Believe what you want about the onsides kick strategy

[IthacaMatt]

I don't believe the minuscule chance to recover the onside is worth the trade off of potentially losing field position and impacting the approach of the other team's offensive play calling.

A 20% chance of getting the ball with an onside kick. Not exactly miniscule.

 

[Arangeman]

A 20% chance of getting the ball with an onside kick. Not exactly miniscule.

Is that the national average? Does anyone here really put our chances of getting an onside kick at 20%? Have you seen our onsides kicks?

Just read Dino's comments on the onside. He said there is no right or wrong, but difference of opinion philosophically. His explanation made sense, even if I disagree. He didn't say anything about those who disagree not understanding probability.

 

[Chris02M]

the onside kick actually looked like it had a chance this time unlike the last ones we tried

 

[Crusty]

Results oriented.

I don't need the outcome to be critical of the strategy. It flies in the face of conventional wisdom. Field position matters to most coaches.

Georgia onside kicked on the opening kickoff. Dabout does it all the time. It is simply an aggressive play. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. Dino is an aggressive offensive minded coach. I'll take the good with the bad.

 

[Orijinal]

Listen, this is not hindsight coaching at all. I was screaming at Dino to kick it freaking deep JUST before he kicked the ball onsides. This was stupid for 4 major reasons when you take into account the CURRENT state of the game at that exact moment:

You are down 3 lousy points.
You still have 3 minutes left on the clock
Your defense has been playing well ...especially on 3rd down
You have TWO timeouts!

You're gonna take a 20% probability that your recover the freaking kick?
Really? You play the higher probability that you are gonna get better field position

You think that if Syracuse gets FSU to start at the 25 and gets FSU with a 3 and out that Syracuse is STILL gonna start at their own 18?? Nuts. No way.

What could Murphy have done with another 10 yards?

 

[Arangeman]

Georgia onside kicked on the opening kickoff. Dabout does it all the time. It is simply an aggressive play. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. Dino is an aggressive offensive minded coach. I'll take the good with the bad.

A surprise onside is different. Not really relevant to this convo. And Georgia doing an onside vs SC on the opening kick is a zero risk play. Why not?

Dino gave a great explanation. I see where he was coming from. He wasn't very confident we could stop them and felt the chance to get the ball was more important than starting at the 35-40. I get it. I just don't agree with it.

 

[Crusty]

A surprise onside is different. Not really relevant to this convo. And Georgia doing an onside vs SC on the opening kick is a zero risk play. Why not?

Dino gave a great explanation. I see where he was coming from. He wasn't very confident we could stop them and felt the chance to get the ball was more important than starting at the 35-40. I get it. I just don't agree with it.

He never said he wasn't confident we could stop them.

 

[Bayside44]

Not sure what the problem was we got the ball back.

Bigger issue - if you want to call it that, is not taking one deep shot to steal it and leave.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Is that the national average? Does anyone here really put our chances of getting an onside kick at 20%? Have you seen our onsides kicks?

Just read Dino's comments on the onside. He said there is no right or wrong, but difference of opinion philosophically. His explanation made sense, even if I disagree. He didn't say anything about those who disagree not understanding probability.

That's the statistical average for college football from 2000 to 2012. Look it up.

 

[kcsu]

A 20% chance of getting the ball with an onside kick. Not exactly miniscule.

Not true. 20% when it isnt expected. Less than 8% when the other team knows its coming.

 

[Crusty]

Not true. 20% when it isnt expected. Less than 8% when the other team knows its coming.

How can that be a real stat? How does anyone know what the other team expected?

 

[kcsu]

How can that be a real stat? How does anyone know what the other team expected?

You can Google it. Simply put when the D is expecting the on sides kick vs when it is attempted as a trick/surprise the percentage of success drops to 8%.

 

[AZOrange]

Not sure what the problem was we got the ball back.

Bigger issue - if you want to call it that, is not taking one deep shot to steal it and leave.

I think QB time and coverage had become a problem at that point. Seemed like no one could get open.

 

[Crusty]

You can Google it. Simply put when the D is expecting the on sides kick vs when it is attempted as a trick/surprise the percentage of success drops to 8%.

Be happy to. Google what exactly?

 

[kcsu]

Be happy to. Google what exactly?

I think on side kick percentages.

 

[TheCusian]

People who think the yardage matters don’t have the same belief in the offense that Dino has. That’s the *only* prism to see it through, IMO. He believes yardage doesn’t matter as much because he’s not 3 yards and a cloud of dust. He’s a 50 yards in three plays kind of guy. He sees it as 20% onside recovery rate = one or two more pass plays.

And they get double, sometime triple the reps most offenses get in practice. He and the O knows exactly what they are doing with the time running down.

 

[SmilinBob]

I said it before and I'll say it again. If a team has 8 guys or so in 2 rows lined up near the kicking team why not pouch it a little over their heads and make it a free for all? Not only does it give you a better chance imo but also they don't get as good of a field position and...who knows how the football will bounce? Look to see how they line up and go accordingly, just as you do on offense you look at the situation and attack the weakness because it's a large field to cover.

 

[IthacaMatt]

How can that be a real stat? How does anyone know what the other team expected?

The following is based on five years of data, I believe, in the linked article. I saw another article like this the other day that was for 12 years of college football data, and the success rate for end-of-game kicks was around 20%. These are the numbers from the linked article:

"For standard onside kicks, the success rate is around 18 percent; for surprise onside kicks, it is around 42 percent."

A "surprise" onside kick would be one that takes place other than in the later part of the 4th quarter when a team is behind.

For example, didn't one team do a surprise onside kick at the start of the second half in a recent Super Bowl? That would be a "surprise" onside kick - one other than at the end of the game.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Varsity Numbers: Fourth-and-15

 

[Crusty]

The following is based on five years of data, I believe, in the linked article. I saw another article like this the other day that was for 12 years of college football data, and the success rate for end-of-game kicks was around 20%. These are the numbers from the linked article:

"For standard onside kicks, the success rate is around 18 percent; for surprise onside kicks, it is around 42 percent."

A "surprise" onside kick would be one that takes place other than in the later part of the 4th quarter when a team is behind.

For example, didn't one team do a surprise onside kick at the start of the second half in a recent Super Bowl? That would be a "surprise" onside kick - one other than at the end of the game.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Varsity Numbers: Fourth-and-15

Think it might have been the Saints.