Bowl will be decided in first 6 weeks

[Ish88888]

and he's also not at Pitt anymore so there's that to.

Yup, and while Pitt is on the rise, i think we take them this year, resulting in bowl eligibility

 

[Ish88888]

He's a stronger DC than HC and that's the position he has now. Not saying I think we'll lose but lets not sell him short because of his failure here. Football is full of guys that are very good at one thing and horrible at another.

Well stated, loved him as our D coordinator. Boy, were those days fun and we jumped and beat some big offenses! #WVU #THEVILLE

 

[sufandu]

His weapons are primarily built around a slow, pounding running game which could benefit us as our offense is built for speed and can wear down a team. And if we have any semblance of a running game,...anything can happen. We are an underdog to beat LSU, but it is not an impossibility.

Fully agree that we will have to respect what the OC can do with good players.

If that slow pounding running game keeps our offense sitting on the bench holding their helmets, we'll have trouble wearing them down.

 

[HtownOrange]

If that slow pounding running game keeps our offense sitting on the bench holding their helmets, we'll have trouble wearing them down.

In this scenario, SU would only need one stop more than LSU, assuming equal possessions.

I am not predicting an SU win. I don't believe beating LSU is an impossibility.

 

[sufandu]

In this scenario, SU would only need one stop more than LSU, assuming equal possessions.

I am not predicting an SU win. I don't believe beating LSU is an impossibility.

I don't either. I just think we're giving our offense way too much credit to wear teams out when our defense had a hard time getting our offense back on the field last year. If possessions worked like lacrosse our defense might not matter. But no matter what, the other team gets to have the ball and our defense has to get it back to our offense.

I think we'll be more efficient on offense with more ypp and fewer 3 and outs, but we still need the defense to at least go from atrocious to subpar so that we can really reap the rewards of the offense.

 

[JoeSU]

Healthy this team should steamroll Wake and BC at home.

The team must feel they owe one to Wake, after last year's loss playing in a hurricane which completely neutralized our passing game. The Demon Deacons will face a different offense playing in the dome this year (and hopefully a better defense).

 

[HtownOrange]

I don't either. I just think we're giving our offense way too much credit to wear teams out when our defense had a hard time getting our offense back on the field last year. If possessions worked like lacrosse our defense might not matter. But no matter what, the other team gets to have the ball and our defense has to get it back to our offense.

I think we'll be more efficient on offense with more ypp and fewer 3 and outs, but we still need the defense to at least go from atrocious to subpar so that we can really reap the rewards of the offense.

I understand your POV, I believe many people are overlooking the advances and experience gained from last season.
- #1 QB misses 4 games due to injury, #2 steps up
- Defense decimated by injury
- Players on both sides of the ball learning new system
- S&C program was behind the curve
- New staff
- New System
- OL was raw
- Underclassmen were pressed into significant playing time
- The Wake game was played in shadows of a hurricane (fluke weather, we likely would have won the game otherwise)
- No significant running game (in part due to OL)
- Should have won the Pitt game, nearly did so with a backup QB, decimated defense, etc.
- Played well in a few games against high profile teams
- Pulled an upset over highly ranked VPI

Which brings us to this season:
- #1 QB is healthy, bigger, stronger
- #2 QB proved he can play in the system (see Pitt game)
- Fr QB is doing well in practice, has the physique to play if necessary (or picks up the system better than expected)
- FR RB looks the part and will see playing time
- Other RBs have more time in S&C and a more experienced OL
- OL has more depth, experience, S&C
- Receiver Corp looses two talented receivers but appears to have stoked up quite well ( I expect more passing yards and rushing yards, in line with HCDB's targets)
- Defense is mostly healthy, has more experience, depth and S&C - DL losses will hurt, but any improvement on defense anywhere will only help other defense areas
- This team was essentially a 6-6 team last season (Wake, Pitt), there is no reason to expect a drop off from that level
- The kids believe in this system; it's fun, fast and furious
- All but the Freshman know what they are up against, no surprises!
- 2nd year in system: stability, consistency, camaraderie, knowing what is expected of self, each other. staff and team as a whole
- This is the year the offense will fully gel (around the mid-point of the season)
- The kids know they can win (VPI)

I understand there are variables, the same with every team out there. Managing the variables and what is in your control is how teams win. Sure, it's easier at a factory school where you plug and play the next 4 star kid when one kid is injured. What many seem to miss is that HCDB's system is a plug and play, K.I.S.S (Keep it simple stupid - more family friendly than s***head), aside from Clemson, FSU and LSU, no other team on the schedule is really ready for that kind of team. Sure, Miami has talent, but they are lacking a true starter at QB and now RB is injured. Sure, Petrino recruits some talent to Louisville, but let's not place him on the elite level, he has never proved himself in manner. HCDB has a history of using the tools he has in front of him and getting performance out of them above what would normally be expected.

