SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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I’ll continue this season to make monthly reports on the top ten batters in each league in “bases produced” and “runs produced”.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.151. That’s better than Kris Bryant (.907) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.281). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,151 times. He didn’t do something 1.151 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs producted”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AFTER AUGUST
American League
Bases Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 366 in 128 games (2.86) and 557 plate appearances (.657)
Jose Altuve, Astros 361 in 128 games (2.82) and 562 plate appearances (.642)
Justin Smoak, Blue Jays 322 in 131 games (2.46) and 526 plate appearances (.612)
Brian Dozier, Twins 321 in 125 games (2.57) and 583 plate appearances (.551)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 320 in 129 games (2.48) and 544 plate appearances (.588)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 318 in 129 games (2.47) and 604 plate appearances (.526)
Justin Upton, Tigers 316 in 125 games (2.53) and 520 plate appearances (.608)
Edwin Encarnacion, Indians 313 in 129 games (2.43) and 552 plate appearances (.567)
Manny Machado, Orioles 313 in 129 games (2.43) and 573 plate appearances (.546)
Francisco Lindor, Indians 313 in 130 games (2.41) and 589 plate appearances (.531)
Runs Produced
Jonathan Schoop 152 in 132 games (1.15) and 557 plate appearances (.273)
Justin Upton, Tigers 147 in 125 games (1.18) and 520 plate appearances (.283)
Aaron Judge, Yankees 144 in 128 games (1.13) and 557 plate appearances (.259)
Nelson Cruz, Seattle 143 in 127 games (1.13) and 525 plate appearances (.272)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 143 in 129 games (1.11) and 604 plate appearances (.237)
Jose Altuve, Astros 139 in 128 games (1.09) and 562 plate appearances (.247)
Elvis Andrus, Rangers 139 in 129 games (1.08) and 568 plate appearances (.245)
George Springer, Astros 134 in 113 games (1.19) and 510 plate appearances (.263)
Eric Hosmer, Royals 134 in 132 games (1.02) and 555 plate appearances (.241)
Khris Davis, Athletics 132 in 129 games (1.02) and 551 plate appearances (.240)
Comments: Mutt (Aaron Judge) and Jeff, (Jose Altuve) continue to lead the league in base production with their totally different games. I’ve just gotten sued to having Justin Smoak among the leaders and here comes Jonathan Schoop! Who the heck are these people?
National League
Bases Produced
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 398 in 131 games (3.04) and 601 plate appearances (.662)
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 392 in 131 games (2.99) and 567 plate appearances (.691)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 391 in 133 games (2.94) and 572 plate appearances (.684)
Joey Votto, Reds 391 in 134 games (2.92) and 589 plate appearances (.664)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 345 in 133 games (2.59) and 565 plate appearances (.611)
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 342 in 131 games (2.61) and 582 plate appearances (.588)
Kris Bryant, Cubs 334 in 125 games (2.67) and 554 plate appearances (.603)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 334 in 132 games (2.53) and 562 plate appearances (.594)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 315 in 106 games (2.97) and 472 plate appearances (.667)
Anthony Rendon, Nationals 312 in 125 games (2.50) and 513 plate appearances (.608)
Runs Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 176 in 133 games (1.32) and 572 plate appearances (.308)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 172 in 131 games (1.31) and 601 plate appearances (.286)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 163 in 123 games (1.33) and 565 plate appearances (.288)
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 163 in 131 games (1.24) and 567 plate appearances (.287)
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 151 in 131 games (1.15) and 582 plate appearances (.259)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 150 in 106 games (1.42) and 472 plate appearances (.318)
Joey Votto, Reds 148 in 134 games (1.10) and 589 plate appearances (.251)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 147 in 132 games (1.11) and 562 plate appearances (.262)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 145 in 122 games (1.19) and 504 plate appearances (.288)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 143 in 124 games (1.15) and 534 plate appearances (.268)
Comments: Giancarlo Stanton is getting all the attention for all the home runs he is hitting but Paul Goldschmidt is actually have a better year for a better team. Joey Votto has become one of my favorite players. 113 walks. 70 strike outs, (the reverse of most other players these days). He’s hitting .310 with 34 homes, 91 runs, 91 rbi. What’s not to like, other than the team he plays for?
