Babers is exactly average according to SRS

[Millhouse]

Our peer set is P5 not FBS.

Data doesn’t matter when the base proposition is obviously subpar. That’s it.

I don't know what you're saying here.

Who are our peers in your opinion? Will be happy to look at their conference records

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Points scored and allowed by your team and your opponents are facts. If you want to assume that other teams are competitive longer and fall apart, go ahead, but you don't have any factual basis for that

How do you determine SOS in the college game? It is nearly impossible. It is not the NFL where 7-10 is 7-10.

In 2020 we lost at UNC by 25. This year we lost to VA Tech by 28. The scoring margin isn't that much different. How we got to those scoring margins is a huge difference. One game we trailed by 1 point halfway through the 3rd Q and still had a punchers chance until 11:30 in the 4th Q. The other game was essentially over halfway through the 2nd Q, the chances of coming back from 23 points on the road is minuscule (5% according to ESPN's W probability).

Edit

As to your last sentence I am not going to go back for every team to show Dino is worse. He is worse compared to GRob, Marrone, and Shafer. I do know that. There is no way a HC who trails by 17 or more in the 1st half over 20% of the time is average. That is 2-3 games a year where the game is a non contest in the 1st half. That is NOT avg.

 

[Millhouse]

How do you determine SOS in the college game? It is nearly impossible. It is not the NFL where 7-10 is 7-10.

In 2020 we lost at UNC by 25. This year we lost to VA Tech by 28. The scoring margin isn't that much different. How we got to those scoring margins is a huge difference. One game we trailed by 1 point halfway through the 3rd Q and still had a punchers chance until 11:30 in the 4th Q. The other game was essentially over halfway through the 2nd Q, the chances of coming back from 23 points on the road is minuscule (5% according to ESPN's W probability).

Edit

As to your last sentence I am not going to go back for every team to show Dino is worse. He is worse compared to GRob, Marrone, and Shafer. I do know that. There is no way a HC who trails by 17 or more in the 1st half over 20% of the time is average. That is 2-3 games a year where the game is a non contest in the 1st half. That is NOT avg.

If you're curious about details

SRS Calculation Details | Sports-Reference.com

SRS Calculation Details

www.sports-reference.com

 

[wfschrec]

It may just be me but it seems SU has the ball inside the 50 and it's 3rd and 6-8 and then they lose yards thus forcing the punt instead of getting getting 2 to 4 yards on 3rd down and making it more reasonable.

The Army method ... on third and medium/long in plus territory you don't need every single yard. Get close enough and you've got options.

 

[wfschrec]

Don’t you factor in circumstances? Marrone had a total gutting job to do with absolutely no resources. In 3 years he turned us into a top 15 team by the end of the 2012 season.

If we factor in circumstance then we must consider he was in the Big Least and didn't play FSU or Clemson each season either, he quit while the quitting was good. Avoided an ACC schedule ... Nassib also left leaving the QB cupboard slightly bare. Doug knew what was coming.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

If you're curious about details

SRS Calculation Details | Sports-Reference.com

SRS Calculation Details

www.sports-reference.com

My point was there is no way to accurately calculate SOS given the variety of schedules in CFB.

On top of that the SRS takes liberties with what to include and not include. They even admit to bias. So to say these are facts is not factual.

The closest thing to apples to apples is comparing the ACC Atlantic. We know Dino’s record stinks with those data points. I suspect that is point differential does as well.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

If we factor in circumstance then we must consider he was in the Big Least and didn't play FSU or Clemson each season either, he quit while the quitting was good. Avoided an ACC schedule ... Nassib also left leaving the QB cupboard slightly bare. Doug knew what was coming.

He also recruited to the Big East meaning we had less talent too.

 

[wfschrec]

He also recruited to the Big East meaning we had less talent too.

He was squaring off with ND, Clemson and others for talent I wholly disagree. Now if you said his recruiting challenges were higher due to facilities then I’m onboard. I don’t think he said well we are in the Big East so let’s not go after top tier talent. It never stopped him from going after Curtis Samuel, EO, Ishaq and others of that recruiting level.

 

[Millhouse]

My point was there is no way to accurately calculate SOS given the variety of schedules in CFB.

On top of that the SRS takes liberties with what to include and not include. They even admit to bias. So to say these are facts is not factual.

The closest thing to apples to apples is comparing the ACC Atlantic. We know Dino’s record stinks with those data points. I suspect that is point differential does as well.