I think that 6-6 is the floor for this team. If they played in the Atlantic, I would think 8 wins should be expected. Just opinions, nothing more.

 

[gbo]

I understand your POV, I believe many people are overlooking the advances and experience gained from last season.
- #1 QB misses 4 games due to injury, #2 steps up
- Defense decimated by injury
- Players on both sides of the ball learning new system
- S&C program was behind the curve
- New staff
- New System
- OL was raw
- Underclassmen were pressed into significant playing time
- The Wake game was played in shadows of a hurricane (fluke weather, we likely would have won the game otherwise)
- No significant running game (in part due to OL)
- Should have won the Pitt game, nearly did so with a backup QB, decimated defense, etc.
- Played well in a few games against high profile teams
- Pulled an upset over highly ranked VPI

Which brings us to this season:
- #1 QB is healthy, bigger, stronger
- #2 QB proved he can play in the system (see Pitt game)
- Fr QB is doing well in practice, has the physique to play if necessary (or picks up the system better than expected)
- FR RB looks the part and will see playing time
- Other RBs have more time in S&C and a more experienced OL
- OL has more depth, experience, S&C
- Receiver Corp looses two talented receivers but appears to have stoked up quite well ( I expect more passing yards and rushing yards, in line with HCDB's targets)
- Defense is mostly healthy, has more experience, depth and S&C - DL losses will hurt, but any improvement on defense anywhere will only help other defense areas
- This team was essentially a 6-6 team last season (Wake, Pitt), there is no reason to expect a drop off from that level
- The kids believe in this system; it's fun, fast and furious
- All but the Freshman know what they are up against, no surprises!
- 2nd year in system: stability, consistency, camaraderie, knowing what is expected of self, each other. staff and team as a whole
- This is the year the offense will fully gel (around the mid-point of the season)
- The kids know they can win (VPI)

I understand there are variables, the same with every team out there. Managing the variables and what is in your control is how teams win. Sure, it's easier at a factory school where you plug and play the next 4 star kid when one kid is injured. What many seem to miss is that HCDB's system is a plug and play, K.I.S.S (Keep it simple stupid - more family friendly than s***head), aside from Clemson, FSU and LSU, no other team on the schedule is really ready for that kind of team. Sure, Miami has talent, but they are lacking a true starter at QB and now RB is injured. Sure, Petrino recruits some talent to Louisville, but let's not place him on the elite level, he has never proved himself in manner. HCDB has a history of using the tools he has in front of him and getting performance out of them above what would normally be expected.

I think that 6-6 is the floor for this team. If they played in the Atlantic, I would think 8 wins should be expected. Just opinions, nothing more.

I think you meant Coastal here but I don't disagree with what you are saying. The season for me hinges on the defense and getting stops. I think the offense takes a big step forward in year 2 under Babers so you are going to score some points...but will you be able to stop anyone. That's the key.

 

[PhatOrange]

I don't care how good Shafer might be as a D-Coordinator. He's coaching MTSU players. Does he have the personnel to play his aggressive blitz happy scheme? How's that going to work against Syracuse ? He's going to have to play 5 & 6 defensive backs against us. Does he have 4 good d-lineman who are going to disrupt our backfield, how's their depth. Can they play at our tempo? What's he going to do with his linebackers? blitz them drop them into coverage? How will they matchup 1v1 against Erv or even Ravian Pierce at TE ? Can his DB's defend 4 and 5 wide? Can they play one on one, can they press and jam? Give us a cushion and we'll bubble screen them to death.

Shafer is going to have his hands full. If they win, it's not going to be because of his defense.

 

[CousCuse]

I don't care how good Shafer might be as a D-Coordinator. He's coaching MTSU players. Does he have the personnel to play his aggressive blitz happy scheme? How's that going to work against Syracuse ? He's going to have to play 5 & 6 defensive backs against us. Does he have 4 good d-lineman who are going to disrupt our backfield, how's their depth. Can they play at our tempo? What's he going to do with his linebackers? blitz them drop them into coverage? How will they matchup 1v1 against Erv or even Ravian Pierce at TE ? Can his DB's defend 4 and 5 wide? Can they play one on one, can they press and jam? Give us a cushion and we'll bubble screen them to death.

Shafer is going to have his hands full. If they win, it's not going to be because of his defense.

Every team in the CUSA plays no huddle offense.

 

[PhatOrange]

Every team in the CUSA plays no huddle offense.

understood; and against pretty bad teams, but if they can handle our tempo that's fine, Shafer's D scheme however might not be built for that. He's always liked to sub with different personnel packages. He won't be able to. It's not about Shafer, it's about his personnel.

Vandy scored 47 points against them last year. They get Vandy to open the season the week before us. I'll watch intently.

FAU scored 56 points., Texas San Antonio 45, Marshal 42, FIU 35. They gave up a boatload of points against inferior competition.

