Big reason why offense is inconsistent & may be for some time

[Henny & Coke]

The returning experience of our guards is lowest it's been in at least a decade.

I'll get into the numbers in a moment, but would like to first explain why this impacts offense more than defense (and make some obvious, I mean, mind blowing observations in the process.)

On offense, guards possess the ball most of time (obviously) & are most often tasked with "running the offense" or setting up shots for others. Also, at Syracuse, a good portion of our offense relies on fast break points off of turnovers that usually come from the top of the zone - the guards place on defense. Thus, why if a team has inexperienced guards, the offense will most likely suffer more than defense.

(Since our most experienced players - CJ, RAK, Keita - play inside, their experience allows them to usually contest many of the "easier" shots that are taken that close to basket. The inexperience of our guards will most likely be seen in teams shooting better percentages from outside, where shots are generally tougher to make, since they are further from hoop - again, pretty obvious.)

Returning college experience going into the year - mins (over how many seasons):

2013-14:
Cooney - 436 mins (1 season)
Gbinije - 111 mins (1 season) *
Ennis - 0 mins
Patterson - 0 mins

Total experience coming into season: 547 mins (2 seasons)

* Mins played at Duke for Gbinije were most likely at forward, not guard.

2012-13:
Triche - 2,590 mins (3 seasons)
MCW - 269 mins (1 season)
Cooney - 0 mins

Total experience coming into season: 2,859 mins (4 seasons)

2011-12:
Scoop - 2,546 mins (3 seasons)
Triche - 1,756 mins (2 seasons)
Waiters - 554 mins (1 season)
MCW - 0 mins

Total experience coming into season: 4,856 mins (6 seasons)

2010-11:
Scoop - 1,424 mins (2 seasons)
Triche - 747 mins (1 season)
Waiters - 0 mins

Total experience coming into season: 2,171 mins (3 seasons)

2009-10:
Rautins - 1,959 mins (3 seasons)
Scoop - 646 mins (1 season)
Triche - 0 mins

Total experience coming into season: 2,605 mins (4 seasons)

2008-09:
Devo - 2,370 mins (3 seasons)
Rautins - 900 mins (2 seasons)
Flynn - 1,243 (1 season)

Total experience coming into season: 4,513 mins (6 seasons)

2007-08:
Devo - 2,028 mins (2 seasons) *
Flynn - 0 mins
Scoop - 0 mins

Total experience coming into season: 2,028 mins (2 seasons)

* Devo will only play in 342 mins this season (2007-08) due to injury, so, in essense, we play 2 Frosh guards the rest of the way.

2006-07:
Devo - 947 mins (1 season)
Wright - 560 mins (2 seasons)
Rautins - 159 mins (1 season)

Total experience coming into season: 1,666 mins (4 seasons)

2005-06:
G-Mac - 3,567 mins (3 seasons)
Wright - 161 mins (1 season)
Devo - 0 mins
Rautins - 0 mins

Total experience coming into season: 3,728 mins (4 seasons)

2004-05:
G-Mac - 2,358 mins (2 seasons)
Pace - 1,909 mins (3 seasons)
Edelin - 1,096 mins (2 seasons)
Wright - 0 mins

Total experience coming into season: 5,363 mins (7 seasons)

2003-04:
G-Mac - 1,236 mins (1 season)
Pace - 858 mins (2 seasons)
Edelin - 533 mins (1 season)

Total experience coming into season: 2,627 mins (4 seasons)

2002-03:
K Duany - 1,937 mins (3 seasons)
Pace - 389 mins (1 season)
G-Mac - 0 mins
Edelin - 0 mins

Total experience coming into season: 2,326 mins (4 seasons)

And that is where ESPN stops providing team stats, so that is where I stopped.

Pretty remarkable though to see just how few returning mins of college basketball experience our 4 guards have as a group, compared to other recent teams. When you look at it in these terms, you can see how there may be some (major?) stuggles early on this year while our guards accrue that all important playing experience - but, the fact that both Cooney & Gbinije have redshirt years under their belts (and the natural talent that Ennis possesses) may provide hope that it starts to click sooner rather than later for this group.

 

[Orangezoo]

Yeah it is really clear there is no one in the backcourt who has experience in what is considered as the right play each time down the court. Its more of a who wants to make something happen this time approach. A lot of indecision and forced efforts. It will be bumpy as these guys feel their way through.

 

[orangejunkie]

Not sure I totally buy the inexperience theory with our backcourt. Granted for Cooney and Gbinije it is their first year of significant minutes, but they are both in their 3rd year of college hoops. Granted they both have a redshirt year but that is usually a plus for players development.