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.151. That’s better than Kris Bryant (.907) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.281). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,151 times. He didn’t do something 1.151 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs producted”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AFTER AUGUST
American League
Bases Produced
Aaron Judge, Yankees 366 in 128 games (2.86) and 557 plate appearances (.657)
Jose Altuve, Astros 361 in 128 games (2.82) and 562 plate appearances (.642)
Justin Smoak, Blue Jays 322 in 131 games (2.46) and 526 plate appearances (.612)
Brian Dozier, Twins 321 in 125 games (2.57) and 583 plate appearances (.551)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 320 in 129 games (2.48) and 544 plate appearances (.588)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 318 in 129 games (2.47) and 604 plate appearances (.526)
Justin Upton, Tigers 316 in 125 games (2.53) and 520 plate appearances (.608)
Edwin Encarnacion, Indians 313 in 129 games (2.43) and 552 plate appearances (.567)
Manny Machado, Orioles 313 in 129 games (2.43) and 573 plate appearances (.546)
Francisco Lindor, Indians 313 in 130 games (2.41) and 589 plate appearances (.531)
Runs Produced
Jonathan Schoop 152 in 132 games (1.15) and 557 plate appearances (.273)
Justin Upton, Tigers 147 in 125 games (1.18) and 520 plate appearances (.283)
Aaron Judge, Yankees 144 in 128 games (1.13) and 557 plate appearances (.259)
Nelson Cruz, Seattle 143 in 127 games (1.13) and 525 plate appearances (.272)
Mookie Betts, Red Sox 143 in 129 games (1.11) and 604 plate appearances (.237)
Jose Altuve, Astros 139 in 128 games (1.09) and 562 plate appearances (.247)
Elvis Andrus, Rangers 139 in 129 games (1.08) and 568 plate appearances (.245)
George Springer, Astros 134 in 113 games (1.19) and 510 plate appearances (.263)
Eric Hosmer, Royals 134 in 132 games (1.02) and 555 plate appearances (.241)
Khris Davis, Athletics 132 in 129 games (1.02) and 551 plate appearances (.240)
Comments: Mutt (Aaron Judge) and Jeff, (Jose Altuve) continue to lead the league in base production with their totally different games. I’ve just gotten sued to having Justin Smoak among the leaders and here comes Jonathan Schoop! Who the heck are these people?
National League
Bases Produced
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 398 in 131 games (3.04) and 601 plate appearances (.662)
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 392 in 131 games (2.99) and 567 plate appearances (.691)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 391 in 133 games (2.94) and 572 plate appearances (.684)
Joey Votto, Reds 391 in 134 games (2.92) and 589 plate appearances (.664)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 345 in 133 games (2.59) and 565 plate appearances (.611)
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 342 in 131 games (2.61) and 582 plate appearances (.588)
Kris Bryant, Cubs 334 in 125 games (2.67) and 554 plate appearances (.603)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 334 in 132 games (2.53) and 562 plate appearances (.594)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 315 in 106 games (2.97) and 472 plate appearances (.667)
Anthony Rendon, Nationals 312 in 125 games (2.50) and 513 plate appearances (.608)
Runs Produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 176 in 133 games (1.32) and 572 plate appearances (.308)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 172 in 131 games (1.31) and 601 plate appearances (.286)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 163 in 123 games (1.33) and 565 plate appearances (.288)
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 163 in 131 games (1.24) and 567 plate appearances (.287)
Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 151 in 131 games (1.15) and 582 plate appearances (.259)
Bryce Harper, Nationals 150 in 106 games (1.42) and 472 plate appearances (.318)
Joey Votto, Reds 148 in 134 games (1.10) and 589 plate appearances (.251)
Marcel Ozuna, Marlins 147 in 132 games (1.11) and 562 plate appearances (.262)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 145 in 122 games (1.19) and 504 plate appearances (.288)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 143 in 124 games (1.15) and 534 plate appearances (.268)
Comments: Giancarlo Stanton is getting all the attention for all the home runs he is hitting but Paul Goldschmidt is actually have a better year for a better team. Joey Votto has become one of my favorite players. 113 walks. 70 strike outs, (the reverse of most other players these days). He’s hitting .310 with 34 homes, 91 runs, 91 rbi. What’s not to like, other than the team he plays for?
