Why? it's the same mediocre team.
Why are four weeks in March more indicative than four months?
I understand what you are saying. Here are some reasons I think they will be quite good, better in the regular season than last year, but that doesn't mean they make the FF again (anything can happen in tourney).
1) Most of the starters are good and back for another year. We use the same rationale when we assess the quality of SU's team (or any team), i.e., good players back with another year of experience. The player who will dominate most I think is Behanan. He and Dieng down low are quite formidable.
2) Blackshear will be available all season. Didn't get a chance to show too much last year, but the dude is very good.
3) Kevin Ware is another good guard who will be better this year too.
4) Luke Hancock, a transfer from George Mason, is (from what I hear) a very good player (forward) and now available.
5) Decent supporting cast.
It is true that UofL typically underachieves and gets players hurt which contributes to underachievement. But certainly, they start out this year with the "potential" to be very good, and better than last year in the regular season. Just so they are good enough to beat Cal and UK!
With that said, will SU beat them this year? I sure as heck hope so!