A bunch of crazy people think they have great judgment. I think you're ridiculous. Their number is better than your non number

 

[HRE Otto IV]

A bunch of crazy people think they have great judgment. I think you're ridiculous. Their number is better than your non number

English please

 

[Millhouse]

English please

I think you are ridiculous.
I prefer good but not perfect numbers to your terrible guessing.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I think you are ridiculous.
I prefer good but not perfect numbers to your terrible guessing.

I have no problem using SRS as a tool. But to act like it is fact makes you a tool.

SRS: we created this for the NFL. There is bias and we don’t take into account X, Y, or Z.

Me: there are biases in the SRS. It doesn’t take into account variances in schedules, home field, and minimizes blowouts. All of which are bigger factors in the college game.

You: SRS is a fact no one can deny the output.

 

[anomander]

If we factor in circumstance then we must consider he was in the Big Least and didn't play FSU or Clemson each season either, he quit while the quitting was good. Avoided an ACC schedule ... Nassib also left leaving the QB cupboard slightly bare. Doug knew what was coming.

Hunt won a bowl game and was serviceable when healthy. I always thought that the big east was this huge
step down from the ACC at the time was a huge misconception. Clemson wasn’t Clemson yet. They actually weren’t even that good. FSU was decent. Best team at the time was VT (Old BE team). Louisville, Cincinatti and WVU had some good teams at the time. Rutgers, USF, and UConn were solid and had some good years. Looking back the conferences actually match up pretty well. Take a look.

 

[wfschrec]

Hunt won a bowl game and was serviceable when healthy. I always thought that the big east was this huge
step down from the ACC at the time was a huge misconception. Clemson wasn’t Clemson yet. They actually weren’t even that good. FSU was decent. Best team at the time was VT (Old BE team). Louisville, Cincinatti and WVU had some good teams at the time. Rutgers, USF, and UConn were solid and had some good years. Looking back the conferences actually match up pretty well. Take a look.

While true the point of comparing Doug to Dino my statement applies. How good the ACC was while Doug was coaching has no bearing on this as he was playing Big East teams. SU joined the ACC the second season of what was 12 straight 10+ wins per season for Clemson. Marrone didn’t have to deal with Clemson or for that matter a national title contender like FSU in 2013. Marrone had far more favorable SOS than Shafer or Dino it isn’t even arguable.

 

[sufandu]

Facts are facts. Computer rankings are not facts. They are influenced by human premises and are biased to the data points included, excluded, and given weights. On top of that CFB has few data points and a ton of variance (unlike the NFL). You can manipulate the same data to show both sides of opposite arguments.

Dino has trailed by 17 points in the 1st half of over 20% of his games. Even if he ended up losing by the "average" given his SOS, the fact that his losses are over in the 1st half while Coach X's happen in the 4th Q is a huge difference. Sure they end up at the same place, but how you get there matters.

If Dino's games are over at halftime and in garbage time nothing changes in the 2nd half, how is that the same as another coach hanging around until the 4th Q where the opponent finally pulls away? In Dino's case the team is unprepared and doesn't show up. In the later case, in the end you cannot make up for the talent gap.

UNC only scored 13 points in the 2nd half. Was that due to garbage time or good coaching by Dino? Or VA Tech only scoring 8 in the 2nd half? Then you have a team like Duke who lost to FSU by 18 points. That is a lot of points, but Duke lead until 13:03 in the 4th D. There is a huge difference in losing by 18 that way and losing by 18 only because the entire 2nd half is garbage time. I rather have the avg score regress to the avg from a positive halftime starting point and not from a negative halftime deficit.

Have you get to the avg matters, and in Dino's case it is a major issue.

Facts are facts, but it takes more than just number crunching to look at the why behind the facts. Some people don't want to or are incapabale of doing that.

You make a great point in saying comparing success in the NFL is totally different than comparing success in college. Free agency, salary caps, roster size and the design of the draft process work to ensure talent levels are so much more even.

Differences in facilities, recruiting budgets, staff budgets, NIL support, and overall support from the AD make comparing coaches with simple formulas silly. We can't compare Marrone to Babers because he didn't have the facilities, the budget, or the overall support from the AD Babers has had. We also don't know how good he would be at navigating NIL and the transfer portal? We also don't know how well P could've kept the momentum going the second half of his tenure with more investment from the university to keep pace with our peers. The numbers show a clear decline in the success of the program. They are incapable of assigning the level of responsibility of that decline to the coach versus things that were out of the coach's control.

