Bill Connelly Preseason SP+ Projections

[TheCusian]

No doubt if you try to create something to deal with 150 teams its gonna break down at some point.. there is a reason top 20 teams only tend to range a small amount where teams 75-90 can go either direction alot more..

Lol. That’s the gap between the elite and everyone else. The difference between 5*/ 4* and 3*. More volatility with 3* players

 

[CapitalO]

The 2021 SU. football team will make Bill Connelly look like a jackass !!!!!

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

Lol. That’s the gap between the elite and everyone else. The difference between 5*/ 4* and 3*. More volatility with 3* players

I mean, yeah. It quantifies the obvious, but it puts everyone to the same standard, like any computerized system. You and I just know more about it because of who it is and who his friends are.

 

[ORRange]

Yeah, but, like, if your opinion is that we're going to be awful again, realistic or not, why bother?

Life long fan. I'll root forever, just don't have unrealistic orange colored glasses ,head in the sand optimism that a 1win team can win a road game against a good Ohio team that will go to bowl. I heard this nonsense last preseason about the upcoming Liberty game. So like I said, you chill. Its my opinion and my team.

 

[Finwad32]

 

[TheCusian]

I mean, yeah. It quantifies the obvious, but it puts everyone to the same standard, like any computerized system. You and I just know more about it because of who it is and who his friends are.

Yep - I don’t mind pointing out it’s flaws. I don’t think it’s perfect, but it’s record vs the spread in normal years is pretty solid. It takes every meaningful drive into consideration. It tries to take recruiting success seriously.

The “pro-take your Orange glasses off” crowd should love him lol

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

Yep - I don’t mind pointing out it’s flaws. I don’t think it’s perfect, but it’s record vs the spread in normal years is pretty solid. It takes every meaningful drive into consideration. It tries to take recruiting success seriously.

The “pro-take your Orange glasses off” crowd should love him lol

In some ways, it's kind of disappointing that the stats show the best teams are, in fact, the best teams. We've been conditioned by the Oakland A's and Moneyball to think that stats will turn things sideways.

 

[TheCusian]

In some ways, it's kind of disappointing that the stats show the best teams are, in fact, the best teams. We've been conditioned by the Oakland A's and Moneyball to think that stats will turn things sideways.

Indeed.

I also think that the thing we feel here is legit too - we have more info and know the program better than he could. So I try to use both sources of info, SP+ to stay grounded vs pre-season optimism here.

For example, I think using last years numbers to tell us very much about this year is nuts. The numbers were horrible for a bunch of reasons - I can't tell the difference between a COVID related asterisk and a "we just sucked at x" and OL injuries and "2 new coordinators and no camp"... But if this year is normal as far as camp, 2 or 3 good QB options, less OL injuries and new OL faces - the D continues to improve and know the system? I don't think we are close to 90 something. More like 50 in the SP+... We'll see. Just no cryptic posts from insiders about massive OL injuries this year please

 

[upperdeck]

as bad as it was, we were 3-5 games where just decent 4th quarter efforts we win. Not great efforts just decent.

NC/Pitt/Duke/Lib/BC/NC st All our Piers and we were in those games and half of them we played without the QBs we have this yr..

ND/Clem fell apart after the half and Clem it was the 4th.

 

[TexanMark]

as bad as it was, we were 3-5 games where just decent 4th quarter efforts we win. Not great efforts just decent.

NC/Pitt/Duke/Lib/BC/NC st All our Piers and we were in those games and half of them we played without the QBs we have this yr..

ND/Clem fell apart after the half and Clem it was the 4th.

Why Louisville was such a nut kick...

 

[Millhouse]

Preseason SP+ projections: Ranking all 130 FBS teams

Bill Connelly breaks down his yearly SP+ projections and sees how they line up with the Way-Too-Early 2021 Top 25.

www.espn.com

One spot behind Rutgers at 95.

If the numbers hold we’re probably going to be dogs at Ohio to start the year. I hope they do because I’ll take that bet.

Does he ever test his predictions? His methods are fine for predictions later on in a season. Some things that lead to wins aren't predictive so it can be useful to focus on predictive measures. But between seasions? Come on

Any napkin model can predict good teams will be good next year and bad teams will be bad, the rest of it is just goofy

 

[TheCusian]

Does he ever test his predictions? His methods are fine for predictions later on in a season. Some things that lead to wins aren't predictive so it can be useful to focus on predictive measures. But between seasions? Come on

Any napkin model can predict good teams will be good next year and bad teams will be bad, the rest of it is just goofy

Yeah, I think it's more the nature of the media beast than an honest attempt. The problem is also that there is so little data points per team that you have to use the previous year or you won't have anything of value until week 5.

 

[upperdeck]

or you could actually watch some teams play, look at the film of people they have coming in, look at the schedule, but thats alot of work..

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

or you could actually watch some teams play, look at the film of people they have coming in, look at the schedule, but thats alot of work..

That too has its limitations, and not everyone is a talent evaluator.

 

[upperdeck]

That too has its limitations, and not everyone is a talent evaluator.

thats not what I read on the Bball board.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

thats not what I read on the Bball board.

And no one gets that annoyed with KenPom.

 

[ImperialOrange]

thats not what I read on the Bball board.

Lot easier and less time consuming to pick apart 5 pretty easily assumed starters and benches vs 22 potential starters and benches. Football is much tougher to get a read on

 

[TheCusian]

or you could actually watch some teams play, look at the film of people they have coming in, look at the schedule, but thats alot of work..

He’s a stat guy. That’s what he does. Stats have limitations, but they can show you stuff the naked eye will miss.

the complete picture (both eye and stats) is the best way - but no one can do both of those things for every team

 

[TheCusian]

Lot easier and less time consuming to pick apart 5 pretty easily assumed starters and benches vs 22 potential starters and benches. Football is much tougher to get a read on

Less games dilutes the info too. More players over less time = less data

 

[storange]

I think we will be favored by 3 and I'd take Ohio on the moneyline. We aren't winning that game. This team is good and I don't like it as an opener. We lost to worse teams last year and the year before that...

Bet we win that one by alot

 

[ImperialOrange]

Less games dilutes the info too. More players over less time = less data

More injuries in football though. No Jordan rules unless you're Tom Brady

 

[RMH44]

He’s a stat guy. That’s what he does. Stats have limitations, but they can show you stuff the naked eye will miss.

the complete picture (both eye and stats) is the best way - but no one can do both of those things for every team

"Stats are for losers" FHC Scott Shafer

 

[ORRange]

Bet we win that one by alot

Ok