sacrificial lamb in this argument at this point. You have already lost on this point earlier in the debate so you concede to look reasonable and thus willing to compromise. Its a very good strategy and well done.

I have not said I think any team is better. I said there are two teams - Kansas and Arizona - that I am confident saying today are two of the top 5 teams in the country. Arizona has two excellent wins away from home, another good win, and a Duke win at MSG. That's really good! I'm confident that a team with that resume at this point in the season is one of the best 5 teams in the country, especially because the remainder of their schedule isn't as tough as the first part of it. Kansas is, admittedly, a harder argument. They've lost a bunch of games. Their point guard situation isn't quite as good as you'd like. But they've looked scary good recently, are hugely talented, and also already have some great wins.

That said, you are right that Kansas probably would not meet the same standard I applied to Syracuse. So I'm willing to remove them from my list of 2, reducing it to a list of 1- just Arizona. So then I would say only one team, Arizona, has clearly established that it is a top-5 team so far this year.

 

[jordoo]

I have not said I think any team is better. I said there are two teams - Kansas and Arizona - that I am confident saying today are two of the top 5 teams in the country. Arizona has two excellent wins away from home, another good win, and a Duke win at MSG. That's really good! I'm confident that a team with that resume at this point in the season is one of the best 5 teams in the country, especially because the remainder of their schedule isn't as tough as the first part of it. Kansas is, admittedly, a harder argument. They've lost a bunch of games. Their point guard situation isn't quite as good as you'd like. But they've looked scary good recently, are hugely talented, and also already have some great wins.

That said, you are right that Kansas probably would not meet the same standard I applied to Syracuse. So I'm willing to remove them from my list of 2, reducing it to a list of 1- just Arizona. So then I would say only one team, Arizona, has clearly established that it is a top-5 team so far this year.

See that was easy. now you simply have to find 4 more teams that stand up to that criteria that you used for SU. I believe you will find that hard to do

 

[Jack Hall]

This is one of the reasons I like KP. It gives us numbers that adjust for the schedule accurately.

KP ranks us #3- and that system does not capture our clutch play either. With the eye test, a 19-0 record, some key wins, and KP not showing data that suggests we may not be elite... there is no doubt we are a top 5 team, despite our limited schedule to date.

youre wrong all

I have not said I think any team is better. I said there are two teams - Kansas and Arizona - that I am confident saying today are two of the top 5 teams in the country. Arizona has two excellent wins away from home, another good win, and a Duke win at MSG. That's really good! I'm confident that a team with that resume at this point in the season is one of the best 5 teams in the country, especially because the remainder of their schedule isn't as tough as the first part of it. Kansas is, admittedly, a harder argument. They've lost a bunch of games. Their point guard situation isn't quite as good as you'd like. But they've looked scary good recently, are hugely talented, and also already have some great wins.

That said, you are right that Kansas probably would not meet the same standard I applied to Syracuse. So I'm willing to remove them from my list of 2, reducing it to a list of 1- just Arizona. So then I would say only one team, Arizona, has clearly established that it is a top-5 team so far this year.

these schedule arguments dont make much sense to me, first you infer KU is top five because they have played the toughest schedule. then you say au is "the best 5 teams in the country, especially because the remainder of their schedule isn't as tough as the first part of it." which one is it? to me the best teams are what they are regardless of schedule.

 

[Jack Hall]

youre wrong all

these schedule arguments dont make much sense to me, first you infer KU is top five because they have played the toughest schedule. then you say au is "the best 5 teams in the country, especially because the remainder of their schedule isn't as tough as the first part of it." which one is it? to me the best teams are what they are regardless of schedule.

disregard "youre wrong all" . dont know where that came from

 

[Knicks411]

This is one of the reasons I like KP. It gives us numbers that adjust for the schedule accurately.

KP ranks us #3- and that system does not capture our clutch play either. With the eye test, a 19-0 record, some key wins, and KP not showing data that suggests we may not be elite... there is no doubt we are a top 5 team, despite our limited schedule to date.

I agree with this; there has been a lot of talk about how we have a lot of close wins and all that, but Ken Pom is puarely based on scoring margin and opponent strength; we're #2 there. (Creighton dropped a few spots last night, I believe)
As much as I like to rely on the KP data, I will admit it isn't 100% accurate, because nothing is. But I think all the talk of the close wins is kind of a red herring. Even just looking at our MOV, we are one of the very best teams in the country.