It's going to be a shootout.

2017 Camp Insider

 

[bcubs9497]

understood; and against pretty bad teams, but if they can handle our tempo that's fine, Shafer's D scheme however might not be built for that. He's always liked to sub with different personnel packages. He won't be able to. It's not about Shafer, it's about his personnel.

Vandy scored 47 points against them last year. They get Vandy to open the season the week before us. I'll watch intently.

FAU scored 56 points., Texas San Antonio 45, Marshal 42, FIU 35. They gave up a boatload of points against inferior competition.

It's going to be a shootout.

2017 Camp Insider

You're forgetting Shafer's secret weapon; the OL's ability to draw a flag at a moment's notice.

 

[sufandu]

I understand your POV, I believe many people are overlooking the advances and experience gained from last season.
- #1 QB misses 4 games due to injury, #2 steps up
- Defense decimated by injury
- Players on both sides of the ball learning new system
- S&C program was behind the curve
- New staff
- New System
- OL was raw
- Underclassmen were pressed into significant playing time
- The Wake game was played in shadows of a hurricane (fluke weather, we likely would have won the game otherwise)
- No significant running game (in part due to OL)
- Should have won the Pitt game, nearly did so with a backup QB, decimated defense, etc.
- Played well in a few games against high profile teams
- Pulled an upset over highly ranked VPI

Which brings us to this season:
- #1 QB is healthy, bigger, stronger
- #2 QB proved he can play in the system (see Pitt game)
- Fr QB is doing well in practice, has the physique to play if necessary (or picks up the system better than expected)
- FR RB looks the part and will see playing time
- Other RBs have more time in S&C and a more experienced OL
- OL has more depth, experience, S&C
- Receiver Corp looses two talented receivers but appears to have stoked up quite well ( I expect more passing yards and rushing yards, in line with HCDB's targets)
- Defense is mostly healthy, has more experience, depth and S&C - DL losses will hurt, but any improvement on defense anywhere will only help other defense areas
- This team was essentially a 6-6 team last season (Wake, Pitt), there is no reason to expect a drop off from that level
- The kids believe in this system; it's fun, fast and furious
- All but the Freshman know what they are up against, no surprises!
- 2nd year in system: stability, consistency, camaraderie, knowing what is expected of self, each other. staff and team as a whole
- This is the year the offense will fully gel (around the mid-point of the season)
- The kids know they can win (VPI)

I understand there are variables, the same with every team out there. Managing the variables and what is in your control is how teams win. Sure, it's easier at a factory school where you plug and play the next 4 star kid when one kid is injured. What many seem to miss is that HCDB's system is a plug and play, K.I.S.S (Keep it simple stupid - more family friendly than s***head), aside from Clemson, FSU and LSU, no other team on the schedule is really ready for that kind of team. Sure, Miami has talent, but they are lacking a true starter at QB and now RB is injured. Sure, Petrino recruits some talent to Louisville, but let's not place him on the elite level, he has never proved himself in manner. HCDB has a history of using the tools he has in front of him and getting performance out of them above what would normally be expected.

I think that 6-6 is the floor for this team. If they played in the Atlantic, I would think 8 wins should be expected. Just opinions, nothing more.

I like most of your points. I think saying 6-6 is the floor is optimisitic. We could be a much better team and only pick up one win. I think our oline has to show up before we can say no other team is ready for our offense.

I expect to see improvement on both sides of the ball but really don't have any feeling as to what I think it's gonna look like with our record. I'm excited to watch it play out though. More excited than I've been in a long time.

 

[Scooch]

Just so I'm clear... this thread is suggesting that we have a really good shot to beat LSU on the road, but we should be afraid of Middle Tennessee State at home?

Want to make sure I'm following along properly.

 

[PhatOrange]

You're forgetting Shafer's secret weapon; the OL's ability to draw a flag at a moment's notice.

my expectation is for that to be cleaned up and cut way down this year.

 

[PhatOrange]

Just so I'm clear... this thread is suggesting that we have a really good shot to beat LSU on the road, but we should be afraid of Middle Tennessee State at home?

Want to make sure I'm following along properly.

yes because Scott Shafer.

 

[bcubs9497]

yes because Scott Shafer.

I expect a close game against MTSU. LSU will probably win by 20.

 

[elimunelson]

FYI USA Today's Poll. I am shocked 3 coaches voted for us.

Others Receiving Votes
Washington State 99; Colorado 72; TCU 58; Boise State 49; Notre Dame 49; Texas A&M 46; Pittsburgh 45; North Carolina State 39; Oregon 37; Northwestern 25; Nebraska 23; Memphis 22; Arkansas 22; Mississippi State 19; San Diego State 18; Appalachian State 11; Brigham Young 10; Georgia Tech 10; Tulsa 10; Wyoming 9; Western Michigan 8; Temple 8; North Carolina 8; Houston 7; Troy 6; Minnesota 6; Iowa 5; Louisiana Tech 4; Syracuse 3; Arizona 2; Army 1; Colorado State 1; Michigan State 1; Maryland 1; Toledo 1; UCLA 1.