If the discussion is whether to move on from Babers, sadly I'd say it's time. I've liked him and really wanted him to succeed, but his inability to put together a functional oline is baffling after 8 years. The biggest surprise to me is how hard it's been to find/develop a WR corp. After his first two years it seems like someone would be interested and coming here to put up big numbers after seeing what AET, Ishmael, and Philips did. Then not being able to recruit another QB to compete with TD during the Dungey years also seems crazy. After seeing TD get beat up in 2019 and 2020, I get why guys would be hesitant, but we had 3 years with Dungey as QB where the oline wasn't as clearly dysfunctional where someone should've had some interest.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

While true the point of comparing Doug to Dino my statement applies. How good the ACC was while Doug was coaching has no bearing on this as he was playing Big East teams. SU joined the ACC the second season of what was 12 straight 10+ wins per season for Clemson. Marrone didn’t have to deal with Clemson or for that matter a national title contender like FSU in 2013. Marrone had far more favorable SOS than Shafer or Dino it isn’t even arguable.

To be fair Marrone was using Big East players to compete against a Big East schedule. Dino has ACC players competing against an ACC schedule. You need to factor that in.

Also the Big East wasn't much different than the ACC minus FSU and Clemson (+ND in 2020). Removing those 3 teams, Dino is 17-30 in ACC play. So Dino is at .362 while Marrone was at .392 in conference.

 

[anomander]

While true the point of comparing Doug to Dino my statement applies. How good the ACC was while Doug was coaching has no bearing on this as he was playing Big East teams. SU joined the ACC the second season of what was 12 straight 10+ wins per season for Clemson. Marrone didn’t have to deal with Clemson or for that matter a national title contender like FSU in 2013. Marrone had far more favorable SOS than Shafer or Dino it isn’t even arguable.

Who knows if we were placed in the coastal!!

Even so, just by using my eyes, i can tell the product that Marrone put on the field was superior to Shafer and Babers since, minus 2018 when everything seemed to click. All things considered I would have liked to see what could have been achieved given the resources Babers has had. Tens of millions of dollars in facilities, conference affiliation, and not the stink of the lowest of lows Syracuse had suffered through, and the product on the field is at best equal.

 

[wfschrec]

Who knows if we were placed in the coastal!!

Even so, just by using my eyes, i can tell the product that Marrone put on the field was superior to Shafer and Babers since, minus 2018 when everything seemed to click. All things considered I would have liked to see what could have been achieved given the resources Babers has had. Tens of millions of dollars in facilities, conference affiliation, and not the stink of the lowest of lows Syracuse had suffered through, and the product on the field is at best equal.

Well we weren’t placed in the coastal so that has no bearing here. In 2 out of 4 seasons Doug had a season with just 1 ranked opponent … just one. Shafer alone averaged more than 3 per season. Easy to pass an eye test when your schedule is easier, significantly easier.

As far as I’m concerned all 3 (Marrone, Dino, Shafer) were right where Millhouse had them, average.

 

[wfschrec]

To be fair Marrone was using Big East players to compete against a Big East schedule. Dino has ACC players competing against an ACC schedule. You need to factor that in.

Also the Big East wasn't much different than the ACC minus FSU and Clemson (+ND in 2020). Removing those 3 teams, Dino is 17-30 in ACC play. So Dino is at .362 while Marrone was at .392 in conference.

Recruiting to a Big East schedule? So he wasn’t grabbing the best recruits possible? Then why even hire him? I have already stated this elsewhere but Marrone still chased 4/5 star talent he just didn’t close. Why he didn’t close is up for lots of debate.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Recruiting to a Big East schedule? So he wasn’t grabbing the best recruits possible? Then why even hire him? I have already stated this elsewhere but Marrone still chased 4/5 star talent he just didn’t close. Why he didn’t close is up for lots of debate.

Part of that reason is we were in the Big East. That isn't an easy conference to recruit to.

 

[wfschrec]

Part of that reason is we were in the Big East. That isn't an easy conference to recruit to.

WVU didn’t have any issues. I’m fine with saying we were behind in the facilities arms race, no one here will argue that.

However I feel we can do far better than Marrone.

 

[CuseLegacy]

 

[Millhouse]

Part of that reason is we were in the Big East. That isn't an easy conference to recruit to.

Has the ACC made a difference in recruiting for BC Pitt or VT?

 

[wfschrec]

Has the ACC made a difference in recruiting for BC Pitt or VT?

Nope

 

[sufandu]

Dino's right there with Jimbo. National Championship here we come!