 

[jordoo]

Not sure I totally buy the inexperience theory with our backcourt. Granted for Cooney and Gbinije it is their first year of significant minutes, but they are both in their 3rd year of college hoops. Granted they both have a redshirt year but that is usually a plus for players development.

But they are inexperienced as in game playmakers. As is Ennis on this level. The good news is as you have pointed out 2 of the 3 are 3 years out of highschool and should pick it up faster. Ennis is a smart player and should also begin to improve

 

[CorduroyG]

its simple for me. as ennis gets more comfortable and improves so will the offense. its hard to win at any level with bad pg play.

 

[Henny & Coke]

Not sure I totally buy the inexperience theory with our backcourt. Granted for Cooney and Gbinije it is their first year of significant minutes, but they are both in their 3rd year of college hoops. Granted they both have a redshirt year but that is usually a plus for players development.

Not sure I'm selling an "inexperience theory" to buy though. I'm presenting facts. (Well, the theory I guess is the impact of this inexperience on the offense in particular.)

Fact: This year's guards bring 547 mins of college game experience into the season, while last year's guards brought 2,859 mins into the season, or more than 5 times more.

Fact: The guards two years ago brought 4,856 mins into the season, or almost 9 times more than this year's guards.

Fact: In the decade I've charted, no SU team's guards had as little returning experience as this group - closest is 2006-2007, which returned 1,666 mins - or still 1,119 more mins than the experience of this year's guards.

And also consider: Yes, Mike G does have a redshirt year to consider - but, remember, he used this redshirt year to learn a totally new position (PG)!

In fact, coming out of high school, all major recruiting sites listed him as a small forward - Rivals, 247 & Scout - (though Scout listed him as a SF/SG). So, not only did Mike G have to focus more on being an SG, but he also learned a completely new (& very different) position in PG. This should be considered.

 

[rstone7727]

Not sure stats are capable of telling the real story with such a low sample rate. In 2002-2003 fer instance, GMac and Billy were our best guards but had no experience at all. In 11-12, Dion was by far our best guard but had the least experience. Much more important to have talent over experience imo..

 

[Henny & Coke]

Not sure stats are capable of telling the real story with such a low sample rate. In 2002-2003 fer instance, GMac and Billy were our best guards but had no experience at all. In 11-12, Dion was by far our best guard but had the least experience. Much more important to have talent over experience imo..

I agree with this, but also offer this to think about - 3-4 games into these seasons you cite, were GMac, Billy E, Dion, ect all playing as well as they would play at the end of these seasons? Because we are only 3-4 games into our season now - and the performance in these early games is what I am trying to explain.

 

[Flacusian]

If there are 2 guards that we must have to commandeer our team with little or no experience, I'll be happy with my chances with Ennis and Cooney. By the end of the season Ennis will have 1 year experience and Cooney will have 2. Will there be some "learning moments" (that's a euphemism for jumping up and down, bat stuff crazy ranting and raving stupid plays) ? Yes... certainly, but heck we had those same kind of plays with all of the other previously listed guards who came in with moocho prior experience.

 

[Dave85]

TE is going to be awesome at some point. And, TC and MG are doing a very good job bringing up the ball. I think we will be okay. It's just going to take some time. TE hitting some 3's two games ago was encouraging. I think the pieces are in place but the offense just has to gel a bit. There's plenty of time to get better before the ACC season starts.

 

[orangefan13]

Kentucky wins it all sometimes with freshmen. Look at freshmen Gmac, sophmore Dion, sophmore flynn, sophmore devendorf. Cooney and Gbinije are technically Jr's due to one year of readshirting, and Gbinije had a extra year highschool.

I think the argument fits Ennis right, and thats primarily because hes a point guard, but not Cooney and Gbinije.

Ennis only 2 points last night. We won by 6. He puts up 12 ppg we win by 12-15 against a pretty good midmajor. Big difference.

He is a blow by guard right now. Not a isolation one who is going to back you down and get you offbalence. He finishes with the left very good though, is devloping a midrange floater/pullup that hasn't hit a wall from high school to college . And can hit open threes pulling up off the dribble. I think he just had a bad night last night. He looks comfortable even when he misses which leads me to believe hes more ready then he looks.

 

[orangefan13]

Fair showed some growing pains last night.
1.Hes dribbling the ball higher to pull up into his shot, which can lead to some turnovers.
2.Hes trying to get closer to the basket instead of using a lateral quickness to pullup which is key to his quickness
3.Hes starting his drives and pulling up from 3 point range to 18 feet now instead of 16-12 because we don't have a perimeter forward to move him inside more, and BJ is not ready.

