At #2 (probably) in Coaches Poll @ Week 8

[Quazzum69]

Syracuse has an 81% chance of being a one or two seed in the tournament. If that's not an awesome enough holiday gift for you, they have a 65% chance of advancing to at least the Elite Eight and a 47% chance of going to the Final Four. This is based on the past ten seasons of USA Today Coaches Polls at week 8. In general, there is a 27% decrease in the odds of being a one/two seed for each increase in rank in the week 8 poll.

If Duke stays at number eight next week, they'll have a 39% chance of being a one or two seed, a 25% chance of an elite eight or better and only a 9% chance of a final four!

 

[pfister1]

We were unranked in Week 8 of the 2002 AP Poll. Worked out pretty well.

Top 4 in that week's poll
1. Alabama
2. Pittsburgh
3. Duke
4. Arizona

Full Poll

 

[HoustonCuse]

Roll Tide.

 

[cto]

We were unranked in Week 8 of the 2002 AP Poll. Worked out pretty well.

Top 4 in that week's poll
1. Alabama
2. Pittsburgh
3. Duke
4. Arizona

Full Poll

And the Final Four teams were 7th, 18th, unranked and unranked in that poll. Shows how important these December polls are.

 

[Quazzum69]

And the Final Four teams were 7th, 18th, unranked and unranked in that poll. Shows how important these December polls are.

How many unranked teams in week eight have gone on to the final four since then? In the past ten years 24 times out of 100 teams in the top ten at week eight have gone to the final four - that's 24% (it's about 50% for teams ranked one or two at week 8). What about teams out of the top ten?

Let's say there are 350 teams eligible for the tournament and there are 16 available final four spots left (from 10 * 4 - 24 top ten teams @ week 8). So at best, non-top ten teams at week eight have gone to the final four at a rate of 16/(340*10) or a half a percent. But probably most of those teams are ranked from 11-25 at week 8 so the chance that an unranked team at week 8 goes to the final four becomes absurdly low. There are significant differences even within the top ten.

2002-2003 is practically the Stone Age in terms of how coaches evaluate other teams; I would think coaches are getting better at ranking other teams with so many ranking systems to draw from (Sagarin, Kenpom, etc.) and easily accessible game tapes.

Besides, they have an effect on two huge components of the program: convey prestige to recruits (#2 in the country looks a whole lot better than "we have to wait and see until March") and to drive ticket sales. More people go to games against "better" teams, even if better is defined by an imperfect ranking system. More people will be in the Dome to see #8 Villanova against #2 Syracuse than Villanova against Syracuse, even if it's December.