 

[OrangeDW]

I'm not conceding anything in the Dome, including Clemson.

Remember they were #1 in the country when we played them 2 years ago and we were down 31-24 to them and we had them stopped deep in their territory. On 3rd and long we chased Watson out of bounds and looked to be getting the ball back, but nope....illegal hands to the face call. On replay, there was nothing there either. We had just had like a 97 yard drive where we shredded them for a TD, then we had a huge hit on the kickoff. The Dome was rockin, we had all the momentum. Shafer went nuts after that call too and got an unsportsmanlike penalty. I feel like they called something else on us that was cheap on that drive too. Refs handed them the ball and 30 yards. Sure enough they came down and got points after all that.

We're better than we were in 2015. Dungey was out for that game too. You never know. We played LSU tough at home that year too. VT was a great win last year, but I think we're due for a monumental home win soon.

 

[st_machine]

Team should go 7-5.win all the winnable games, lose all the likely losses.
steal 1 win you shouldn't, drop one game you shouldn't. still 7-5.
Offense scored plenty last yr.
if the defense is giving up 50-70 pts again this yr, then the job didnt get done in the
offseason.If they did their job and the defense is on the happy side of respectable, we could go 8-4.

 

[kirbivore]

The Orange will upset lsu.

 

[kirbivore]

FYI USA Today's Poll. I am shocked 3 coaches voted for us.

Others Receiving Votes
Washington State 99; Colorado 72; TCU 58; Boise State 49; Notre Dame 49; Texas A&M 46; Pittsburgh 45; North Carolina State 39; Oregon 37; Northwestern 25; Nebraska 23; Memphis 22; Arkansas 22; Mississippi State 19; San Diego State 18; Appalachian State 11; Brigham Young 10; Georgia Tech 10; Tulsa 10; Wyoming 9; Western Michigan 8; Temple 8; North Carolina 8; Houston 7; Troy 6; Minnesota 6; Iowa 5; Louisiana Tech 4; Syracuse 3; Arizona 2; Army 1; Colorado State 1; Michigan State 1; Maryland 1; Toledo 1; UCLA 1.

Babers won those votes in a card game?

 

[TheCusian]

I don't care how good Shafer might be as a D-Coordinator. He's coaching MTSU players. Does he have the personnel to play his aggressive blitz happy scheme? How's that going to work against Syracuse ? He's going to have to play 5 & 6 defensive backs against us. Does he have 4 good d-lineman who are going to disrupt our backfield, how's their depth. Can they play at our tempo? What's he going to do with his linebackers? blitz them drop them into coverage? How will they matchup 1v1 against Erv or even Ravian Pierce at TE ? Can his DB's defend 4 and 5 wide? Can they play one on one, can they press and jam? Give us a cushion and we'll bubble screen them to death.

Shafer is going to have his hands full. If they win, it's not going to be because of his defense.

He's in year 1, like game 2 of a brand new system too. Vs a Babers system that is ready to explode.

I also remember how his kiwi pal couldn't stop our screen game last year. Reminded me of a Shafer D vs ND at MetLife.

 

[djorange1989]

He's in year 1, like game 2 of a brand new system too. Vs a Babers system that is ready to explode.

I also remember how his kiwi pal couldn't stop our screen game last year. Reminded me of a Shafer D vs ND at MetLife.

And Kiwi pal was facing Mahoney, not Dungey(no offense to Mahoney). MTSU may put up 35-38 on us but we will put up 50 on them

 

[SUalldway]

Babers won those votes in a card game?

We got 2 more votes in the poll than Michigan State!

 

[SUalldway]

FYI USA Today's Poll. I am shocked 3 coaches voted for us.

Others Receiving Votes
Washington State 99; Colorado 72; TCU 58; Boise State 49; Notre Dame 49; Texas A&M 46; Pittsburgh 45; North Carolina State 39; Oregon 37; Northwestern 25; Nebraska 23; Memphis 22; Arkansas 22; Mississippi State 19; San Diego State 18; Appalachian State 11; Brigham Young 10; Georgia Tech 10; Tulsa 10; Wyoming 9; Western Michigan 8; Temple 8; North Carolina 8; Houston 7; Troy 6; Minnesota 6; Iowa 5; Louisiana Tech 4; Syracuse 3; Arizona 2; Army 1; Colorado State 1; Michigan State 1; Maryland 1; Toledo 1; UCLA 1.

It's also nice to see that, for the first time that I can remember, the Notre Dame hype-machine didn't work to give them an over-rated ranking.