Grant hasn't attempted to shoot 5-7 midrange jumpers in a game yet to keep his drive by honest and become a high post isolation threat. I think Roberson could have better mid post up one on one scoring then any player on this team by march, but he will need some run to show it.

I may be the only Rak supporter and will take slack for it but he had 4-5 drives yesterday where he beat his man one on one and got douled right before he turned to attack the basket. He passed it out to a wide open man every time off it. We got to make those shots and Rak has to attack and score at the rim or find the guy who isn't doubled on plays like those. It will be a center double teaming under the basket instead of a wing alot in the future. That will make it a harder shot for him.


Maybe this cuse team should take a different approach and not fear to lose, having Grant, and Ennis,force shots and Gbinije force drives. We have to trust JB and his knowledge, he may have to use advance growing procedures on guys like Grant, Ennis, Dajuan Roberson and Gbinije. If it cost us a few losses oh well at least we are trying to get better.

I saw alot of good ball denial last night from st. francis their ball denial was for real in the second half. Good learning experience.

The real reason yesterday was so brutal was pretty obvious though.
We let them shoot 49% in the first half and came out cold offensivley in the second half. Scoring 16 points in the second half with 6 minutes remaining won't do it. We were lucky that was a home game.

As frustrating as the score was yeterday this team can be really to watch for a team that isn't elite 8 quality yet. There is so much potential and 7 guys had scored in double figuers in just 3 games.

 

[jec1521]

I think our lack of offense the past couple of eyars has more to do with JB and staff recruiting more for defense than offense, especially in the front court.

 

[sufandu]

I think the single biggest reason for lack of offense is a lack of playmakers.

Trevor Cooney is a spot up shooter that is athletic enough to dunk with a wide open lane to the rim. He cannot create his own shot off the dribble. This will not change with experience.

CJ Fair is what he is. His game is good from midrange in when he is allowed to go left and he can hit open jumpshots out into three point territory. He is uncomfortable going to his right (including drop stepping right when guys over play his left, unexplainable), and breaking guys down off the dribble out on the perimeter is not his game.

Christmas doesn't have offense.

Coleman shows flashes on offense, it would be nice if he could develop into a consistent option in the pain.

Grant is mad athletic going to the rim (kinda sophomore Kris Joseph style) and has shown flashes of increased shooting range, but isn't going to be breaking guys down from the perimeter or posting up Hakim Warrick style.

Gbinije seems like someone that is content to let the game come to him and not force things, a little CJesque. This is a good trait, but doesn't make for a go to playmaker.

Keita, see Christmas

Ennis is our best chance at having a playmaker. This is the one guy where increased experience as the season goes on may result in more offense. The thing that could hinder it could be that he lacks elite athleticism.

Then there are the rest of the freshman. I have to believe that if any of them could create offense in the halfcourt on their own, JB would have them on the floor. JB stresses defense, but he's always found a way for elite offensive players to get on the floor despite defensive concerns.

It's less about experience and more about a lack of guys that can create offense. There are no Carmello Anthonys or Jabari Parkers on this team, regardless of age.

 

[moqui]

plus which, Ennis is Canadian and is having trouble getting used to playing on non-metric sized courts

(hat tip to the classic Blue Curtain post)

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

This is an excellent analysis and speaks to what most have been saying...Ennis' learning curve is critical...Good job!

 

[CaptainSyracuse]

Not sure I'm selling an "inexperience theory" to buy though. I'm presenting facts. (Well, the theory I guess is the impact of this inexperience on the offense in particular.)

Fact: This year's guards bring 547 mins of college game experience into the season, while last year's guards brought 2,859 mins into the season, or more than 5 times more.

Fact: The guards two years ago brought 4,856 mins into the season, or almost 9 times more than this year's guards.

Fact: In the decade I've charted, no SU team's guards had as little returning experience as this group - closest is 2006-2007, which returned 1,666 mins - or still 1,119 more mins than the experience of this year's guards.

And also consider: Yes, Mike G does have a redshirt year to consider - but, remember, he used this redshirt year to learn a totally new position (PG)!

In fact, coming out of high school, all major recruiting sites listed him as a small forward - Rivals, 247 & Scout - (though Scout listed him as a SF/SG). So, not only did Mike G have to focus more on being an SG, but he also learned a completely new (& very different) position in PG. This should be considered.

I disagree. 2002-2003 had less guard experience. You can not count Duany's 1937 minutes as guard experience. He was a small forward until he was moved to shooting guard as a senior.