Baked in wins.

[GoSU96]

People who think this is a three or four loss season are nuts, at least the way things stand today. Major injuries could always change that. All things being equal SU is starting with 5 wins and going from there.

Here is the the delta between Offensive touchdowns vs Defensive touchdowns allowed in 2012 for SU and the teams SU is playing this year.

Name... Delta.... H/A
FSU...... 41...... Away
Clemson.. 27...... Home
PSU..... 17...... Neutral
NW..... 11..... Away
SU...... 11..... N/A
Pitt..... 11..... Home
GT...... 10...... Away
NCSt.... 3...... Away
UMD.... -9..... Away
WF..... -16..... Home
BC...... -16.... Home
Tulane... -24.... Home

And here is a note about NCST, they were ridiculously unbalanced on offense pass vs run in yardage, ratio of plays, and scoring. Their offense began and ended with Glennon.

As for UMD, WF, BC, and Tulane, upsets happen, but SU would have to fall off the table and those teams would have to make massive jumps to close the gap in one year. Add in Wagner and there are your five.

 

[Scooch]

Did you mean 3 or 4 "win" season?

Out of curiosity, have you looked at that differential retrospectively to see if it correlated to our W/L record that past couple years?

 

[007]

People who think this is a three or four loss season are nuts, at least the way things stand today. Major injuries could always change that. All things being equal SU is starting with 5 wins and going from there.

Not sure about the Delta theory, but are you really suggesting that anyone predicting a 9-3 or 8-4 (3 or 4 losses) is NUTS because there are 5 "baked in" wins?

 

[FAL]

Delta? Delta? How about alpha, gamma, and beta? Puh-leeze! This is friggin' football, not accounting or a fraternity, for cripes sake!

 

[dinosaurbbq]

What happened last year as to the delta doesn't accurately forecast what is going to happen this year. New players, new coaches and new system for us and some others and new competition--meaning teams we are playing against. More important, it isn't an accurate predictor of won v loss records. Most important, this means that SU scored one TD per game more than it gave up against BE competition which is on average worse than ACC competition. We better get better at scoring TDs this year.

Finally, according to your chart on the delta and if you are right that it accurately predicts game winners, this forecasts as a three or four loss team, because we are tied for 4th best delta. Isn't that exactly who you are saying is nuts is people believing this is a three or four loss team in the very beginning of your post?

What is with the stats presenters today? Jeeeesh!!!!

With all that said, I think most SU fans agree that we will beat Wagner, Tulane, MD, Wake Forest and BC, but we could certainly lose to a few of them. That is your "baked in 5 wins".

 

[Whitey23]

Forwarding this to my so I can get my season win total ticket paid out early.

 

[Chip]

I think you guys are going to be surprised by Maryland if you think they'll look as bad as they finished last year. It was an unprecedented set of injuries to QBs. They were pulling an Akron 2009 and advertising in the school newspaper. Even at that they were 4-2, then lost 2 combined games by 5 points before the bottom fell out. I think that game is a pick 'em.

Addazio will infuse plenty of much needed energy into BC, but if it will be disappointing if they were to pull the upset at the Dome. Last game of the year though, so many things can happen between now and then.

Wagner, Tulane, Wake, have to be wins. No questions asked. I'm almost putting Pitt on that list in the Dome.

We'll definitely win at least one game where we're an underdog, if not two.

3 baked in wins (Wagner, Tulane, Wake)
2 should be wins (BC, Pitt)
3 wild cards (Maryland, Penn State, NC State)
3 uphill battles (Clemson, @GT, @NW)
1 mission impossible (FSU)

Give me 6 wins with this schedule and new staff, and I'm smiling. Because everything should go up from there.

 

[chakka3421]

6 plus wins for 1st year good in my book - however, losses need to be very competitive. I hate to be blown out with 1st year HCSS at the helm.

However, I think we may find out that we are better than most people think. My gut tells me 8-4 and a great bowl win.

 

[SWC75]

Tell Coach Shafer about the "baked in" wins - or losses. See what reaction you get.

 

[GoSU96]

Did you mean 3 or 4 "win" season?

Out of curiosity, have you looked at that differential retrospectively to see if it correlated to our W/L record that past couple years?

Yes, flip, loss for win, my bad.

Those teams at the bottom are similar to where SU was '08 and '09. You don't escape that overnight.

 

[SU2NASA]

Dude, we're going 14-0.

 

[SUFaninNJ]

Not sure which picture to go with. This...

 

[SUFaninNJ]

Or this...

 

[FAL]

Or this (at least the color is right)...

 

[eddie in nc]

I think you guys are going to be surprised by Maryland if you think they'll look as bad as they finished last year. It was an unprecedented set of injuries to QBs. They were pulling an Akron 2009 and advertising in the school newspaper. Even at that they were 4-2, then lost 2 combined games by 5 points before the bottom fell out. I think that game is a pick 'em.

Addazio will infuse plenty of much needed energy into BC, but if it will be disappointing if they were to pull the upset at the Dome. Last game of the year though, so many things can happen between now and then.

Wagner, Tulane, Wake, have to be wins. No questions asked. I'm almost putting Pitt on that list in the Dome.

We'll definitely win at least one game where we're an underdog, if not two.

3 baked in wins (Wagner, Tulane, Wake)
2 should be wins (BC, Pitt)
3 wild cards (Maryland, Penn State, NC State)
3 uphill battles (Clemson, @GT, @NW)
1 mission impossible (FSU)

Give me 6 wins with this schedule and new staff, and I'm smiling. Because everything should go up from there.

I'd be careful penciling in Wake as a W. Grobe is the best coach in the conference and if they can stay away from the injury bug that has bitten them the last couple of years they will surprise some people this year. I think Pitt will be more of a baked in win this year than Wake.

 

[dollarbill44]

There are NO "baked in" wins. The only thing baked are people who think any game is a given.

 

[sufandu]

Nothing is guaranteed this year. Remember how bad we looked against Minnesota last year? That was a "can't miss" and we missed. We got a lot better when Pugh came back and I don't think it was a coincidence. Well, now we have to replace him for the whole season. We have a new quarterback running a new system and return one receiver that had good production. We have a stout defensive line, but no proven pass rushers. How many times did we stuff runs on first and second down last year only to give up a third and long because the quarterback had all day to find a guy? The expectation is that returning guys will improve and a newcomer or two could make a splash, but there's no certainty with either.

This is a team that could scare FSU or Clemson, if the guys we need to step up do so, or it could miss a bowl game, if we haven't found suitable replacements for the guys we lost.

 

[Chip]

I'd be careful penciling in Wake as a W. Grobe is the best coach in the conference and if they can stay away from the injury bug that has bitten them the last couple of years they will surprise some people this year. I think Pitt will be more of a baked in win this year than Wake.

Yeah, that's probably a good point, they will have the same QB and RB (reinstated I thought I heard?) from when they came in here in 2011 and controlled the first 3 quarters of the game. But at the Dome, we have to win. If it was at Wake, I'd put in the wild card group.